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EMEA Daily
The MPC meeting in South Africa is the key event today
Thu, Oct 22 2009, 05:24 GMT
by Lars Christensen
Danske Bank A/S | View company's profile
Review
- It was a rather calm day yesterday with only core inflation for September in Poland being released. Core inflation in September inched slightly up to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y in August. There was no market reaction on the back of the numbers and it does not change our outlook on Polish inflation. We see average inflation at 3.5% y/y this year and 2.6% y/y in 2010E.
Preview
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The MPC meeting in South Africa is the key event today. Our call for unchanged interest rates is also the consensus, but uncertainty of the outcome remains fairly high. In our view, inflation that is still above inflation target range (at 3-6%) should prevent the central bank from reducing interest rates further. But we also acknowledge that the latest hard data disappointed strongly. This combined with the current excessively strong rand could add to the arguments for cutting interest rates further. Nonetheless, we believe that the SARB would rather stick to a prudent monetary policy. Thus, we expect no further cuts.
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Besides the MPC meeting in South Africa, Hungarian retail sales for August and Lithuanian industrial production for September should be worth noting.
Trading update
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Most of EMEA-FX markets lost ground during Wednesday as the US dollar rebounded somewhat.
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The South African rates could fall ahead of the MPC meeting today.
Published on Thu, Oct 22 2009, 05:28 GMT
Archive
- Turkish political tensions seem to back on the agenda in Turkey
Published On Fri, Mar 19 2010, 06:17 GMT - Yesterday, the Polish labour market data was published
Published On Wed, Mar 17 2010, 06:27 GMT - The EU meeting in Brussels today will be in the limelight
Published On Mon, Mar 15 2010, 14:14 GMT - On the data front, there is not much on the agenda today
Published On Fri, Mar 12 2010, 06:21 GMT - The Czech final GDP will not gain as much attention
Published On Thu, Mar 11 2010, 06:19 GMT
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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