http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-19.htmlReview Turkish political tensions seem to back on the agenda in Turkey. The newspaper Taraf stated in an article that a new court bid to ban the ruling AK Party could be launched as soon as Friday. Furthermore, on Thursday afternoon, Turkish police detained around 20 people, including retired and active military officers, in connection with the alleged plot against the Turkish government. Yesterday, the Polish Minutes from the last monetary policy setting meeting in February were published.Fri, 19 Mar 2010 06:17:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-17.htmlReview  Czech retails sales in January disappointed strongly when they fell by 5.0% y/y in January (down from December’s -1.9% y/y), which was significantly more than we and consensus expected. The outcome confirms that private consumption remains depressed. Looking ahead, we forecast negative retail sales in the coming months and given the combination of subdued private consumption and low inflation, the Czech central bank will have no need to tighten monetary policy conditions thisWed, 17 Mar 2010 06:27:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-15.htmlReview It was a slow day macro wise on Friday. Latvia posted another current account surplus, but the trade balance was still negative (bigger trade deficit than the current account surplus), which indicates continued difficulties in being competitive on the international export market.  Preview  The EU meeting in Brussels today will be in the limelight. In particular, focus will be on whether any solutions for Greece are produced. The CEE markets are likely to follow the riskMon, 15 Mar 2010 14:14:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-12.htmlReview Data on Hungarian inflation in February was released yesterday. Hungarian inflation surprised significantly on the downside. Hungarian inflation in February came out at 5.7% y/y compared to 6.4% y/y in January and much better than our forecast of 6.3% y/y and consensus expectation of 6.1% y/y. The final numbers on Q4 GDP growth in Latvia show that Latvian GDP dropped by 16.9% y/y in Q4 – slightly better than the preliminary reading of -17.7% y/y. South African manufacturing productionFri, 12 Mar 2010 06:21:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-11.htmlReview Poland sold 2-year government bonds with very good demand (bid to cover over 3). We remain positive on fiscally strong CEE sovereigns relative to PIIGS. Yesterday didn’t offer too much by way of macro data but we note that Lithuania posted a larger-than-expected current account deficit, which is testament to the difficulties of rebalancing. Preview Hungarian inflation data will be the main macro event in the CEE today. The last reading was a significant upside surprise and should we seeThu, 11 Mar 2010 06:19:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-10.htmlReview Latvian unemployment has continued to rise . The increase was actually larger than expected, but the retreat of the Latvian economy should come as no surprise. The keel-haul will continue. Hungarian industrial production surged. To our great surprise the figure jumped by 8.8% in seasonally and work day adjusted terms. At the same time Czech inflation was lower than expected, which reinforces our view of continued low Czech rates. Political strife in Iceland. The rejection of the IcesaveWed, 10 Mar 2010 06:26:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-08.htmlReview As we expected, deflationary pressure in Estonian eased somewhat with inflation in February decelerating by -0.1% y/y up from -0.7% y/y in January. This was mainly influenced by higher clothing and footwear prices (end of seasonal sales) and higher transportation costs. Estonia’s finance ministry lowered its estimate for the 2009 budget deficit to 1.7% of GDP, saying the European Union requirements had clearly succeeded. However, the significant part of these improvements are due toMon, 08 Mar 2010 06:23:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-05.htmlReview Yesterday, during the business presentation at Bloomberg news agency, the South African Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan, said that he is looking at the impact of the carry trade and considering the options he has to curb currency volatility. At the same time, Gordhan said that South Africa has no plans to impose capital controls as did, for instance, Brazil in October last year with its tax on capital inflows with the intention of halting the sharp appreciation of the BRL. It is knownFri, 05 Mar 2010 06:32:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-03.htmlReview The pace of decline in the Estonian retail trade has decelerated further. In January, retail trade declined by 10% y/y up from 15% y/y in December. Nonetheless, this improvement was broadly expected given the positive base effect. Fundamental factors that affect the retail trade outlook remain weak this year. We expect the unemployment rate to pick up and wage disinflation to continue further. Only the base effect will drive less negative domestic demand growth figures.  