http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-19.htmlLeading Index – Underscores U.S. Economy Will Continue to Grow The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.3% in October, after a 1.0% increase in the prior month. On a year-to-year basis, the leading index moved up 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009 (based on October data). The year-to-year change in the leading index has held in the positive territory for two consecutive quarters. Historical record of the leading index supports expectations of continued growth of realThu, 19 Nov 2009 22:01:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-18.htmlHigher Prices for Cars and Energy Lifted CPI in October The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in October after a 0.2% increase in the prior month. The details of the October CPI report indicate that higher prices for cars and energy were the predominant gains. The energy price index moved up 1.5% in October, with higher gasoline prices accounting for a large part of the increase. Food prices inched up only 0.1% following a 0.1% decline in the prior month. Year-to-date the CPI has risen atWed, 18 Nov 2009 22:01:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-17.htmlFed Reduces Term of Discount Window Loans The Fed announced a reduction in the term of discount window loans to 28 days from 90 days as of January 14, 2010. The Fed lengthened the maturity of discount window loans on August 17, 2007 to 30 days from a maximum term of overnight and extended it further to 90 days on March 16, 2008. As seen in Chart 1, the need for discount window loans has reduced significantly from the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This marks the beginning ofTue, 17 Nov 2009 23:15:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-16.htmlChairman Bernanke Stresses Job Market and Credit Conditions, the Dollar Received Special Mention The Chairman spoke at length about credit conditions and the labor market. In his opinion, impaired financial market conditions have led to banks holding larger buffers compared to the situation prior to the onset of the current crisis. In addition, a shaky economic environment marked with high loan losses and uncertainty about regulatory capital standards are factors restraining the growth ofMon, 16 Nov 2009 22:00:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-15.htmlWidening of Trade Deficit Reflects Oil Imports and Improving Economic Conditions The trade deficit widened to $36.5 billion in September vs. $30.8 billion in August. Exports (+2.9%) and imports (+5.8%) of goods and services grew in September. A large part of the import bill was due to an increase in oil imports resulting from higher prices and a larger quantity of imports (+7.0%). The trade deficit has risen about $10 billion in the past five months from a low of $26.4 billion in April 2009.Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:14:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-12.htmlNoteworthy News from Labor Market - Total Continuing Claims are Trending Down Initial jobless claims dropped 12,000 to 502,000 during the week ended November 7, the lowest reading in a year. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, declined 139,000 to 5.631 million. Total claims which include recipients under the special programs, Extended Benefits Program and Emergency Unemployment Compensation Program, were 9.81 million during the week ended October 24, down from 10 millionThu, 12 Nov 2009 22:25:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-10.v02.htmlYellen on Budget Deficit and Inflation Janet Yellen, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, and a voting member of the FOMC had this to say about budget deficits and inflation in this morning’s speech: “Persistent large budget deficits may be harmful once the economy recovers because they are apt to boost interest rates and absorb private savings that would otherwise finance productive investments. But experience teaches us that budget deficits do not cause inflation in advancedTue, 10 Nov 2009 22:05:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-10.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-10.htmlOctober Senior Loan Officers Survey – Improved Picture of Lending Conditions, but Demand for Loans was Weak The main aspect that stands out in the October 2009 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey is that lending conditions were less tight than survey results of July 2009 indicated and they was a substantial improvement from the October 2008 survey when credit markets had frozen. The net fraction of banks that reported tightening standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans for largeTue, 10 Nov 2009 02:42:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-08.htmlOctober Employment Report: Headline Jobless Rate is Troubling, but it is a Lagging Indicator Civilian Unemployment Rate: 10.2% in October vs. 9.8% in September, cycle low is 4.4% in March 2007. Payroll Employment: - 190,000 in October vs. -219,000 in September, net gain of 91,000 jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for August and September. Hourly earnings: $18.72 in October vs. $18.67 in September, 2.4% yoy increase vs. 2.5% yoy increase in September, cycle high is 4.28% yoy increase inSun, 08 Nov 2009 22:03:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-05.htmlThe November 4 FOMC Policy Statement Revisited The economic threshold to bring about a tightening of monetary conditions, although always implicit, was made explicit in the policy statement of November 4 and this aspect needs further elaboration. “Low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations” is the key phrase indicating what could trigger a change in monetary policy. Related to this backdrop is our comment of November 4, 2009 which includes aThu, 05 Nov 2009 22:54:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-04.htmlFed Retains Stance of September FOMC Meeting The FOMC policy statement following the meeting of November 3-4 retains roughly the stance that was conveyed in the September policy statement. In the November 4 policy statement, the Fed also left unchanged the much quoted phrase – “warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” Essentially, the Fed is no rush to change its monetary policy stance. The financial media appears to have reacted prematurely after theWed, 04 Nov 2009 22:32:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-03.htmlWill Real GDP Growth in the First Year of Recovery Match Historical Norm? Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5%in the third quarter. This is impressive but the pace of economic activity in the quarters ahead will be much more subdued until the final three months of 2010. In the September 9, 2009 commentary, it was noted that history tells us that real GDP has advanced at a rapid clip in the first four quarters of a recovering economy (see table 1). The median increase of real GDP in theTue, 03 Nov 2009 22:53:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-02.htmlFactory Sector Maintains Expansionary Trend The ISM manufacturing composite index rose to 55.7 in October, marking the third consecutive monthly reading that exceeds 50.0. Readings in excess of 50 denote an expanding factory sector. The new orders index (58.5 vs. 60.8 in September) edged down slightly in October implying that orders are growing but at a slower pace compared with the prior month. The sharp increase of the production index (+7.6 to 63.3) puts it at the highest in nearly fiveMon, 02 Nov 2009 23:08:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-01.htmlConsumer Spending – Mild Increase in Q4 The impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) is visible in the third quarter GDP report and the President’s Council of Economic Advisers has estimated that the ARRA contributed between 3 and 4 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter. The “Cash for Clunkers” program was not part of the original ARRA but was included by a supplemental bill and funds were reallocated. The purchase of cars under this program accounted forSun, 01 Nov 2009 23:05:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-11-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-29.htmlRecession is History, Economy Back in Business The recession is behind us. Real gross domestic product of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter after a 0.75 drop in the prior quarter. This is the first increase of real GDP after a string of four quarterly declines. Real GDP has declined in five out of the six quarters of the recession. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research will make the official announcement after itThu, 29 Oct 2009 21:58:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-28.htmlSales of New Homes Decline, but Inventories and Prices remain Favorable Sales of new single-family homes fell 3.6% to an annual rate of 402,000 in September after a downwardly revised gain in August. Sales of new homes dropped in the South (-10%) and West (-10.6%) which more than offset the 34% gain in the Midwest. Sales of new homes held steady in the Northeast. Sales of new single-family have moved up 22% from the cycle low reading of 329,000 in January 2009. It appears that existing homesWed, 28 Oct 2009 22:01:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-27.htmlCase-Shiller Home Price Index – Further Improvement in Home Prices The Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20-metro areas increased 1.0% in August, the third consecutive monthly gain. This favorable price picture and the improvement in home sales are supported by the $8000 first-time home buyer tax credit program and the low mortgage rate environment. At the same time, mortgage modification programs have also contributed to the stability of the housing market. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index onTue, 27 Oct 2009 21:55:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-26.htmlChicago National Activity Index – More Validation about Economic Recovery The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) slipped slightly in September to -0.81 from a revised -0.65 reading in August. However, the 3-month moving average improved to -0.63 in September from -0.96 in the prior month. According to the Chicago Fed, “when the 3-month moving average of the CFNAI moves below -0.70 following a period of expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun.” TheMon, 26 Oct 2009 22:04:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-25.v02.htmlExisting Homes: Sales, Inventories, and Prices Heading in the Desired Direction Sales of all existing homes rose 9.4% to annual rate of 5.57 million in September after a 2.9% drop in the previous month. Single-family existing home sales also advanced 9.4% to an annual rate of 4.89 million units. The level of single-family existing home sales is at the highest mark since August 2007 and it is nearly 21% higher than the cycle low recorded in January 2009 (4.05 million units). Sales of existingSun, 25 Oct 2009 21:58:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-25.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-22.htmlIndex of Leading Indicators Confirms Forecast of Economic Recovery The Index of Leading Indicators increased 1.0% in September, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase. This string of gains is convincing indication that an economic recovery is underway. On a quarterly basis, the index has moved 1.8% from a year ago, the first increase since the fourth quarter of 2006. Once again, the index has provided valuable guidance about the course of the economy. In September, with exception ofThu, 22 Oct 2009 21:56:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-21.v02.htmlHome Sales – A Preview Sales data of existing and new homes for the month of September will be published on October 23 and October 28, respectively. Market expectations are for gains in sales of both existing homes (+4.9% to 5.35 million units) and new homes (+2.5% to 440,000 units). These gains would translate into a 19% increase in sales of all existing homes from the bottom established in January 2009 (4.490 million units). The likely increase in sales of new homes in September would implyWed, 21 Oct 2009 21:58:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-21.