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Will Hong Kong Follow China and Kuwait?
Fri, May 25 2007, 09:51 GMT
by Jay H. Bryson
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
China and Kuwait Make Changes to Their Exchange Rate Regime
What do China and Kuwait have in common? If you answered that they both recently made changes to their respective exchange rate regimes, then you are right on the money. On Friday May 18, China widened the daily fluctuation band of the yuan/dollar exchange rate from 0.3% to 0.5%, which, in theory, gives Beijing the ability to speed up the rate of renminbi appreciation that has been painfully slow to date.1 Three days later, Kuwait dropped the fixed exchange rate of the Kuwaiti dinar versus the U.S. dollar to a peg based on a basket of currencies. Thus, both the renminbi and the dinar could now move more against the dollar than in the recent past.
When we look around the world, there are not many currencies that remain fixed to the dollar. There are the other countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and Kuwait’s decision to move to a peg based on a currency basket raises the probability that some of these countries may follow suit.2 Another major economy with a fixed exchange rate is Hong Kong, which has effectively maintained a fixed value of the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. dollar since 1983.3 Could Hong Kong be in line to make a change to its exchange rate regime?
Cyclical and Secular Reasons for Currency Appreciation
Before we attempt to answer that question, let’s quickly review why China and Kuwait each made a change to its respective exchange rate regime. Although the Chinese government did not offer an official explanation for its move, we have our hunches. First, a faster rate of appreciation would serve China’s economic interests. As shown in Exhibit 1, CPI inflation in China is on the rise again, and faster exchange rate appreciation would help to restrain inflationary pressures. Indeed, Chinese officials worry about overheating. Second, Beijing’s geopolitical interests are served by widening the exchange rate band. The Bush administration and many U.S. lawmakers have been calling on China to speed up the pace of renminbi appreciation. With a delegation of high-level Chinese officials on its way to Washington this week, the timing of last week’s announcement is no mystery.
Kuwait’s decision to change its exchange rate regime from a dollar peg to a peg based on a basket of currencies also was done because of economic reasons. Exhibit 1 shows that CPI inflation in Kuwait has consistently exceeded the central bank’s target of 2% over the last three years. About one-third of Kuwait’s imports come from the European Union. The depreciation of the dollar vis-à-vis the euro over the past few years, which has resulted in dinar depreciation versus the euro, has raised import prices, thereby helping to feed inflation. By pegging the dinar to a basket of currencies rather than exclusively to a weakening dollar, Kuwaiti authorities hope to reduce imported inflation.
Moreover, China and Kuwait are both experiencing fundamental economic changes that bolster the economic case for real currency appreciation. Kuwait is a resource-based economy whose chief export (petroleum) has experienced a price boom over the past few years. Kuwait’s current account surplus has shot up to about 40% of GDP. Money is just pouring into the country, and the sound economic policy response is to allow the currency to appreciate on a real basis. Likewise, the Chinese economy is undergoing a long-run structural transformation. As the productivity gap between China and the rest of the world narrows, the currency should appreciate.
Case for Currency Appreciation in Hong Kong Not as Clear Cut
With that overview in mind, let’s return to the original question. Could Hong Kong make a change to its exchange rate regime? Although anything is possible, we think the probability of a change is very low, at least in the foreseeable future. First, inflation in Hong Kong is not much of an issue at present (see Exhibit 1). The low rate of inflation over the past three years follows nearly six years of deflation. Indeed, the overall level of consumer prices in Hong Kong remains more than 10% below the peak in 1998.
Moreover, there are not the same secular reasons for currency appreciation in Hong Kong as there are in China and Kuwait. Yes, real GDP growth in Hong Kong has been strong over the past few years, due in part to robust growth in mainland China.4 However, the structure of the Hong Kong economy is much closer to the U.S. economy than it is to either the Chinese or Kuwaiti economies. That is, Hong Kong is a developed economy that is driven almost exclusively by services, not by resource extraction or a booming manufacturing sector. The economic rationale for real currency appreciation in Hong Kong is not as clear cut as it is in China and Kuwait.
Finally, Hong Kong’s fixed exchange rate to the U.S. dollar has served it well over the past twenty years. The old American saying of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” may apply in the case of Hong Kong’s exchange rate regime. Therefore, we expect that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will maintain the effective peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. dollar for the foreseeable future.
However, that does not mean the peg is forever immutable. As Hong Kong’s economy becomes even more integrated with the economy of the mainland, an alteration of the exchange rate regime becomes more likely. Perhaps Hong Kong authorities will someday decide to tie their currency more closely with the yuan by, say, pegging to a basket of currencies that includes the yuan.
In the longer-run there is also the possibility that the Hong Kong dollar will someday simply cease to exist. China will regain full sovereignty over Hong Kong in 2047. Will Beijing allow one city in China to retain its own currency? Probably not. The Hong Kong dollar may not even make it 40 years longer. As the renminbi becomes convertible, Hong Kong residents may start to transact in yuan instead of Hong Kong dollars. To paraphrase General Douglas MacArthur, the Hong Kong dollar may “just fade away.” To reiterate, however, the Hong Kong dollar will be a viable currency for the foreseeable future, and it very likely will remain pegged to the U.S. dollar at its current exchange rate for some time.
Published on
Fri, May 25 2007, 09:58 GMT
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Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
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Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
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Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
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Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
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Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
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Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
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