The PolishWed, 03 Mar 2010 06:23:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-02.htmlReview  Yesterday, PMI for February published across the EMEA region provided a rather mixed picture. Even though the Polish PMI rose further in February to 52.4 (up from January’s 51.0), the increase was smaller compared to its regional peers and it is clearly now lagging the Czech and Hungarian PMI. In any case, we must admit that such a strong rise in Hungarian PMI in February to 55.9 (up from January’s 53.5) is hard to understand, as no other Hungarian data shows that there should beTue, 02 Mar 2010 06:34:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-01.htmlReview The pace of decline in Lithuanian retail trade decelerated in January showing a decline of 12.2% y/y up from 23.6% y/y ; the outcome was marginally worse than our expectation of 9.3% y/y fall. As was broadly expected, the main reason for the improvement was the positive base effect which will continue to play a major role. We do not expect an improvement in disposable income outlooks thus consumption will remain sluggish as well. Latvian retail trade improved in January, it declined byMon, 01 Mar 2010 06:58:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-03-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-25.htmlReview Rate decision in Poland came out completely in line with expectations when the Polish central bank left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%. Furthermore, in line with our expectations the Central Bank kept the neutral bias. Some in the market have, however, speculated that the NBP could change it to a tightening bias. South African inflation in January unexpectedly dipped to 6.2% y/y (down from December’s 6.3% y/y), despite it being broadly expected that inflation would increaseThu, 25 Feb 2010 06:33:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-23.htmlReview The Hungarian central bank decided to cut its base rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it to an all-time low of 5.75%. In January Lithuanian IP improved only marginally to minus 6.8% y/y from minus 7.3% y/y in December. However, this improvement was mostly the result of a low base effect. On a month-by-month basis production contracted by 7.2%. It appears as if the rise in electricity prices negatively affected Lithuanian manufacturing. On the other hand, manufacturing excludingTue, 23 Feb 2010 05:54:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-22.htmlReview  The rating agency Standard & Poors has upgraded Turkey's long-term credit rating by one notch today to BB, maintaining a positive outlook. The S&P among other things said that “the upgrade reflects our view of the Turkish government's improving economic policy flexibility as a result of its strong track record in steadily reducing the debt burden over the past decade”. The upgrade obviously is positive news – even though S&P seems to be a bit behind the curve onMon, 22 Feb 2010 06:38:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-19.htmlReview Political tensions are once again on the rise in Turkey with accusations flying between the Turkish government and the Turkish judiciary on Thursday. The tension arose after the prosecutor, İlhan Cihaner was arrested on Wednesday on charges of belonging to a group that allegedly plotted to overthrow the Islamist-oriented AKParty government. The Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors have reacted angrily against the arrest of Mr. Cihaner and is accusing the government of oversteppingFri, 19 Feb 2010 06:41:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-17.htmlReview Yesterday, the Polish president appointed three new members of the Polish central bank’s Monetary Policy Council (RPP); Adam Glapinski, Andrzej Kazmierczak and Zyta Gilowska. We regard all as euro sceptics. We expect Glapinski and Kazmierczak to act as moderate doves on the RPP while Gilowska will probably behave as more of a centrist. Entirely as expected the Turkish central bank (TCMB) yesterday left its key policy rate unchanged at 6.50%. Preview The EMEA has a fairly light calendarWed, 17 Feb 2010 06:47:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-16.htmlReview Polish CPI came out on the high side of consensus expectations, but not enough to move markets much. The IMF warned Hungary on the risk of not fulfilling the budget targets conditional for IMF loans. Preview The rate decision in Turkey is due today. We expect an unchanged rate at 6.50%, which leaves Turkey with continued upside risks to inflation. In Poland we will see wage data, which may attract greater attention than usual after the very high numbers for December. Will there be aTue, 16 Feb 2010 06:38:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-15.htmlReview Wrangling within the EU about how to get to grips with the Greek situation continues to dominate the market. However, there were some interesting data out on Friday. GDP throughout the EU disappointed, but one of the biggest disappointments was in the Czech Republic, which posted a q/q decline of 0.6%. The other notable piece of economic data in CEE on Friday was Hungarian inflation. Hopes for a rate cut any time soon should fade in the wake of the 6.4% y/y inflation rate in January.Mon, 15 Feb 2010 06:42:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-12.htmlReview Yesterday, preliminary Q409 GDP figures were published in Estonia: the fall of 9.4% y/y was better than expected, below our forecast of -15.3% y/y and a smaller contraction compared to -15.6% in Q309. Furthermore, Q4 GDP grew on a quarterly basis, by 2.6%.  South African manufacturing production in December surprised on the upside, growing 3.2% y/y, well above the consensus expectation of 0.1% y/y. The positive outturn clearly reflects inventory restocking. The manufacturing sectorFri, 12 Feb 2010 07:44:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-11.htmlReview Yesterday’s Minutes of the Hungarian central bank (MNB) showed that all MPC members voted for a further reduction in interest rates, but given some concerns regarding Greece and Dubai, the less aggressive 25bp rate reduction gained a majority. Nonetheless, three MPC members voted for a larger cut of 50bp. Overall, the tone of the Minutes suggests that the MNB will likely continue monetary easing given the absence of demand-led inflationary pressure and the depressed economy. The MNBThu, 11 Feb 2010 06:52:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-10.htmlReview Latvian Q4 GDP fell 17.7% y/y, which was worse than our forecast of -15.3% y/y and the consensus expectation of -15.9% y/y. There is clearly no sign of recovery in the Latvian economy yet. The “recovery” relative to Q3 (Q3 GDP down 19.0% y/y) was all driven by a base effect. Czech inflation in January was less than expected at 1.2% m/m and 0.7% y/y. The monthly inflation rise was mainly due to VAT and other indirect taxes hikes adding about 1 percentage point to the overall figure.Wed, 10 Feb 2010 06:20:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-09.htmlReview  Czech unemployment increased to a higher-than-expected 9.8% in January, up from December’s 9.2%. We see Czech unemployment continuing to rise in the coming months.  