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Asia Market Update

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JPY crosses higher as Asian stocks rally

Thu, May 29 2008, 04:26 GMT
by Eben Esterhuizen

TradeTheNews.com

- Forex: The JPY crosses remained bid for most of the Asian morning, after AUD/JPY broke past key technical resistance at 100.50 and EUR/JPY managed to move above 164.00. For USD/JPY, traders heard chatter that a 105.50 option barrier rolled off yesterday. EUR/USD could not break above 1.5660 (the 55 day MA), while GBP/USD failed to test 1.9830, a decent resistance level. Currency markets showed little reaction to a rumor that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-ll, had been assassinated, and several South Korean officials dismissed the rumor.

- Capex data suggests downside risks for Aussie GDP data to be released next week: (AU Q1 PRIVATE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE: -2.5% V 3.0% expected, prior revised to 7.3% from 5.1%) The data showed that Australian firms are revising up already very strong spending plans for 2008/09, promising to support the economy in the future. "Spending plans are pretty upbeat despite rate hikes, building cost pressures and a bit of a softer economy," said Su-Lin Ong at RBC. "That is quite encouraging," she said. AUD/USD dipped in knee-jerk selling after the data, with the pair currently trading below hourly support at 0.9610, with the daily pivot seen at 0.9605.

- Conference Board says Australian leading index declined again in March, the third consecutive monthly decline: (AU) MARCH CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX: -0.4 v -0.3% prior%; Coincident: +0.1% v 0.1% prior) Building approvals, share prices and the yield spread continued to make large negative contributions to the index, more than offsetting a large positive contribution from real money supply. The six-month growth rate in the leading index stands at 0.8 percent (about a 1.5 percent annual rate) during the six-month span through March, down from 2.7 percent (a 5.5 percent annual rate) from June to December 2007. In addition, the strengths among its components have only been slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.

- Japan's retail sales rise y/y for the ninth straight month: (JP APRIL RETAIL TRADE YOY: 0.1% V 0.5% expected, 1.0% prior; MOM: -0.1% V 0.0% expected, 0.4% prior; APRIL LARGE RETAILERS' SALES: -2.2% V -1.3% expected, 0.2% prior) Analysts said the slower pace of increase in retail sales reflects declining buying power of Japanese households, confirming the Bank of Japan's view that the economic outlook is skewed toward the downside. The data failed to change the view that the Bank of Japan will leave rates on hold for now.

- The Fed's Fisher, a voting member and known hawk, warned that the Fed will not let inflation get out of control. "If inflationary developments and, more important, inflationary expectations, continue to worsen, I would expect a change of course to occur sooner rather than later, even in the face of an anemic economic scenario," he said. Fisher warned that the long-term fiscal situation of the U.S. government "could be unimaginably more devastating to our economic prosperity than the sub-prime debacle and the recent debauching of credit markets." He added that the "dark and dirty secret about deficits - especially when they careen out of control - is that they create political pressure on central bankers to adopt looser monetary policy down the road."

- Equities: At 0:18 EDT Japan's Nikkei is +2.54%, the S&P/ASX200 is +1.17%, South Korea's KOSPI is +1.95%, and the Shanghai Composite index is -0.33%. The S&P500 futures contract lost -0.14% since the U.S. close, last trading at 1,389.50. The Nikkei rallied after Wall Street ended Wednesday on a positive note, with the weakening JPY providing support to exporters. Japanese property developers, tech companies, exporters, retailers and financials generally traded higher. Resource companies lifted the S&P/ASX200, while banks traded mixed. Shares of Centro Properties traded sharply higher on reports that the company may sell A$1.2B of U.S. shopping mall assets, which would improve the company's liquidity position. Santos, a major energy company, is trading higher by more than 9.0% after selling a 40% stake in the Gladstone LNG project for $2.5B. Chinese equities are marginally lower on declines in shares in large-caps, while technology shares helped to lift the Kospi.

- Commodities: Nymex crude oil prices lost -0.49% between 18:00 EDT and 0:16 EDT, last trading at $130.39/bbl. Spot gold traded lower by -0.17%, last trading at $903.50/oz.

Published on  Thu, May 29 2008, 04:28 GMT