http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-14.htmlReview Polish September inflation surprised yesterday on the downside, coming out at 3.9% y/y (vs 4.1% y/y consensus expectations and down from 4.3% y/y in August). The outcome was, however, perfectly in line with our estimate for September. The Lithuanian current account deficit deteriorated further in August, reaching LTL235.6m, up from LTL215.3m in July. The current trend was contrary to our expectations as we had expected to see a minor surplus for the month. Behind the numbers is near nilFri, 14 Oct 2011 05:39:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-13.htmlReview South African manufacturing soared in August, with the annual reading of 5.6% beating the consensus estimate of -0.6% y/y by a large margin! Manufacturing growth had sunk 6.2% y/y in July, effected by strikes and the general global soft patch in global activity levels, but as the impact from the strike has faded, the industrial numbers have quickly normalised with businesses rebuilding inventories. Preview We expect the Lithuanian current account position to improve in August: a currentThu, 13 Oct 2011 05:27:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-12.htmlReview Hungarian inflation in September came out somewhat lower than our expectation (expected: 3.9% y/y vs actual: 3.6% y/y). Inflation might still drop to around the MNB's 3% inflation target in 12-18 months, but for now the MNB has no room to manoeuvre due to the recent increase in the Hungarian risk premium. We do not expect the inflation numbers to have any significant market impact going forward, as it does not fundamentally change the outlook for Hungarian monetary policy. Instead,Wed, 12 Oct 2011 05:27:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-11.htmlReview The final count after the Polish parliamentary elections on Sunday has confirmed that the governing coalition of Civic Platform (PO) and the Peasant Party (PSL) combined has won a majority in the Polish parliament and indications from both parties are that the coalition will continue. We expect the government to put forward reforms relatively soon to reduce the budget deficit. In this regard, it should be noted that Prime Minister Donald Franciszek Tusk will have a stronger positionTue, 11 Oct 2011 05:56:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-10.htmlReview Czech industrial output was released on Friday, showing 5.9% annual growth in August. This was higher than the July number of 4.4% y/y, although it was slightly short of the consensus expectations of 7.5% y/y. Russian consumer confidence expectedly improved in Q3 to -7 from -9 in Q2 11. Russian consumers are well off, as inflation is easing, wage growth is picking up, unemployment is low and loan availability is good for households. Consumer confidence peaked in Q3 08 and bottomedMon, 10 Oct 2011 06:07:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-07.htmlReview Czech retail sales in August surprised on the upside, showing yearly growth of 2.3% (non-seasonally or working days adjusted), up from -1.7% y/y in July and also above consensus (1.5% y/y). The high number was primarily due to motor vehicle sales and a longer and higher number of working days. In contrast, the preliminary release of Hungarian industrial production data for August continued to show the lacklustre state of Hungarian growth, with the industrial output level contractingFri, 07 Oct 2011 05:47:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-06.htmlReview The Polish central bank unsurprisingly kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.50% at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting. However, the comments following the meeting were slightly more hawkish than we had expected. NBP governor Marek Belka even hinted that a rate hike is more likely going forward than a rate cut. We fundamentally think that Mr Belka may be overplaying his hand here and think that his comments are not necessarily based on the NBP’s expectations for Polish growth andThu, 06 Oct 2011 05:56:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-05.htmlReview On Tuesday, Romanian August retail sales showed a yearly contraction of 5.9%, following a positive reading of 0.1% y/y in July. In monthly terms, sales contracted 3%, down significantly from 2.2% m/m growth in July. Latvian industrial output (IP) in August decelerated to 6.4% y/y from 9.2% y/y in July, disappointing our expectations of a marginal increase to 10.3% y/y. On a monthly basis, the manufacturing component made a negative contribution to overall IP, which was partially negatedWed, 05 Oct 2011 05:58:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-04.htmlReview Russian bank lending growth continued to accelerate in August despite the global turmoil. Nominal lending to firms and households is up 20% and 29% y/y respectively, according to the central bank figures. However, tightening liquidity could constrain lending in the coming months. September PMI readings surprised broadly on the positive side for EMEA countries on Monday morning. While Czech and Polish numbers were slightly softer in September, in comparison – with August PMI readingsTue, 04 Oct 2011 06:08:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-03.htmlReview On Friday the Minutes from the Czech central bank’s (CNB) September 22 board meeting were published. Overall, they were moderately dovish and downside risks to Czech growth were highlighted. Overall, we believe that monetary easing is warranted in the Czech Republic, but it is also clear that even though the CNB board is moving in that direction that monetary easing is certainly not imminent – among other things, because some CNB board members worry that the historical low key policyMon, 03 Oct 2011 