http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-20.htmlReview Polish industrial production in October came out better than expected when it fell by just 1.2% y/y in October, which was much less than we and the consensus expected. October’s industrial production numbers consequently confirmed continued recovery in the Polish manufacturing sector. The Czech central bank board member, the Vice Governor Miroslav Singer, who voted for further reduction in interest rates at the last two monetary policy setting meetings, said on Thursday thatFri, 20 Nov 2009 06:14:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-19.htmlReview Polish wages grew by only 2.0% y/y, much less than expected. Such weak wage growth further limits private consumption, thereby negatively affecting growth. As private consumption continues to weaken, we see inflation falling below 2% in H1 2010. South African retail sales in September fell slightly more than expected, by 5.1% y/y, but the pace of decline was smaller than the revised 6.5% y/y fall in August. The Czech central bank board member, Vice Governor Mojmir Hampl, who voted forThu, 19 Nov 2009 06:11:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-18.htmlReview South African central bank (SARB) decided to keep its key policy rate on hold at 7.00% as broadly expected. Turkish Labour Ministry said on Tuesday that Turkish unemployment would reach 14.8% at the end of 2009 , which was in line with the country’s medium-term economic program. Preview Fairly eventful day in terms of economic data in the EMEA region. Focus will be on the Polish labour market data today . Labour market conditions in Poland remain weak with declining employment and weakWed, 18 Nov 2009 06:13:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-17.htmlReview  On Monday ECB Executive Board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell said that the planned timing for euro adoption should be credible and that “overly ambitious timetables” for euro adoption could be “costly”. Austrian central bank governor Nowotny also made cautious remarks about euro enlargement, saying that it should be decided on a case-by-case basis.  On a similar note, European Commissioner Almunia said that the euro entry criteria should not be loosened. In our view, neitherTue, 17 Nov 2009 06:14:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-16.htmlReview On Friday we received Q3 GDP numbers from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Overall the numbers confirm that a recovery is underway in the CEE economies, but it is quite weak and likely to be fragile as well. Polish inflation dropped to 3.1% in October from 3.4% y/y in September, in line with our expectation, but slightly below the consensus expectation of 3.2% y/y. We expect average Polish inflation of 3.4% y/y for 2009 and 1.9% in 2010. On Friday we published NewMon, 16 Nov 2009 06:20:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-13.htmlReview The release of the Russian Federal budget data for the first 10 months of 2009 showed that the public deficit was much smaller than expected mainly driven by a spending restraint in recent months ahead of the year-end public sector wage rise. Thus public spending is set to increase sharply in the last two months of the year due to scheduled increases in public sector wages and pensions. Estonian Statistics yesterday published the flash estimate for Q3 GDP growth: GDP declined 15.3% y/yFri, 13 Nov 2009 06:36:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-12.htmlReview Hungarian inflation in October dropped to 4.7% y/y, well below the consensus expectation of 5.0% y/y. We had forecast 4.8% y/y. Despite below-forecast inflation, the room for further monetary easing is fairly limited, in our view – we see one 25bp rate cut. Romanian inflation in October also dropped considerably, to 4.3% y/y, down from 4.9% y/y in September. Despite the downtrend, we do not expect any further monetary easing in the near future. The Romanian central bank will likely keepThu, 12 Nov 2009 06:16:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-11.htmlReview South African manufacturing production in September was slightly better than expected, contracting 11.4% y/y. Consensus expectation was -13.0%. August’s output was revised down to -15.2% y/y (from -15.0% y/y). We expect manufacturing production to continue to improve, indicated, for example, by the ongoing improvement in PMI. Quite good current account and trade balance numbers for Poland in September: C/A deficit of EUR 57m and a trade deficit of only EUR 4m. The improvement isWed, 11 Nov 2009 06:15:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-10.v02.htmlFollowing the recent surge in risk aversion, the EMEA currencies sold off. However, the picture is now turning back towards more risk-taking again after a stream of better-thanexpected US macro data and renewed commitment on the part of global policymakers to continue to pump liquidity into global financial markets. This morning our EMEA FX Scorecard’s overall total score has turned positive for the first time in exactly two weeks. We therefore call an end to the correction in the EMEA FXTue, 10 Nov 2009 10:37:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-10.