Economic Commentary
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Housing Chartbook: October 2007
Tue, Oct 16 2007, 06:34 GMT
by Adam York, Mark Vitner
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Executive Summary
The recent turmoil in the mortgage market and near shutdown of the subprime lending market is further restricting the supply of qualified homebuyers. Recent months have seen the secondary market for subprime and nontraditional mortgages dry-up. It is nearly impossible today to sell subprime loans, stated income loans, interest-only loans, and even high quality jumbo loans into the secondary market. As a result, terms on such loans have tightened considerably.
Tighter lending standards are making it considerably tougher for potential homebuyers to qualify for a mortgage. Banks generally reported falling demand for all types of mortgages, with the sharpest drop occurring in subprime loans. With lending standards remaining tight, we have again lowered our forecast for both new and existing home sales. Sales of new homes are now expected to plunge nearly 22 percent this year, while sales of existing homes should decline 11 percent. While these drops are dramatic, it is important to remember that most of this decline has already occurred. The bulk of the correction in the housing sector is behind us.
The meltdown in the secondary mortgage market makes forecasting home sales particularly difficult. Delinquencies and defaults typically take a while to show up and probably will not top out for several more quarters. Tighter lending standards in recent months mean that credit quality and delinquencies will most likely be the worst for mortgages originated in late 2005 and early 2006. This still means that any noticeable improvement in credit conditions is, at a minimum, a few quarters away.
We have long noted that many of the problems currently plaguing the housing market can be traced back to the huge role speculators played in the housing market back in 2004, 2005 and early 2006. Speculators made demand appear much stronger than it actually was from a fundamental standpoint. The added push from speculators drove prices up to levels that priced out many buyers in California, Arizona, Nevada, the greater Washington D.C. area and areas around New York City. While these markets had the greatest speculative excesses, investors and speculators were active in markets all across the country.
What needs to happen now is for prices of new and existing homes to adjust back to levels where families earning the median household income can once again afford to buy a wide assortment of homes, particularly in Florida, Nevada and California. Price declines in these markets are likely to be fairly significant in coming quarters. For the rest of the country, price adjustments will be far more modest and most areas will simply see price appreciation slow rather than endure outright price declines.
Starts of single-family homes will likely fall sharply in coming months, as builders respond to tighter credit conditions. We still see home construction bottoming in the coming year, however, as sharp adjustments in new construction have already occurred in the parts of the country that face the greatest oversupply. After tumbling 28 percent this year, we expect starts of new single-family homes to fall an additional 11 percent in 2008. More drastic reductions simply are not needed, as most of the reduction in new home construction has been in markets where overbuilding and speculative buying were the worst.
Construction of apartments is actually picking up slightly, which should offset some of the slowing we expect in the condominium market. In total, starts of multi-family projects, which includes apartments, condominiums and town homes, are expected to be unchanged in the coming year.
For the second year in a row, sales of new homes will not fall nearly as much as construction will, which will help eat away at the oversupply of homes on the market. We expect sales of new single-family homes to fall 6.0 percent in 2008, following an 11 percent drop this past year. Sales of existing homes are expected to decline 7.9 percent. Builders will need to clear out their own inventories before inventories of recently built existing homes will begin to clear. From a national standpoint, we expect the supply and demand of housing to be roughly in balance by the end of the year, which should allow for some modest improvement in both sales and new construction in 2009.
Applications Bounce and Level-off
Applications may have received some lift in recent months from tighter lending standards, as many applicants are filling out more applications looking for a willing lender. The increase in multiple application files makes it a bit more difficult to gauge actual demand for mortgages.
Applications for adjustable rate mortgages have cooled off considerably. Part of the decline simply reflects the small gap that currently exists between fixed rate and adjustable rate mortgages. Lenders are also curbing their offerings of adjustable rate products, shedding many of the more exotic mortgage products.
