- The global economy continues to gather momentum. According to the Netherlands CPB bureau of economic policy analysis, world trade volume rose 3.5% in July. In emerging Asia output has already passed its pre-credit-crisis peak. The six-month change in our global composite LEI is running at 7% annualized, suggesting a very strong possibility of above-trend global growth through early 2010.
- In the United States, the economic data published over the past month confirm the signals from leading indicators: the U.S. economy is growing again. The incipient recovery will buoy the profits of nonfinancial corporations and stabilize the labour market.
- After contracting through the first half of the year, the Canadian economy appears ready to recover some lost ground in the coming months. The labour market added 27,000 jobs in August, the first gain in four months. With real disposable income rising again and household wealth rebounding from March lows, we think the economy is set to start growing again in the second half of the year.
