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Economic Monitor

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World: Intensifying signals of recovery

Wed, Oct 28 2009, 11:28 GMT
by Economic and Strategy Team

National Bank of Canada


Highlights

  • The global recovery seems to be putting down roots. It is now broader-based than just a few months ago. The leading economic indicators of the OECD countries are now sending the strongest recovery signal since 2003. The global economy seems increasingly likely to expand more than 3% next year.
  • U.S. employment is ready to start growing again. This development, with support from business investment and a probably sustainable revival in housing, can be expected to put the U.S. recovery on a firmer footing.
  • The Canadian economy is likely to end the year considerably stronger than a disappointing July GDP report would suggest. The prospects for sustainable recovery have been brightened by a spectacular improvement in full-time employment. In short, the recovery scenario is materializing. Our forecast for Canadian real growth in 2010 is 2.9%.

Published on  Wed, Oct 28 2009, 11:30 GMT


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This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements about the 2009 Economic and Financial Outlook. Such statements are subject to risk and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors, including legislative or regulatory developments, competition, technological change and economic conditions in Canada, North America or internationally. These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers should not rely unduly on National Bank of Canada’s forward-looking statements. This presentation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of National Bank.

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