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-20.htmlHome Construction – Mild Improvement in September Starts for new homes rose 0.5% to an annual rate of 590,000 in September. Single-family starts registered gains (+3.9%) while that of multi-family units fell 15.2%. Although the September numbers appear to be lackluster, single-family starts have risen in six out of the first nine months of 2009 and have advanced 40% from the cycle low of 357,000 in January 2009 to 501,000 in September. On a regional basis, starts of new homes increased in theTue, 20 Oct 2009 21:54:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-19.htmlPublic Debt of the U.S., its Peers, and the Dollar Publicly held debt of the U.S. was 40.8% of GDP in 2008. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the ratio of debt to GDP ratio will peak by 2011 at 54.4% and start to taper down in the years ahead. The costs associated with the wars and the financial crisis has led to the sharp jump in the budget deficit in 2008 and 2009, which has consequently raised the ratio of debt to GDP. The other nations of the G-7 also have accumulated debt suchMon, 19 Oct 2009 21:57:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-18.htmlWidespread Strength in Factory Report Industrial production increased 0.7% in September, following an upwardly revised 1.2% gain in the prior month. The industrial production index hit the cycle low in June (see chart) and has since risen every month. In the third quarter, industrial production rose at an annual rate of 5.2%, the first increase since the first quarter of 2008. Production at the nation’s mines (0.7%) advanced while that of utilities (-0.7%) fell in September. Factory activity,Sun, 18 Oct 2009 21:59:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-15.htmlInflation Remains a Non-Issue, For Now The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% in September after a 0.4% increase in the prior month. In the third quarter, the CPI has increased 3.6% after a 1.3% gain in the second quarter. On a year-to-year basis, the CPI fell 1.3% in September. The food price index dropped 0.1% during September vs. a 0.1% increase in August. The energy price index moved up 0.6% in September compared with a 4.6% jump in the previous month. The core CPI, which excludesThu, 15 Oct 2009 22:21:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-14.htmlMinutes of September 22-23 FOMC Meeting – More of the Same The minutes of the September 22-23 FOMC meeting contain the typical pros and cons of Fed policy, with nothing standing out. The willingness of some members to enlarge the size of the mortgage-backed securities purchase plan could be raised to “reduce economic slack more quickly than in the baseline outlook.” At the same time, another member held the opinion that improvements underway implied a reduction of these purchases. TheWed, 14 Oct 2009 22:23:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-13.htmlIncrease Employment the Same Way You Increase Home Sales Every month in its survey of economists’ forecasts, the WSJ asks various inane questions. In its latest survey, one of the questions had to do with what the government could do to increase employment. Now that health-care “reform” appears to be on its way to being a done deal, the D.C. issue du jour is employment stimulus. Various kinds of employer-tax incentives are in the initial stages of being proposed. Of course, the editorial boardTue, 13 Oct 2009 22:13:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-11.htmlChairman Bernanke on Fed’s Exit Strategy The Chairman Bernanke presented a detailed explanation of the Fed’s balance sheet and exit strategy at yesterday’s Federal Reserve Board Conference on Key Developments in Monetary Policy in Washington. Bernanke noted that “accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period. At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road.”Sun, 11 Oct 2009 22:10:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-08.htmlThe Inflation Story – What is the Evidence? There is a growing concern about an inflationary threat in the U.S. economy given the enormous monetary accommodation the Fed has put in place. As expected, there are differing opinions about this issue. Putting the available information in perspective, a strong case exists for inflation to be a few notches down on the Fed’s priority list in the short term. The important phrase here is “short term.” There are many compelling aspects in the recoveringThu, 08 Oct 2009 22:30:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-07.htmlThe Workweek in “Jobless Recoveries” The current upswing in economic activity is most likely to be the third “jobless recovery” following the 1991 and 2001 economic recoveries when employment growth was subpar for several months after the official recovery commenced. The reduction in the duration of the average workweek is standing out in recent employment reports. Historically, the workweek has shown a downward trend for several decades (see chart 1). In September 2009, the average workweekWed, 07 Oct 2009 22:16:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-06.htmlAustralia: Taking the Lead With Higher Rates, But Who Will Follow? In a move that surprised some analysts, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its Overnight Call Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%. After