06:42:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-10-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-30.htmlReview The Romanian central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.25%. This was a broadly expected outcome. Romania has the European Union’s highest policy interest rate and the Romanian central bank has maintained its target rate unchanged since the 2008-09 cutting cycle came to an end in May 2010. Reserve requirements on FX deposits, currently at 20% and domestic leu-denominated deposits, at 15%, were also left unchanged. Preview Both Estonia and Latvia are due to release their AugustFri, 30 Sep 2011 05:34:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-29.htmlReview Hungarian unemployment for August was released yesterday at 10.8%, as we and the rest of the market expected. Preview The Romanian central bank is due to announce its policy rates today. As has been the case in other Central and Eastern European countries this month, we expect the Romanian central bank to hold its rates unchanged, at 6.25%. This is also the current consensus view. Ukraine’s Q2 GDP figures are expected today or tomorrow. The preliminary figures published earlier point toThu, 29 Sep 2011 05:48:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-28.htmlReview Lithuanian retail trade data for August offered a positive surprise, with growth unexpectedly accelerating to 20.2% y/y, up from 16.9% y/y in July. Retail trade came in five notches above our expectation and consensus (15.1%). The main factor leading to acceleration in trade growth was a strong recovery in non-food product turnover. Despite quite high volatility in monthly data, these numbers indicate a continuation of relatively strong domestic consumption recovery in Lithuania. AsWed, 28 Sep 2011 06:02:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-27.htmlReview Turkish capacity utilisation for September climbed to 76.2%, up from 76.1% in August and beating the consensus estimate of 75.8%. However, continued strong readings for the Turkish economic performance and initial signs of slowing credit expansion and correcting external imbalances do not seem to have slowed down the broad-based risk aversion that also saw USD/TRY climbing to a new record high above 1.85. The announcement that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin intends to run for theTue, 27 Sep 2011 05:50:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-26.htmlReview Retail sales in Poland grew by 11.3% in August from the corresponding month last year. This beat the consensus view of 9.1% y/y by a clear margin and also accelerated from 8.2% y/y. On a monthly basis, growth was 1.1% – also above the consensus view of minus 0.5% m/m and 0.7% m/m in July. The unemployment rate, for its part, softened slightly to 11.6% in August, from 11.7% in July, in line with our expectations.  Preview This week is expected to be quiet in terms of new data inMon, 26 Sep 2011 05:57:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-23.htmlReview As widely expected, the Czech central bank (CNB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% by a unanimous 7-0 vote at Thursday’s rate-setting meeting. In a statement that followed, CNB governor, Miroslav Singer, rang a rather dovish tone as he commented that the next rate move would not necessarily need to be up – something that not so many months ago was all but a general foregone conclusion – effectively opening the door for rate cuts. His comments also stressed that the risks to theFri, 23 Sep 2011 06:04:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-22.htmlReview South African August CPI numbers showed the consumer prices having risen 5.3% from the same time a year ago, or at the same annual rate as in July. This was in line with our expectation, and slightly below the consensus estimate of 5.5% y/y. Retail sales for July were also released yesterday from South Africa, displaying 2.8% growth from July last year. This number beat the consensus expectation of 2% y/y growth and showed modest acceleration from revised growth rate of 2.4% y/y inThu, 22 Sep 2011 05:37:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-21.htmlReview The Hungarian central bank (MNB) kept its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 6% as was widely anticipated by the markets. In the statement that followed the rate decision, the MNB governor, Andras Simor, stated that while the overwhelming majority had voted for unchanged rates, a hike to 6.25% was also considered. He further noted that the government’s early mortgage repayment scheme, which was passed late on Monday, represented a significant source of risk and that it would allowWed, 21 Sep 2011 05:43:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-20.htmlReview Over the weekend, elections were held in Latvia. No party won a majority in the 100-seat legislature and the preliminary results indicate that Harmony Centre, representing the Russian-speaking population, is the winner with 31 seats in the new parliament. (Flash Comment: Latvian election – no majority win, 19 September). Industrial output in Poland showed 8.1% y/y growth in August, well above the consensus estimate of 2.7% y/y and our estimate of 3.0% y/y. While this strong number,Tue, 20 Sep 2011 05:45:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-19.htmlReview On Friday, Polish August labour data showed wages to have grown 5.4% on a yearly basis, up from 5.2% in July and above the consensus estimate of 4.9% y/y. Employment grew at 3.1% y/y, down from 3.3% y/y in July and slightly below our estimate of 3.2%. On a m/m basis both employment and wage growth numbers showed small negative numbers, -0.1% and -0.6%, respectively. With slowing growth and softer inflation growth, the labour market in Poland is also showing signs of lacklustre activityMon, 19 Sep 2011 