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Daily Global Commentary

Jobless Claims – Seasonal Factors Distort Underlying Fundamentals

Thu, Jul 10 2008, 19:35 GMT
by Paul Kasriel

Northern Trust

Jobless Claims – Seasonal Factors Distort Underlying Fundamentals

Initial jobless claims fell 58,000 to 346,000 during the week ended July 5. The sharp drop reflects the shortened week due to the July 4 holiday and distortions arising from auto retool shutdowns in the summer. A good bet is 4-week moving averages of initial and continuing claims to evaluate the labor market. Moreover, economic data of the past six months suggests that firms have stopped hiring and robust demand for labor is unlikely to emerge at this stage of the business cycle. In addition, the Labor Department has indicated that a sharp jump in jobless claims, to account for the auto industry shutdowns, is likely to follow soon. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, rose 91,000 to 3.202 million. The insured unemployment rate moved up to 2.4% from 2.3% in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate has held at 2.4% in three out of the last five weeks. The noticeable decline in initial claims is a distortion and is not an indicator of a marked improvement in labor market conditions.

Bank of England: Caught Between Conflicting Risks

As expected, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.0% this morning, despite the fact that May’s annual rate of inflation hit 3.3%. This was the highest since the BoE won full independence over monetary policy in 1997, and caused BoE Governor King to have to write an open letter to Chancellor Darling last month explaining why CPI is more than one full percentage point over the Bank’s 2.0% target. But, as King pointed out, while inflation is likely to remain above target for some months yet, there is also a downside risk that the economy will slow sharply and pull CPI below target in two years. The past few days have certainly brought mounting evidence of a marked slowdown, with some analysts starting to whisper of the risk of recession.

King continues to argue that the recent jump in CPI is the result of soaring global food and fuel prices, that the jump is likely to be temporary, and that there is little evidence so far of second round effects, particularly not of inflation pressures driving wages markedly higher.

Meanwhile, there is mounting evidence of an increasingly-severe housing market correction. Today the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, Halifax, reported that house prices fell 2.0% on the month and 8.7% on the year in June – a sharper decline than at the worst point of the 1992 housing market crash. Mortgage rates are running at eight-year highs and lenders are demanding deposits at 25% of value. BoE data show mortgage approvals – a leading indicator for the market –down 28% in May to a third of the level seen a year ago. Although retail sales have so far held up, sliding consumer confidence doubtless will start to weigh on the retail sector over the coming months.

There is already evidence of a slowdown in the key services sector, and the manufacturing sector is looking particularly gloomy. Last week came the news that the CIPS manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ index dropped to 45.8 in June from 49.5 in May – the sharpest monthly fall since September 2001. All told, real GDP growth – which slowed to just 0.3% on the quarter in Q1 – may struggle to stay positive in Q2.

Caught firmly between the conflicting risks of higher inflation and a sharp economic slowdown, it’s no surprise that the MPC members left rates unchanged this month. The minutes of today’s meeting will be released July 23, and will likely show a split Committee. Meanwhile, key upcoming data releases include June CPI on July 15; May/June labor market data and May three-month average earnings on July 16; and the first estimate of Q2 GDP on July 21.

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Published on  Thu, Jul 10 2008, 19:42 GMT

Archive

• Jobless Claims – Is the Recession on its Last Legs?
  Published On Thu, Sep 4 2008, 21:10 GMT
• Comments on Mr. Marsden in The Wall Street Journal
  Published On Wed, Sep 3 2008, 21:32 GMT
• Factory Sector Has Been in Slump during the Past Year
  Published On Tue, Sep 2 2008, 23:37 GMT
• Consumer Spending: Strong Likelihood of Decline in Q3
  Published On Sun, Aug 31 2008, 23:49 GMT
• Q2 GDP Is History, Focus Should Be on the Future
  Published On Thu, Aug 28 2008, 22:40 GMT

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