GDP growth was greatly affected by the 2009 crisis, after which come back to the positive growth quickly, partly drive by strong investment in the 2010 world cup, but has not returned to previous growth levels, currently growing at 3% annual rate. Major economic sectors are industry and financial services which have recovered well. The industrial production returned to similar level of growth (maybe more) of before crisis. Now this sector is growing at 3% per annum, and showing that is the stronger sector of the economy. The worst sector after the crisis has been domestic consumption that haven’t come back to the growth rates as before. The relationship with the external sector is not the same like before too, in part because his commercial partners (Germany, United States, Canada or Japan) are not growing at the same rates as before.
The public finance are in a very well situation, are worst than before the crisis but his debt as percentage of GDP is around 35% (remember that in Spain is 68%) and continues with a positive budget balance. The most important problem of his economy are the high unemployment rates, now the 24% of the working population is in unemployed (a similar rate of Spain), and the drop of interest rates (is down since 2009, from 12% to 5%) don’t improve the situation and increases the inequality. The outlook for the South Africa economy is uncertain, it have strengths like the health of the public finances, but the inequality and the unemployment are problems that have to be resolve for to stabilize the grow.
Technically we see like the Rand has gone depreciating while his trade balance have been worsening. From half of 2.011, where done a double bottom, the currency have gone making a triangle wich broke the last week, beating the zone of resistance of 8,6000 ZAR/USD. This movement provides a target of 9,6500 ZAR/USD. If the trade balance continue increasing the negative balance, well by reducing exportations or increasing the importations we would see an important depreciation of the Rand versus Dollar. By contrast, the recuperation of him trade balance or great change to better of the economy we could see a break uptrend and see an appreciation for the 7,5000 ZAR/USD, but before would have to lose the support of 8,6000 ZAR/USD and break the trend.