Review

  • On Friday we received Q3 GDP numbers from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Overall the numbers confirm that a recovery is underway in the CEE economies, but it is quite weak and likely to be fragile as well.

  • Polish inflation dropped to 3.1% in October from 3.4% y/y in September, in line with our expectation, but slightly below the consensus expectation of 3.2% y/y. We expect average Polish inflation of 3.4% y/y for 2009 and 1.9% in 2010.

  • On Friday we published New Europe Weekly and Emerging Markets Briefer.


Preview

  • Not much on the schedule today in the EMEA region other than Czech PPI numbers and Turkish unemployment.


Trading update

  • The EMEA markets continue to be relatively calm and seem to have adopted a bit of a wait-and-see stance. On Friday most EMEA currencies strengthened a little. Our EMEA FX Scorecard is still sending positive signals on all the EMEA currencies. The highest scoring currency is still the Polish zloty.