06:08:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-16.htmlReview Turkish unemployment fell to 9.2% in June, from 9.4% previously. The result beat consensus, which expected unemployment to have remained unchanged. The falling unemployment level follows better than expected Q2 growth numbers published earlier this week. Preview Today, plenty of important data will be published from Russia. We continue to keep track of investment activity and construction sector growth, as we have been anticipating investments to become the main driver of Russian growthFri, 16 Sep 2011 05:43:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-15.htmlReview The Russian central bank kept its primary policy refinancing rate unchanged at 8.25%, in line with our and broader expectations. It did, however, lower the overnight auction-based repo rate by 25bp to 5.25%, while raising the overnight deposit rate by 25bp to 3.75%, both of which came as a surprise to the markets. The apparent motivation behind the narrowing of the spread of the overnight repo and deposit rates is to reduce volatility in the money markets and to keep them functioning inThu, 15 Sep 2011 05:33:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-14.htmlReview Hungarian August inflation, at 3.6% y/y (vs 3.4% y/y expected and 3.1% prior) and minus 0.1% m/m, again showed the rather muted nature of inflationary pressures in Hungary. While core inflation continues to decelerate, with August numbers falling from 3.2% y/y in July to 3.1% y/y in August, the moderate rise in annual headline figures is primarily attributable to a base effect coming in from numbers a year ago. Furthermore, in the month of August, both food and clothing prices continuedWed, 14 Sep 2011 05:45:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-13.htmlReview At 8.8% y/y, the Turkish economy continued to expand robustly in the second quarter of this year, beating the consensus estimate of 6.3% y/y by a clear mark and somewhat above our estimate of 7.4% y/y. On a quarterly basis, growth came in at 1.3%, while the consensus expectation had pointed to nil growth. Both quarterly and yearly Q1 figures were also revised higher, to 1.7% and 11.7% respectively, from 1.4% and 11% respectively. All three Baltic countries yesterday released theirTue, 13 Sep 2011 05:50:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-12.htmlReview Turkish industrial production (NSA Y/Y) for July surprised the markets with a robust reading of 6.9%, well above the market consensus of 4% y/y. The Czech August CPI numbers came out at 1.7% y/y, the same as the July numbers, once again highlighting the subdued inflationary pressures in the Czech Republic. Preview Turkish Q2 GDP numbers are due out this morning. Following record high growth in Q1 that saw the Turkish economy expand by 11% y/y, the expectations are for growth to haveMon, 12 Sep 2011 05:38:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-09.htmlReview Russian Q2 GDP was 3.4%, unchanged from the preliminary figure released in August. We expect acceleration in growth in H2 as investment activity is rising. South African macro numbers disappointed yet again, with Manufacturing Production for July showing a 6% y/y contraction against a market consensus of only a ½% contraction, as strikes and slowing growth have taken their toll on industrial activity levels. Yesterday, the Serbian central bank (NBS) cut its key policy rate by 50 basisFri, 09 Sep 2011 06:46:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-08.htmlReview Estonian inflation figures were released this morning. CPI inflation accelerated further in August to 5.5% y/y, from 5.2% y/y in July. The outcome was significantly higher than both our estimate (5.0% y/y) and the consensus expectation (5.1% y/y). The Polish central bank (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, as was widely expected. While we also expected the policy rate to remain unchanged, we still think that the NBP will eventually be compelled to trim rates and expect theThu, 08 Sep 2011 05:49:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-07.htmlReview Yesterday, Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan said that Turkey has suspended all trade, military and industrial ties with Israel. Over the past year the normally good relationship between the two countries has deteriorated dramatically. The further escalation of the diplomatic conflict between the two countries is bad news for the Turkish as well as the Israeli markets. As the Polish general elections on 9 October draw closer, so does the political “noise” from the election campaign. ZytaWed, 07 Sep 2011 05:50:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-06.htmlReview Turkish inflation in August came in at 6.65% y/y – this is a disappointment as it is above consensus expectations and our own. It seems like the sharp sell-off in the lira this year is beginning to feed through to headline inflation. As indicated earlier by the weekly figures, Russian consumer price inflation in August was -0.2% m/m and 8.2% y/y. Disinflation is likely to continue during the coming months, which in our view will support wage growth and consumption. However, given theTue, 06 Sep 2011 05:47:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-05.htmlReview Czech retail sales dropped 1.7% y/y in July – well below the consensus expectation of +0.4% y/y. The very weak retail sales numbers further confirm that domestic demand in the Czech economy is very fragile and there are no signs of recovery. Preview Latvian industrial production is due to be released today. We expect a deceleration in growth in July to 13.6% y/y from 15.2% y/y, but this should be mainly due to base effects. However, in the coming months, industry growth may slow notMon, 05 Sep 2011 05:31:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-02.htmlReview Yesterday PMI