The deflationary process continues in Latvia. In January CPI dropped by 3.1% y/y – more than our forecast of -2.7% y/y, but less than the consensus expectation of -3.3% y/y. Overall the continued deflationary process is necessary to re-establish Latvian competitiveness. In fact if one assumes that Latvia’sTue, 09 Feb 2010 06:20:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-08.htmlReview  Estonian CPI decreased by 0.7% y/y in January. The outcome was lower than our -0.2% y/y estimate and was mainly due to our underestimating the decline in prices for non-regulated goods and services such as clothing and footwear, which dropped by -3.8% m/m. As expected, the hike in excise duties pushed up consumer prices in January. Hungarian preliminary industrial production in December disappointed when it showed a rise of only 1% y/y, versus consensus expectation of 4.8% y/y.Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:16:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-04.htmlReview As broadly expected, the Romanian central bank (NBR) cut its key policy rate by 50bp to 7.00% on Wednesday morning. The recent strengthening of the Romanian leu combined with the secured tranche of the IMF loan allowed the NBR to cut further. Looking ahead, the NBR will most likely continue its monetary easing, but that will largely depend on development of the Romanian leu given a fairly high risk of spill-over from the Greek situation, triggering pressure on the leu.  TurkishThu, 04 Feb 2010 06:44:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-03.htmlReview Last night the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that the government had not approved the euro convergence plans, as the junior partner in the government coalition, the Polish Peasant Party (PSL), had some doubts. This is clearly bad news and is an indication that PSL does not support Finance Minister Rostowski’s plans for fiscal tightening. Yesterday Fitch affirmed Romania’s “BB+” long-term foreign currency rating and revised the outlook to stable from negative. This comes onWed, 03 Feb 2010 06:38:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-02.htmlReview While January PMIs that were published yesterday across the EMEA region were generally better than expected, Polish PMI in January disappointed when it showed an unexpected drop to 51.0, down from 52.4 in December. The setback was mainly due to slower growth of output and new orders compared to December. By contrast, Hungarian PMI in January surprised well on the upside, increasing to 53.5, from 49.1 in December. This strong increase looks somewhat overdone, and we are likely to seeTue, 02 Feb 2010 06:33:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-01.htmlReview In December 2009 the slump in Estonian retail sales slowed somewhat, falling by 15% y/y, up from -17.1% y/y in November. However this happened mostly due to seasonal sales. Industrial production for December disappointed us by falling 8.3% y/y – even though the outcome was an improvement compared to November’s 13.7% y/y fall, it was mainly due to a positive base effect rather than positive fundamentals. Thus, in our view, uncertainties regarding the more optimistic scenario for theMon, 01 Feb 2010 06:29:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-02-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-29.htmlReview Poland’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in 2009 , slightly above consensus of 1.6% y/y and our projection of 1.4% y/y, confirming that Poland is the strongestgrowing economy in the EU. Yesterday, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that he will not run for President this year. This is a clear indication that Tusk is worried he would not be able to beat President Lech Kaczyński. Tusk's party Civic Platform (PO) has not yet announced who will run against Kaczyński instead of TuskFri, 29 Jan 2010 06:21:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-28.htmlReview South African inflation increased to 6.3% y/y, up from 5.8% y/y in November. Although breaking the upper end of the inflation target of 3–6%, this is only temporary and due to technical base effects. The IMF has successfully completed its review of Romania’s EUR20bn loan deal, recommending that its Washington-based Board disburse the 3rd and 4th tranches of the loan that were stalled last year due to the political crisis. Furthermore, EU Commissioner Fabienne Ilzkovitz said that RomaniaThu, 28 Jan 2010 06:17:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-27.htmlReview As expected, the Polish central bank to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% at its monetary policy setting meeting yesterday. The ensuing press conference didn’t bring anything new and was neutral rather than hawkish. Although the South African central bank’s rate decision to keep rates at 7.00% was in line with expectations, the statement was fairly dovish and signalled that the monetary easing might not be over yet.   