a spate of strong economic indicators, signs of recovery from Australia’s major trade partners and a moderation in price increases, the markets had priced in some monetary tightening before year-end. This hike confirms those expectations, and along with a few choice comments in the RBA’sTue, 06 Oct 2009 22:13:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-05.htmlISM Non-Manufacturing Survey – Mixed News The composite index of the ISM Non-manufacturing Survey rose to 50.9 in September, the first reading above 50 since September 2008. Indexes tracking new orders (54.2 vs. 49.9 in August) and overall business activity (55.1 vs. 51.3) moved up in addition to indexes tracking backlogs, imports, and supplier deliveries. The employment index increased to 44.3 in September from 43.5 in August, indicating that payrolls were falling less rapidly in SeptemberMon, 05 Oct 2009 22:01:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-04.htmlSeptember Employment Situation – Mixed Message Much Like Other Recent Economic Reports Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.8% in September vs. 9.7% in August, cycle low is 4.4% in March 2007. Payroll Employment: -263,000 in September vs. -201,000 in August, net loss of 13,000 more jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for July and August. Hourly earnings: $18.67 in September vs. $18.66 in August, 2.5% yoy increase vs. 2.6% yoy increase in August, cycle high is 4.28% yoy increase in Dec. 2006.Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:00:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-01.htmlStrength of Consumer Spending is Driver of Q3 GDP Growth Real consumer spending increased 0.9% in August after a 0.2% gain during the prior month. The ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program was the major reason for the sharp increase in consumer spending. A large part of this gain will be reversed in September as the program expired in August. Taking into consideration the likely drop of consumer spending in September and the July-August estimates, consumer spending is now projected to have risen 3.3%.Thu, 01 Oct 2009 21:58:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-10-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-30.htmlMany Nuggets of Information about Fed’s Exit Policies from Vice Chairman Kohn Vice Chairman Kohn’s preemptive stance (see excerpt below) on the timing of monetary policy is not surprising: “So we must begin to withdraw accommodation well before aggregate spending threatens to press against potential supply, and well before inflation as well as inflation expectations rise above levels consistent with price stability.” Hints about the degree of monetary policy tightening -- whether aggressive orWed, 30 Sep 2009 22:03:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-29.htmlHome Prices Post a Significant Improvement – Housing Market is Stabilizing The Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 1.2% in July, the second straight monthly increase after a long stretch of declines which began in June 2006 (see chart 1). From a year ago, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is down 13.3%, a noteworthy improvement after a record drop of 19% was reported for January 2009. This house price index has fallen 32% from the peak in May 2006 and has now reversed the trend and gained 2%Tue, 29 Sep 2009 22:02:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-28.htmlChicago Fed Index Slips in August – Employment Indicators Held Back Index The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was -0.90 in August, down from the revised -0.56 reading in July. The 3-month moving average improved to -1.09 during August vs. -1.61 in July. Readings of the 3-month moving average of the CFNAI that are below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion point to a recessionary phase. The 3-month moving average of the CFNAI has improved from -3.63 in January 2009. InMon, 28 Sep 2009 21:57:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-27.htmlNew Homes Sales – Many Encouraging Details to Report Sales of new single-family homes increased slightly in August to an annual rate of 429,000 from 426,000 in July. On a regional basis, sales of new single family homes rose 12.2% in the West, fell in the Northeast (-16.3%) and Midwest (-5.8%), and was unchanged in the South. Sales of new single-family homes have risen 30.4% from the record low of 329,000 units in January 2009. The most noteworthy aspect of the report is that sales of newSun, 27 Sep 2009 22:02:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-24.htmlSales of Existing Homes are Stabilizing, although Headline Reading Fell in August Sales of all existing homes fell 2.7% to an annual rate of 5.1 million units during August, following a string of four monthly gains. Sales of new single-family homes fell 2.8% to an annual rate of 4.48 million units. The sales level of single-family existing homes is now up 10% from the record low of 4.050 million units in January. On a regional basis, sales of existing homes fell in the Northeast (-4.4%),Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:25:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-23.htmlFOMC Policy Statement - Nature of Incoming Data Allow Fed to Wait and Watch The tone of the policy statement and details are largely close to expectations. The federal funds rate was left unchanged at 0%-0.25%. The statement reiterates Chairman Bernanke’s opinion that an economic recovery is underway, representing a significant departure from the August policy statement which noted that “economic activity is leveling out.” The outlook for inflation remains favorable in the Fed’s opinion due toWed, 23 Sep 2009 22:10:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/webmaster@ntrs.com (Northern Trust)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/daily-global-commentary/2009-09-23.html