Mixed Messages About Employment From Surveys
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey for September showed an improvement of the Business Optimism Index (88.6 vs. 86.5) in August (see chart 1).
In particular, the net percent of firms planning to increase employment was zero after posting negative readings since November 2008 (see chart 2).
However, the Manpower Survey, which is a survey of 28,000 employers consisting of payrolls upwards of 15, presented a different picture. The outlook for the fourth quarter shows that employers’ plans to increase employment deteriorated further in the fourth quarter. The seasonally adjusted index was -3 for the fourth quarter vs. -2 in the third quarter. The net hiring index is the lowest on record in the history of this survey (see chart 3).
The Employment Trends Index of the Conference Board (a composite of eight labor market indicators) slipped 0.1% to 88.1 in August and is down 18.5% from a year ago.
