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Africa: the next global surprise?

Fri, Jun 20 2008, 12:47 GMT
by La Caixa Economic Research Dept.

La Caixa

Africa is believed to be the cradle of Humanity given that it is there the oldest vestiges of Man’s presence on Earth have been found going back several million years. But, while the human species arose in Africa, this is not a continent that stands out for its development and progress. Nearly half of Africa’s population lives in conditions of extreme poverty and it includes nearly three-quarters of the world’s poorest countries.

This was not always so. In the middle of the 20th century the per capita gross domestic product of Latin America and Asia was not much different from that of Africa. In fact, the Asian continent bore all the trappings of economic backwardness. Nevertheless, since then both regions have shown notable growth while Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa, has scarcely changed.We may ask why? The articles accompanying this Monthly Report show that a number of theories have been put forward in trying to answer that question although none has managed to lay out a convincing explanation. What is clear is that many factors are working against progress on the African continent. One of the most important is geography. At one time, some 12,000 years ago, the present Sahara Desert was a fertile valley with abundant rain but progressive desertification left the lands south of the Sahara far from the political and economic centres that have marked the history of the various civilizations. The tropical climate, which exists over a large part of the continent, does not usually serve as the best ally in the development of productivity or favour the cultivation of cereals, a key for ensuring a minimum level of food production. Another factor hampering African development is the low level of institutions (mechanisms for social order and cooperation). The colonial past may lie behind the failure of some states that were artificially and capriciously drawn on the map in response to interests that lay outside the reality of the territory involved.Many of the armed conflicts that have laid waste the continent in recent times may be explained in this way, as well as long years of dictatorial governments and greed coveting an abundance of natural resources.

Perhaps partly because of a bad conscience from their colonial behaviour, since the Sixties the rich countries have tried to help the progress of these developing countries through international aid and cooperation programmes. In the case of Africa, the results have been poor. In 2000, the United Nations decided to modify its aid strategy establishing eight «development objectives for the Millennium» which ranged from reducing extreme poverty by half to halting the spread of the AIDS virus and instituting universal primary school education by 2015. It was a matter of organizing efforts and resources in order to more effectively help the world’s poor which, as mentioned above, include a good number of African countries. In spite of all this, Africa today is a continent on the move. In 2007, the African economies grew by 6%, according to the International Monetary Fund, thus consolidating a path marked by several years of high economic growth, increasing exports and tangible progress. Helped by high prices for raw materials, a number of African countries are achieving notable advances and beginning to attract funds from private investors, mainly from Asia. It may be that in the not too distant future some African country will turn out to be a success story and become an emerging country rivalling economies that, like China, India and Brazil, are now driving the world economy.Why not?

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Published on  Fri, Jun 20 2008, 12:50 GMT

Archive

• Once again it's oil
  Published On Mon, Sep 22 2008, 12:26 GMT
• Sport: both competition and business
  Published On Tue, Jul 22 2008, 07:17 GMT
• Africa: the next global surprise?
  Published On Fri, Jun 20 2008, 12:47 GMT
• Ice and fire: a return of stagflation?
  Published On Fri, May 23 2008, 12:52 GMT
• Home, sweet home
  Published On Fri, Apr 18 2008, 13:07 GMT

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