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Energy Forecast Chartbook − Q4 2006

Mon, Oct 16 2006, 07:08 GMT
by Jason Schenker

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC


  • In our piece from July entitled Energy: Iran, Forward Curves and Forecasts we substituted a standard energy chartbook with a piece focused on the argument that Iran had no intention of cutting oil exports. We made the claim that Iran would become a non-issue, and at that point the price of crude would fall back to the $55 - $60 per barrel range (Exhibit 2). Now, with Iran having faded into the background, the price of oil has indeed retreated to the range we predicted. With the onset of the fourth quarter, we find energy prices facing significant downward pressure. Inventories are high, economic growth is slowing in the U.S. and abroad, the hurricane season was quiet and growth is slowing.

  • The biggest change in the energy market has been the nature of the risk premium. The current price of crude is a function of supply and demand dynamics – in the present and in the future. Now, in lieu of a future disruption of supplies from Iran that could push prices to record highs, we now find a market pricing in some downside demand risk stemming from the likelihood of slower growth. We expect an economic soft landing, in which case commodity prices may retain volatility but are likely to move sideways on-trend. If, however, growth slows more rapidly than expected, commodity prices are likely to collapse – with energy prices leading the charge down.

  • Because we had anticipated a sharp decline in crude, we have left our forecast for the price of crude relatively unchanged. The forward curve of crude has even fallen to levels that more closely reflect our own forecasts. The dollar-clearing arbitrage level continues to point towards support of crude at the $50-$55 per barrel range (Exhibit 1).

  • Central banks all over the world have raised interest rates to stave off inflation (Exhibit 3).The problem is that higher interest rates engender slower growth. Our forecasts for 2007 show a broad-based slowing of growth and an easing of inflation. (Exhibit 4). This means that the policy rate moves of various central banks are expected to have had their desired impacts. But, it also means that growth will be slower in 2007 than it was in 2006. Since oil demand and global GDP growth are strongly correlated (Exhibit 5), it also means that oil demand is likely to slow.

  • It is typical during the period of weak, or shoulder, demand in the fall that gasoline prices fall. It is, however, an absolute anomaly, however, how much they have fallen. The lack of a severe hurricane season has made the supply of refined products seem more secure, while the natural drop-off in gasoline demand has pushed down the demand-side of the equation. With wholesale gasoline prices close to $1.50 per gallon, we find retail gasoline prices also very close to their previous lows of the year back in February (Exhibit 6).

  • Although prices have collapsed recently, the demand dynamics surrounding the plummet in prices is not perennial, but transitory. We expect gasoline demand will rise year-over-year, and that wholesale prices will rise with the on-set of refining ahead of the next peak driving season. Although it is difficult to call the bottom, given the weak gasoline demand dynamics in the winter, it is clear that retail gasoline prices are going to move towards $2.00 this winter, and perhaps be sub-two dollars in many areas. The concern about high gasoline prices and the move to more fuel efficient vehicles could see some diminution as prices ameliorate. Gasoline prices will not be enough to save the U.S. economy from this slowdown, and the impact to consumers is likely to be marginal. This is especially true since demand is up year-to-date by 0.7 percent. Still, we expect national retail gasoline prices to remain around the $2.00 to $2.25 level for most of the winter.

  • While gasoline prices may hibernate for the winter before resurging sharply in the spring, heating oil prices have moved lower on a lack of demand that is soon to appear. The on-set of winter, or perhaps even the contract roll that will make the December heating oil contract the near-contract should begin to give this market some legs. Even if crude moves lower, heating oil is likely to move higher. Even if inventories are lush now, winter weather can be a real wild card. Sure, El Nino is poised to allow for a mild winter in the Northeast, but wasn’t the 2006 hurricane season supposed to be just as bad as the 2005 season with the potential for a Katrina-Rita redux? We’re not likely to put much stock in the forecast for an abnormal anything, but see the likelihood of an average winter to be more likely. As such, we believe that there are upside risks to heating oil prices from current levels. Furthermore, if the winter does turn out to be cold, we see the potential for higher prices in the spring, especially with competing distillate demand coming from the diesel space.

  • Gasoline prices, heating oil prices and crude oil prices have plummeted. Only diesel prices haven’t fallen as far, or as fast (Exhibit 7). It’s clear that diesel prices are displaying stickiness on the downside, and it has everything to do with the conversion from low sulfur diesel to ultra low sulfur diesel that will be completed by January 1, 2007. This conversion process is no where near complete. Ultra low sulfur diesel inventories have been rising, but low sulfur diesel remains a significant portion of inventory (Exhibit 8). In other words, there are real concerns about diesel supply. So, even if heating oil and diesel prices have fallen, there is weather cyclicality to the price of heating oil and it is a distillate product, which means that there is a risk of a physical diesel shortage in some areas at the end of the year and through the beginning of 2007. The impact this will have on crude is less clear, but it is extremely likely that as ultra low sulfur diesel demand surges, and heating oil demand peaks, prices of distillate products could spike. Much will depend on the weather, but while retail gasoline moves towards $2.00 per gallon, retail diesel is likely to move towards $3.00 per gallon, with even further upside risk at the pump.

  • OPEC production has been around 30 million barrels per day for a number of months. Recently, however, the amount produced has been sliding moderately for the past few months (Exhibit 9). This has been more the result of easing demand, rather than a concerted effort to cut off supplies. At the last OPEC meeting, a production cut was discussed, but no unanimity was reached. Even if there is a meeting, it is not likely to occur before the end of Ramadan on October 23rd. Furthermore, even if there were a production cut of one million barrels, it is likely that some members may cheat, of which there is a long tradition. Still, it could give some footing to the market as it heads into the stronger heating oil demand season. Oil prices may be down, but are likely not out. Mother Nature, however, could be a more important market mover than OPEC.

  • For the past three weeks, natural gas injections have been below 80 Bcf. Although still decent builds, we have seen the surplus of inventory above the five-year moving average diminish to the lowest level all year – at 11.8 percent (Exhibit 10). Near-contract prices have moved up with the trading of the November contract and the on-set of somewhat colder weather. Rig counts remain high, but the contango in the winter strip -- with a peak near $8.00 – shows that risks remain to the upside beyond the shoulder period. Still, we have revised down our forecasts for natural gas prices for the coming year (Exhibit 11), demand may slacken with slower economic growth, and rig counts remain near record levels.

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Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. 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A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. 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Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.


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