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EMEA Daily
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Inflation in Turkey is due for release today
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 06:49 GMT
by Lars Christensen
Review
- South African NAAMSA new vehicle sales dropped by 23.7% y/y, but improved compared to -34.7% y/y in May, suggesting that the worst might be over and some stabilisation has been reached.
- Yesterday, the European Commission set a deadline for Latvia to bring its budget deficit below 3% of GDP by 2012. Furthermore the Commission said that the second instalment of EU aid to Latvia would be disbursed in July.
Preview
- Inflation in Turkey is due for release today. We expect inflation to rise a bit to 5.5% y/y in June from 5.2% y/y in May. This is primarily due to base effects, but we nonetheless expect inflation to hover around 5½-6% in the coming months. This is likely to make it harder for the Turkish central bank (TCMB) to continue its monetary easing cycle, so although we still expect further monetary easing from the TCMB, we expect the easing to be less aggressive than in recent months.
- Czech Minutes from the latest monetary policy setting meeting will be published today. Taking into account the comment made by the CNB Governor Tuma after the rate decision at the end of June, we expect the Minutes to be fairly balanced. The Minutes will probably indicate that the recession will be much deeper than anticipated in the Inflation report published in May. Furthermore, the Minutes are likely to indicate a rather balanced inflation outlook, stating some pro- and anti inflationary risks to the inflation forecast.
Trading update
- Yesterday, due to favourable market sentiment, Hungary’s government bond auction drew strong support. Total bids for the HUF 24bn offer topped 110bn forints.
- There is a large amount of TRY Eurobonds maturing during July, and Danske therefore launched a new 3 year bond for maturing funds to roll into. The new bond is the KFW 11.25 16 July 2012 which settles on 16 July. At TRY 400m, the bond is large for a TRY deal and could be tapped soon, potentially making it a 500m Jumbo deal. See Bloomberg DDEM6 for pricing.
Published on Fri, Jul 3 2009, 06:57 GMT
Archive
- Q3 GDP figures for South African will be the main focus today
Published On Tue, Nov 24 2009, 06:11 GMT - The rate decision in Hungary will take centre stage today
Published On Mon, Nov 23 2009, 06:26 GMT - The EMEA FX markets were on the soft side on Thursday
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 06:14 GMT - The Turkish rate decision later today is the key event of the day
Published On Thu, Nov 19 2009, 06:11 GMT - Fairly eventful day in terms of economic data in the EMEA region
Published On Wed, Nov 18 2009, 06:13 GMT
Danske Bank
| Holmens Kanal 2-12, DK-1092 Copenhagen
http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
EMEA Daily - The Turkish rate decision later today is the key event of the day by Danske Bank A/S
Thu, Nov 19 2009, 06:11 GMT
Macro Monitor - Turkey by Danske Bank A/S
Mon, Oct 19 2009, 13:47 GMT
EMEA Daily - EMEA FX-markets diverged on Thursday by Danske Bank A/S
Fri, Oct 9 2009, 05:34 GMT
EMEA Daily - The Turkish central bank lowered both key interest rates by 50bp last night by Danske Bank A/S
Fri, Sep 18 2009, 05:26 GMT
Flash Comment - Turkey: Babacan's plan - ambitious but essentially realistic by Danske Bank A/S
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 13:22 GMT
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