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-10.htmlReview  Czech inflation dipped below zero in October, more precisely it fell by an annual 0.2%, representing the first deflation since 2003. Unemployment figures for October were also published, falling to 8.5% from September’s 8.6%. Despite this moderate decline, we expect unemployment to continue to rise, reaching over 9% by the end of this year. Yesterday, the flash estimate of Latvian Q3 GDP was published. The Latvian economy contracted by 18.4% y/y in Q3. Read our flashTue, 10 Nov 2009 06:12:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-09.htmlReview On Friday we published our New Europe Weekly. Estonian October inflation declined to -2.2% y/y, close to expectations. We had expected deflation of 2.0% y/y. The 12-month average inflation drops to 1.5% y/y. Thus the Maastricht inflation criterion is almost fulfilled. We expect the deflationary trend in Estonia to continue further and look for average CPI of around -0.1% for 2009 and -0.7% for 2010. The Lithuanian central bank (LB) announced an update of its macro forecasts. LB is inMon, 09 Nov 2009 06:21:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-06.htmlReview The Czech central bank (CNB) has decided to keep interest rates on hold keeping the key policy rate at 1.25% . This was in line with the consensus expectation, but contrary to our expectation of a 25 basis point cut. Even though the CNB kept rates unchanged yesterday it should be noted that three board members voted for a rate cut, while four voted for keeping rates unchanged. Furthermore, it should be noted that “non-rate easing tools” was debated – indicating that some CNB boardFri, 06 Nov 2009 06:15:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-05.htmlReview  Yesterday, the Hungarian central bank published Minutes from its last rate sitting meeting. The Minutes did not bring anything new and the majority of the Monetary Council members was in favour of monetary easing in “small steps”. The MNB also said that financial markets remain fragile. We note that the Minutes are from the last rate setting meeting before the latest sell-off in the forint. Concluding, the recent sell-off in the forint has probably made it clear to most of theThu, 05 Nov 2009 06:32:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-04.htmlReview Yesterday, the Romanian central bank (NBR) decided to keep its key policy rate on hold at 8.00%. This was no major surprise and in our view it was the only option that the NBR had given the significant political uncertainties there and the renewed selling pressure on the leu. If rates had been cut, the leu would have come under further pressure. That said, we do not think the decision will be enough to ease the pressure on the leu given the political uncertainties and the negativeWed, 04 Nov 2009 06:21:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-03.htmlReview Yesterday, PMIs for October were published across the EMEA region. They showed a mixed result. Read our flash comment on October’s PMI. Yesterday, the Latvian government submitted the 2010 budget to parliament. The first vote on the 2010 budget will be on Thursday 5 November and the second is likely in the first half of December. It is still unclear whether this budget fulfils the IMF and EU’s demands. Preview Russian and Turkish inflation in the spotlight today. Lacklustre economicTue, 03 Nov 2009 06:16:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-02.htmlReview Read our New Europe Weekly . On Friday, Estonian Statistics published industrial production (IP) and retail trade data for September. We saw a continuation of the “stable” drop in IP of 30% y/y in September. Over Q3, IP has fallen 29.0% y/y, an improvement from -32.5% y/y in Q2 09. Retail trade declined 17% y/y in September, down from -16% y/y in August. Over Q3 the slump in retail trade accelerated. In sum, there was no improvement in retail trade and industrial production over Q3.Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:24:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-30.htmlReview  Hungarian unemployment reached a 13-year high in the July-September period as three-month rolling unemployment increased to 10.3%. We expect the labour market to continue deteriorating and expect year-end unemployment to rise to over 11%.  Also, South African unemployment was published yesterday. In Q3 the official jobless rate rose to 24.5% in Q3, up from 23.6% in Q2. While speaking in the South African parliament, president Jacob Zuma said that despite increased borrowingFri, 30 Oct 2009 12:29:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-29.htmlReview  As expected, the Polish central bank (NBP) yesterday kept its key policy unchanged at 3.5%. However, the NBP changed its (informal) bias from an easing bias to a neutral bias. However, we do not believe it changes anything for the outlook of monetary policy, as the NBP is likely to remain on hold for some time to come.  South African inflation for September decelerated more than expected and is at this moment very close to upper end if the central bank’s inflation targetThu, 29 Oct 2009 06:14:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-28.htmlReview Yesterday, Fitch rating agency placed Turkey on rating watch positive. The likelihood that Turkey will be upgraded when Fitch completes Turkey’s review is strong. This would obviously be positive for Turkish markets. Yesterday, the South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan presented the 2009 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. The Finance Ministry expects this year’s budget deficit to reach a record 7.6% of GDP. Overall the statement is more or less in line with expectations,Wed, 28 Oct 2009 06:24:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-27.v02.htmlIt is time for a correction in the EMEA FX markets – at least if one believes the signals from our EMEA FX Scorecard. Over the last 24 hours our Scorecard has turned negative for most of the EMEA currencies and the total score is now negative for the first time since March-April. This is an indication that we are in for a correction in the EMEA FX markets and we therefore recommend taking off some risk from the books and reducing exposure to the EMEA FX markets. Most at risk according to theTue, 27 Oct 2009 11:08:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-27.