FXstreet.com

EMEA Daily

4

0

The pace of the contraction in Lithuanian industrial production moderated in July

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 06:56 GMT
by Lars Christensen

Danske Bank A/S


Review

  • The pace of the contraction in Lithuanian industrial production moderated in July, dropping 15.7% y/y, versus -16.3% in June.
  • On Friday the Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius said in the interview for CNBC that the worst of the recession is behind them and the biggest problem for Lithuania is public finances, though Lithuania is able to finance its deficit through capital markets and therefore does not envisage asking the IMF or EU for help. When asked about a possible devaluation, PM Kubilius said a devaluation is not on the agenda and he furthermore expects Lithuania to meet the Maastricht criteria for euro entry by summer 2012.

Preview

  • The Hungarian rate decision is the key event today. We expect a 50bp cut, which should bring the Hungarian base rate down to 8.00%. This is also the consensus expectation.

Trading update

  • Even though the CEE currencies entered Friday weaker, a strong reading for the Euroland PMI published Friday morning renewed risk appetite and the CEE currencies gained ground with the Polish zloty (PLN) gaining the most and the CZK moving to its 2009 highs.
  • Last week the swap rates dropped in most EMEA countries. Especially in Hungary and Turkey a strong rally has occurred on the back of increased risk appetite and increased expectations about further cuts from these two countries’ central banks. Hence Hungarian swap rates are down 30bps across the curve ahead of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting. Although we go with the consensus for 50bp, we note that MNB surprised when they cut by a whooping 100bp at the last meeting. We are not looking for a repeat of this today, as the Hungarian currency has been less stable recently. However there is some risk of a possible 100bp cut.

Published on  Mon, Aug 24 2009, 06:59 GMT


Archive

Danske Bank  | Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Related reports

Forex Technical Report - Stock Markets Flat to Higher Ahead of U.S. GDP Report by ForexHound.com
Tue, Nov 24 2009, 14:51 GMT

Forex Technical Report - Forex Traders Await U.S. GDP Report by ForexHound.com
Tue, Nov 24 2009, 14:50 GMT

Daily Market Report - Indications that the Euro's rally could be running out of some steam by Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Tue, Nov 24 2009, 14:47 GMT

Interest Rate Monitor - Bonds fail to make headway on latest banking crisis by Interactive Brokers LLC
Tue, Nov 24 2009, 14:36 GMT

Top Fundamental Stories - World's largest economy growth revised to the downside but remains artificial… by ecPulse.com
Tue, Nov 24 2009, 13:17 GMT

indicator, industrialproduction, lithuania

View All

Related content


Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!


FOREX.com
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
FX Solutions LLC
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
MIG INVESTMENTS SA
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account		Interbank FX, LLC
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account		GFT
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account

GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES!   Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program

Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.