Polish retail sales in December surprised on theWed, 27 Jan 2010 06:24:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-26.htmlReview Yesterday, the Hungarian central bank decided to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, bringing it to 6.00%. The decision to cut is not overly surprising given the recent weaker macroeconomic data out of Hungary and the relatively strong forint. The statement following the rate decision in Hungary was relatively balanced and little changed compared to a month ago, clearly indicating that the MNB’s monetary council is keeping the door open for further rate cuts. Hungarian retail sales inTue, 26 Jan 2010 06:44:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-25.htmlReview  Fitch raised its outlook on Russia’s credit rating to stable from negative and affirmed its long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating at ‘BBB’. This reflects greater confidence in economic and financial stability after the surge of oil prices.  Russia's Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, at the conference on the modernization of the Russian economy, said that Russia needs to reach a budget deficit of no more than 1% of GDP after 2012, with the governmentMon, 25 Jan 2010 06:26:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-22.htmlReview Polish industrial production in December disappointed with growth of 7.4% y/y, which was below November’s 9.8% y/y and much less than the consensus of 12.2% y/y. Industrial production in Lithuanian further indicated a recovery trend in December with the pace of the slowdown decelerating to 7.3% y/y. Furthermore we expect to see a positive outcome as early as January 2010, but it should be mentioned that a strong positive base effect would play an important role. Central Bank of RussiaFri, 22 Jan 2010 06:27:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-21.htmlReview A financial conference in Vienna yesterday was attended by many central bank officials from the CEE region such as Czech central bank vice governor Miroslav Singer, Hungarian central bank governor Andras Simor and Romanian Deputy Governor Cristian Popa. While some were fairly upbeat on this year’s GDP growth prospects, such as Singer who said that the Czech economy could grow by around 2%, and Popa who sees Romanian GDP growth in 2010 of 1.5%, Simor said that “this year is going to be aThu, 21 Jan 2010 06:35:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-20.htmlReview Wage growth in Hungary published yesterday morning disappointed strongly, falling a further 3.0% in November after a 1.6% y/y drop in October, despite consensus expecting the pace of decline to slow somewhat. By contrast, Polish wage growth for December surprised significantly on the upside, coming out at 6.5% y/y, up from November’s 2.3% y/y and well above consensus of 3.2% y/y and our 5.2% y/y forecast. Yesterday the Icelandic government announced that the Icesave referendum will takeWed, 20 Jan 2010 06:36:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-19.htmlReview South African PMI rose to 52.5 in December, up from 50.3 in November and significantly better than 51 expected by consensus. This is the fifth consecutive month that PMI has risen, signalling that activity in the manufacturing sector is continuing to recover. Preview Polish labour data will be in the spotlight today. While we do not expect any major surprise on employment data, we could see an upward surprise on wage data. Hence, we expect Polish wage growth of 5.2% y/y in December –Tue, 19 Jan 2010 08:20:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-18.htmlReview The Czech current account swung into a deficit of CZK1.61bn in November . The main culprit behind the deficit was a widening gap on the income balance side. Czech December PPI declined 0.8% y/y (up from a 2.4% y/y fall in November) coming out more or less in line with expectations. Rising PPI reflects the upward trend in commodity prices abroad on the back of the ongoing global economic recovery. We expect subdued inflationary pressures as it seems that the recovery of the Czech economyMon, 18 Jan 2010 06:31:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-15.htmlReview As broadly expected, the Turkish central bank left its key policy rate unchanged at 6.50%. Polish inflation in December came out at 3.5% y/y – slightly lower than the consensus expectation of 3.6% y/y but in line with our forecast. The slightly downward surprise relative to consensus was not a big market mover. Hungarian inflation in December came out at 5.6% y/y, up from November’s 5.2% y/y and slightly lower than consensus of 5.7% y/y but above our forecast of 5.5% y/y. We continue toFri, 15 Jan 2010 07:13:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-14.htmlReview Yesterday, Poland’s upper house of Parliament approved three candidates for the new MPC nominated by the ruling coalition – Andrzej Rzonca, Jan Winiecki and Jerzy Hausner. We view them all as well qualified for the job and expect them to be somewhat on the hawkish side, with Jan Winiecki likely to be the most hawkish member within the new MPC. Yesterday, Czech retail sales surprised well on the downside, falling 4.9% y/y in November. It was generally expected that the pace ofThu, 14 Jan 2010 06:28:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-13.htmlReview  Romanian inflation remained flat at 4.7% y/y in December compared to November . With inflation likely to continue to inch down (given the non-existent inflationary pressures in the economy), it is most likely that, following the surprise rate cut in January, the Romanian central bank will continue its monetary easing going forward to fight the economic crisis. Nonetheless, we still think that given the ongoing political and financial uncertainties, the NBR risks renewed sellingWed, 13 Jan 2010 06:33:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2010-01-13.html