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-27.htmlReview Last week the IMF said that it would send a mission to Romania to start assessment on a second review of Romania’s loan programme, but the IMF chief for Romania, Jeffrey Franks, added that a follow-up mission may be needed after the new government is appointed. Hence, we do not expect that Romania will get another tranche from the IMF until it has a new effective government. That would clearly be negative for Romania. On the other hand, we acknowledge that Romania is not in as imminentTue, 27 Oct 2009 06:20:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-26.htmlReview Polish unemployment in September increased moderately to 10.9%, up from August’s 10.8%. Consensus expected 11.0%. Looking ahead we expect unemployment to gradually rise to close to 12% by the end of 2009. Also published on Friday were Polish retail sales for September, which rose 2.5% y/y, below the consensus expectation of 3.9% y/y. Decelerating retail sales indicate that consumer spending is running out of steam as the deteriorating labour market limits household spending. On FridayMon, 26 Oct 2009 06:13:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-23.htmlReview Yesterday night we got some welcome news when Latvian Prime Minister Dombrovskis, after a meeting with banks, said that the Latvian government will not change mortgage rules retrospectively and hence signalled a retreat from his former position that a possible to change of legislation would limit mortgage lenders’ liability to the value of the collateral also on existing loans. This is obviously very good news, but the question is whether Dombrovskis will be able to handle this issueFri, 23 Oct 2009 05:31:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-22.htmlReview It was a rather calm day yesterday with only core inflation for September in Poland being released. Core inflation in September inched slightly up to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y in August. There was no market reaction on the back of the numbers and it does not change our outlook on Polish inflation. We see average inflation at 3.5% y/y this year and 2.6% y/y in 2010E. Preview The MPC meeting in South Africa is the key event today. Our call for unchanged interest rates is also the consensus,Thu, 22 Oct 2009 05:24:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-21.htmlReview Wage growth continues to slow in Hungary. Gross average wages in August rose only 0.6% y/y in August compared to 1.4% y/y in July, suggesting that the economic recession in Hungary is now clearly affecting the labour market with wage growth moderating quite strongly. Yesterday, the Czech central banker Miroslav Singer said that a double-dip recession is possible in the Czech economy despite some optimistic signals from key economies in Western Europe. Mr Singer continues to advocate hisWed, 21 Oct 2009 05:36:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-20.htmlReview As broadly expected, the Hungarian central bank cut its key policy rate by 50bp to 7.00%. But as the market is priced relatively aggressively for rate cuts, this may disappoint some participants.  See our flash comment on the Hungarian rate decision. Polish industrial production fell only by 1.3% y/y in September – the outcome was better than the consensus expectation of -2.6% y/y. Pretty good numbers and it is clear that the worst is probably over for Polish industry, and in theTue, 20 Oct 2009 05:33:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-19.htmlReview On Friday we received some negative news from Turkey. Turkish markets came somewhat under pressure after the Constitutional Court ruled in favour of a case filed by the opposition CHP, which said that foreign investors and locals should be treated equally in terms of the application of the withholding tax on bonds and shares. Since locals pay 10% withholding tax and international investors pay 0%, the speculation is that foreigners will have to pay 10% if the proposal is approved. WeMon, 19 Oct 2009 05:22:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-16.htmlReview We updated our macro forecast on the Czech Republic. We now expect Czech GDP to contract 4.4% y/y this year. Read our Macro Monitor: Czech Republic .  Turkish unemployment fell to 12.8% in the June-August period, down from 13.0% in the period May-July.  Czech producer price deflation deepened further in September after the Czech PPI declined by 5.4% y/y driven by a strong CZK and depressed demand.  On a positive note, the IMF mission chief for Romania, Jeffrey Franks,Fri, 16 Oct 2009 05:29:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-15.htmlReview Polish inflation in September inched down to 3.4% y/y, which was slightly more than expected. Read our Flash Comment . Czech retail sales in August dropped more than expected by 3.5% y/y, albeit less than July’s 3.9% y/y fall. Weak retail sales figures did not come as a big surprise to us as rising unemployment and stagnating wages put a lid on consumer spending. South African retail sales fell sharply by 7.0% y/y in August, and at the same time retail sales for July were revised downThu, 15 Oct 2009 05:22:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-14.htmlReview  Hungarian inflation for September surprised on the downside at 4.9% y/y . This was a low reading, as consensus, including us, expected a moderate rise in headline inflation in September; this is clearly an argument for further monetary easing.  