Noteworthy News from Labor Market - Total Continuing Claims are Trending Down
Initial jobless claims dropped 12,000 to 502,000 during the week ended November 7, the lowest reading in a year. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, declined 139,000 to 5.631 million.
Total claims which include recipients under the special programs, Extended Benefits Program and Emergency Unemployment Compensation Program, were 9.81 million during the week ended October 24, down from 10 million during the week ended October 3. These data underscore the positive developments in the labor market amid the gloomy news about a climbing unemployment rate. Initial jobless claims data are a leading indicator, while the overall jobless rate is a lagging economic indicator.
The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims is 519,750 for the week ended November 7. Historically, the median of the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims is 347,000. In other words, the current 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims is nearly half way from the median level of jobless claims. At the cost of stating the obvious, robust growth of real GDP will be necessary for achieve more vibrant conditions in the labor market but the current improvements remain significant.
