Total Jobless Claims Show Small Moderation
Initial jobless claims fell 4,000 to 570,000 during the week ended August 29. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, rose 92,000 to 6.234 million. The insured unemployment rate was up one notch at 4.7%.
Total continuing claims, which include claims from special programs (Emergency Unemployment Compensation and Extended Benefits Program), were down slightly to 9.6 million during the week ended August 15 vs. 9.66 million in the prior week. The jobless claims tally from special programs lags initial jobless claims by two weeks. The August employment report, which will be published on September 4, will offer more details about the labor market situation. The unemployment rate is predicted to have risen to 9.6% during August from 9.4% in July and payroll employment is most likely to show a loss of 250,000 jobs vs. a decline in July.
August Non-Manufacturing Survey – Confirms that Economic Recovery is Underway
The ISM non-manufacturing survey for August sends a message of recovery in the service sector. The Business Activity Index increased to 51.3 in August from 46.1 in July. The New Orders Index is a touch short of 50 (49.9) in August. Readings above 50 denote an expanding sector. The composite index stood at 48.4 in August, up from 4.4 in July. The main message is that underlying fundamentals are improving.