Yesterday, EU Commissioner Almunia visited Riga . After a meeting with the Latvian Prime Minister Dombrovskis, Almunia once again stated that the Latvian government would cut the budget deficit by 500mn lats as agreed with the EU andWed, 14 Oct 2009 09:26:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-13.htmlReview Yesterday night, it was announced that the leader of the Latvian People’s Party Mareks Seglins will resign . The People’s Party is the largest party in the Latvian coalition government. Former Prime Miniser Andris Skele who effectively is the “party owner” of the People’s Party will take over as new official leader of the Party. Mr. Skele has said he would be ready to become Prime Minister again. It should be noted that Mr. Skele has previously voiced support for a Latvian devaluation.Tue, 13 Oct 2009 05:38:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-12.htmlReview Czech inflation continued to decelerate further in September. With inflation at 0.0% y/y in September, the doors for a looser monetary policy are open. Read our Flash Comment . On Friday, the Swedish central bank’s Governor Ingves stated that Latvia may be “left in the cold” if it doesn’t comply with IMF demands. The Swedish Minister responsible for financial markets, Odell, was very critical of the Latvian non-recourse proposal and stated that it would be counterproductive for LatviaMon, 12 Oct 2009 08:17:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-09.htmlReview Yesterday, September inflation figures were published in Latvia and Lithuania. Read our Flash Comment . Turkish industrial production fell 6.3% y/y in August, a sharper fall than consensus had expected. Nevertheless, the outcome represents the smallest fall this year. South African manufacturing production fell 15.0% y/y in August , which was significantly worse than the consensus expectation of -11.2% y/y. Clearly, South Africa’s manufacturing sector continues to be under strain asFri, 09 Oct 2009 05:34:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-08.htmlReview Inflation in Estonia remains very subdued. Read our Flash Comment . Romanian industrial production contracted 5.9% y/y in August compared to July’s 6.9% y/y fall. Retail sales for August remained deep in the red contracting 12.1% y/y, albeit slower compared to -13.8% y/y in July. Political jitters have begun to take centre stage also in Poland after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reshuffled his government over the gambling bill scandal. On Wednesday Tusk sacked the head of theThu, 08 Oct 2009 05:33:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-07.htmlReview Newsflow has turned increasingly worrying over the last couple of days. Despite strong international pressure, the Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis repeated yesterday that it is possible to achieve next year’s agreed budget deficit target of 8.5% of GDP by cutting the deficit by only LVL325m. This is LVL175m less than agreed with international lenders. Furthermore, Dombrovskis came up with an initiative to implement new legal regulations which would limit the obligations ofWed, 07 Oct 2009 05:39:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-06.htmlReview Baltic risks have increased over the last week. There seems to be disagreements between the Latvian government and the EU and Sweden about the magnitude and implementation of the needed budget cuts. These risks are unlikely to go away in the near term. See our update here The Czech central banker M. Singer who voted for another 25bp at September’s monetary setting meeting, said in his presentation that “further rate cuts cannot be rule out if the negative external trends intensify andTue, 06 Oct 2009 05:42:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-05.htmlReview Latvian risks are likely to move back to the top of the agenda for the CEE markets this week after the Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg on Friday said that “The patience of the international community [with the Latvian government] is very limited”. Anders Borg’s warning to the Latvian government echos comments made by European Commission officials last week. Furthermore, during the weekend the Swedish media reported that Anders Borg apparently in recent weeks have warned SwedishMon, 05 Oct 2009 05:36:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-02.htmlReview Yesterday, PMIs for September were published across the EMEA region. In general they surprised positively increasing more than we had expected. Most notable was the Russian PMI, which broke the critical 50 level for the first time in 14 months, coming out at 52. Big surprise was the South African PMI, which advanced sharply from August’s 39.3 to 48.0 in September. Such a big jump in one month looks a bit odd, but on the other hand the South African PMI has lagged significantly behindFri, 02 Oct 2009 05:23:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-01.htmlReview The Polish central bank kept its key policy rate on hold as expected, hence market reaction was limited. Despite some strengthening in external demand and manufacturing confidence Estonian August industrial production declined more than expected, by 27.9% y/y from a 27.8% in July. It looks like a recovering process in external demand is too slow to provide substantial support to IP growth. There is still large uncertainty regarding more positive GDP growth in the second half of 2009. WeThu, 01 Oct 2009 05:34:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-10-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-09-30.htmlReview Yesterday Erik Berglof, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's chief economist, said at the Reuters Central European Investment Summit: “We know that non-performing loans are increasing. They haven't been increasing at the pace we were worried about (at the start) but that is because in some countries the way official statistics report them is not satisfactory”. We think that Mr. Berglof’s comments are rather negative and that the continued negative news flow concerningWed, 30 Sep 2009 05:16:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/emea-daily/2009-09-30.html