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Housing Chartbook − June 2007

Mon, Jun 11 2007, 15:33 GMT
by Jason Schenker

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC


Global Growth Outlook

Global growth is likely to slow this year to 4.3 percent from 5.4 percent last year. Although we believe the growth rate this year will be slower year over year, it is still above-trend historically. Economic growth so far this year has been somewhat of a mixed bag, with some economies exhibiting moderation and others continuing to remain strong. The slowing of growth is largely the result of central bank moves to raise policy rates across a number of economies. While emerging markets and developed economies could be a mixed bag growth-wise this year, inflationary pressures are likely to ease in most economies. U.S. inflationary concerns are, according to the May FOMC minutes, “the predominant policy concern” of the Fed. Despite a slowdown in growth in the United States, we find that the Fed has likely pulled off a soft landing, and that growth is likely to rebound after the first quarter. At the same time, globally, we also see a similar soft landing scenario coming to fruition.

United States Growth Outlook

The drags on U.S. GDP growth probably will diminish this year. Housing is likely to be less of a drag, as are the auto and trucking sectors. With consumer spending bolstered by a low unemployment rate and continued job gains, we expect U.S. GDP to be around 2.2 percent for all of 2007. This is lower than the 3.3 percent real GDP growth rate seen in the United States last year and also lower than our forecasted real GDP growth rate for 2008 of 3.3 percent.

Fed Expectations

After depreciating earlier this year, the dollar has stabilized versus most major currencies over the past month due in part to shifting expectations about Fed policy going forward. Statements by Fed Chairman Bernanke and positive economic indicators point to strength—and future Fed rate hikes. Our forecast released this month includes revisions to our Fed expectations. We were previously forecasting one rate hike in 2008, but we have now revised our forecast to include two rate hikes. Consumer confidence, ISM surveys, a low unemployment rate and a number of other economic indicators point toward potential Fed hikes next year.

Dollar Stabilization

As little as a month ago, many investors expected the Fed to cut rates this year. However, stronger-than-expected data over the past few weeks have led many market participants to conclude that the U.S. economy does not need an easing of monetary policy. U.S. bond yields and Fed futures have risen, lending some support to the greenback. Although the dollar could rally in the near term, we do not believe that sustained appreciation is imminent. Indeed, we continue to project that the greenback will trend lower over the next few quarters.

As is widely known, the United States continues to post massive current account deficits that need to be financed via net capital inflows. Although foreign purchases of U.S. securities remain at high levels, they appear to be trending slowly lower. At the same time, U.S. purchases of foreign securities have jumped recently, meaning that net capital inflows have weakened. Lower net capital inflows have put downward pressure on the greenback.

Interest Rate Differentials

We believe interest rate differentials will need to move back in favor of dollar assets for a sustained dollar rally to take place. While Fed rate hikes are still about a year away, other central banks, which generally have lagged the Federal Reserve in this tightening cycle, will likely continue to hike rates, and with good reason. Growth rates in most foreign economies remain very solid, and it is hard to make a convincing case that global financial conditions are restrictive at present. Although inflation rates in most foreign economies remain benign, foreign central banks may take preemptive steps to ensure that inflation rates do indeed remain under control. Therefore, rates abroad should continue to head higher at a modest pace.

The Eventual Swing Back in the Dollar’s Favor

Looking far ahead, our forecast calls for the dollar to strengthen in the second half of next year. We generally try to refrain from picking turning points in dollar exchange rates far in the future. However, the greenback has been depreciating on a trend basis for five years, and it is bound to turn around sooner or later. Besides, the turnaround we project is consistent with our expectations that the FOMC will tighten anew next year. As interest rate differentials move back in favor of the dollar, the relative attractiveness of dollar assets will begin to improve, which should lead to stronger capital inflows. To reiterate, we believe that the dollar will weaken further before it begins a sustained turnaround. In our view, higher rates in the United States are needed before a trend change in the dollar can begin. Although the FOMC still seems to be a long way from raising rates.

Energy and Metals Prices Settling into a Range

As the dollar has settled into a trading range against most major currencies, so, too, have the prices of most metals and energy commodities. Although oil remains elevated by numerous geopolitical concerns, the price has been relatively rangebound for months. The prospect that oil prices may have settled in for a number of years in the $60-$65 range seems a likely possibility. Retail gasoline prices are a major concern in the United States, but retail prices could very well be more moderate next summer, but are also likely to be higher this coming winter than they were this past winter. This means that consumer price inflation could be subject to less upward pressure at the headline level as those gasoline prices ease on a year over year basis next year. Indeed, the threat to U.S. inflation levels next year comes largely from continued increases in capacity utilization and a continued tightening of the labor force.

In the near term, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is likely to continue trading at a discount to Brent crude. However, we see the crude oil premium as narrowing in coming quarters. In the longer run, natural gas prices are likely to increase on-trend as a result of changes in carbon emissions regulations. The longrun increase in the price of natural gas and elevated crude prices are likely to support metals prices in coming quarters. While most commodity prices might not surge in coming quarters as they have done in recent years, they are likely to remain high historically.


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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.


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