numbers for August for a number of EMEA countries were released, showing minor declines compared to July. The numbers in general do not show any major decline in PMIs across the region and the PMI levels are far from catastrophic. So far it is hard to see any major negative impact of the global slowdown on the EMEA PMI numbers. Hence, PMI in August remained relatively high and above the 50-level in both Poland and Turkey, while Russian PMI inched up a bit and seems to beFri, 02 Sep 2011 05:43:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-01.htmlReview The robust growth of Estonian industrial production continued in July as seasonally adjusted industrial production increased by 4.7% m/m. Annual growth decelerated only marginally to 23% y/y from 23.8% y/y in June. We expect Estonian industrial production, which has mainly been determined by strong growth in the exportoriented electronics industry, to continue to be the highest in the euro area. Deceleration in growth from the beginning of the year was determined by the base effect.Thu, 01 Sep 2011 05:35:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-09-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-31.htmlReview Polish GDP grew by 4.3% y/y in Q2 – above the consensus expectation of 4.2% y/y and our forecast of 4.1% y/y, but slightly down from 4.4% y/y in Q1. Overall, the numbers are encouraging as they confirm that the Polish economy is still doing relatively well despite the global slowdown. That said we expect Polish growth to moderate further in the coming quarters, but for now there is certainly no reason to panic. Overall, Polish growth is fairly broad based, but investment growthWed, 31 Aug 2011 05:51:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-30.htmlReview Strong credit growth continued in Russia in July. Household and corporate loans increased by 27% y/y and 18% y/y, respectively. We believe that credit growth is the most important growth driver in Russia this year. However, global uncertainty that regained strength in August clearly poses a risk to robust growth in bank lending. Still, as the Russian banking sector is less dependent on foreign loans than in 2008, we do not expect a dramatic drop in lending activity. Lithuanian final GDPTue, 30 Aug 2011 05:23:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-29.htmlPreview Relatively little on the EMEA calendar today. Focus on Lithuanian GDP numbers for Q2. We expect GDP grown at 6.1% y/y in Q2 - as in Q1. On Friday the Swedish government revised its growth forecast significantly down. If the Swedish government’s bearish view on the outlook for the economy turns out to be right, it is likely to have a negative impact on the already fragile Baltic recovery. Bank holiday in the UK means that turnover in the EMEA markets will probably be light today.Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:14:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-26.htmlReview South African producer prices (PPI) surprised somewhat on the upside for July. PPI rose 8.9% y/y in July – up from 7.4% y/y in June. The upside surprise in PPI is unwelcomed news for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) as it will make it more difficult for the SARB to move in a more dovish direction. Preview Market participants will be watching the Turkish trade balance data for July due out today. We do not expect to see any improvement on the trade balance in the near term andFri, 26 Aug 2011 06:24:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-25.htmlReview Polish retail sales in July disappointed slightly on the downside, growing by 8.2% y/y vs the consensus expectation of 10.5% y/y. The result is far from catastrophic, but it is nonetheless clear that the Polish economy is beginning to show signs of slowing and therefore we reiterate our expectation of an interest rate cut from the Polish central bank within the next three months. The Hungarian consumer is struggling considerably more than the Polish consumer. Hungarian retail sales inThu, 25 Aug 2011 05:44:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-24.htmlReview Both the Turkish and Hungarian central banks yesterday left their key policy rates unchanged at their respective ordinary monetary policy meetings. There was not much news in terms of change of direction in monetary policy. The Turkish central bank maintained its overall dovish rhetoric, while the Hungarian central bank acknowledged the downside risks to growth and inflation but also maintained a cautious view in light of the financial risks the Hungarian economy faces. Preview It is aWed, 24 Aug 2011 05:39:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-23.htmlReview Lithuanian industrial production expanded 6.8% y/y in July – somewhat down from 10.4% y/y in June and well below our expectation of 11.2% y/y. We stress that the industrial production numbers are relatively volatile from month to month, nonetheless these numbers are somewhat disappointing. It seems like the slowdown in the global economy is beginning to weigh on Lithuanian exports and therefore on the Lithuanian manufacturing sector. Preview Today the Hungarian central bank (MNB) willTue, 23 Aug 2011 05:47:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-22.htmlReview Hungarian wage growth eased slightly in June to 4.7% y/y from 6.7% y/y in May. At the same time, private sector employment growth slowed to 1.0% y/y, down from 1.5% y/y in May. Overall, the labour market situation remains challenging and we are not expecting any near-term improvement. Rather, the employment situation could become even more challenging as the impact from the global crisis is likely to become even more visible. As we expected, the Lithuanian labour market improved in Q2Mon, 22 Aug 2011 05:49:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2011-08-22.html