Affordability Hit Hard by Rising Mortgage Rates
Affordability is still stretched in many parts of country. Sales in areas where prices rose the fastest, such as Florida and California, are currently seeing some of the largest declines. Home prices are beginning to correct and job and income growth remain solid. Affordability has risen slightly from its lows. Unfortunately, rising mortgage rates are cutting into this improvement, and tighter lending standards are another problem. The interest rate on jumbo mortgages has also risen, which is compounding the problem in higher priced and second-home markets. The cost and availability of insurance is another limiting issue for many coastal markets.
Starts Fall Further on Credit Woes
Recent credit woes have sent housing on another downswing. The impact on starts will be more muted than some are expecting as most builders are now ramping down production as fast as they can. Inventories are still too high, however, particularly in Florida, northern Virginia, Arizona, Nevada and parts of California. There are also some bright spots, including Houston, Charlotte, Raleigh, Nashville, and Austin in the South, and Seattle and Portland in the West. While we still expect starts to fall further in coming months, we should see a bottom by the middle of next year.
Permits Reach Multi-year Lows
Declines in permits are beginning to show improvements in year-over-year change figures do to lower comps in late 2006. These improvements should give little comfort to investors, except to note permits are approaching a definitive floor in some of the hardest hit markets. Several states have seen extremely large declines. Florida has seen permits tumble 43 percent over the past year and 68 percent from their cyclical peak. In Nevada, permits are down 49 percent year to year and 71.5 percent from their peak. Permits for new homes in California are off 34 percent over the past year and 66 percent from their peak. How much further can they fall?
New Home Sales Retrace Bounce and Then Some
New homes sales reached a new business cycle low in August, as credit concerns and market volatility weighed on the minds of consumers. The drop in sales likely does not capture the extent of how much demand has weakened. The new home sales figures do not take cancellations into account, and cancellations soared in August, as tighter credit conditions made it tougher for would-be homebuyers to qualify for a mortgage. Fortunately, inventories are now falling and should continue to retreat over the next few years, as housing completions are now steadily declining. We expect to see considerable improvement in inventories over the course of 2008.
Existing Home Sales Continue Slide
Since rising early this year, existing home sales haven fallen back almost 18 percent and we would expect these declines to continue for several more months. We do not expect existing home sales to bottom out until late spring at the earliest.
Existing home inventories remain high and part of this glut reflects new homes purchased by speculators that had expected to flip them before construction was completed. Many investors are unable to cut prices much from current levels while builders can cut their prices on competing homes or add amenities, which is one reason existing home inventories remain high and prices remain sticky.
Price Indices Still Show Split Opinion
The OFHEO index, our preferred measure of housing prices, continues to show positive appreciation, year over year. Eighty-percent of the U.S. population, covered by the survey, lives in a metro area where prices are up, year over year. We think this indicates less of a wealth effect on spending than some are forecasting in coming quarters. The S&P/Case-Schiller Index of 20 major markets shows a more severe decline, with overall prices falling 3.9 percent over the past year. With the exception of Detroit, the largest price declines are in markets where prices had previously surged and where investors made up a larger proportion of earlier home purchases.
Delinquencies Continue to Rise
Mortgage delinquency rates have risen in recent months, particularly for adjustablerate subprime loans. We expect delinquency rates for such loans to rise at least through the middle of next year, as many of the subprime loans made after the housing market peaked two years ago have experienced a high level of early payment defaults. Delinquency rates on fixed-rate subprime loans and prime conventional loans have risen far less. ABX spreads have moved largely sideways but remain at extremely wide levels, which means it remains tough for lenders to sell mortgages into the secondary market.
Published on
Tue, Oct 16 2007, 06:38 GMT
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Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks.
If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets.
Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues
The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement.
Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account.
Fast Markets
A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system.
In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors.
Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading.
Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price.
Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed.
Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected.
Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets
During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent.
Freeriding is Prohibited
Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security.
Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days.
Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better.
Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
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