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Asia Market Update

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Asian stocks rally on view that Fed is in control

Wed, Oct 10 2007, 03:11 GMT
by Trade The News Staff

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- Forex: What a difference a day makes. The USD might have had a small correction over the last few sessions, but markets have now come to the consensus that the USD has gotten ahead of itself. Whenever risk appetite improves, investors jump to sell the USD. The Fed's Poole sounded relaxed about the USD's depreciation, adding weight to the idea that the Fed isn't too worried about the eroding yield support for the USD. EUR/USD had little upside during the Asian session, with reports of EUR/USD selling interest between 1.4130/50. Traders said that an American bank was selling the NZD at the start of the Asian session, with some chatter of large NZD-uridashi redemptions today. AUD/USD hovered around 0.89 for most of the session while GBP/USD couldn't break resistance at 2.0405. Between 17:00 ET and 23:02 ET: USD little changed against European majors, AUD/USD -0.25%, NZD/USD -0.36%, GBP/JPY +0.10%, AUD/CHF -0.23%, USD/KRW -0.15%, USD/CAD +0.09%

- Singapore announces tighter monetary policy, surprises market: The Singapore central bank has slightly increased the slope of its currency band. The implication here is that the SGD can appreciate further against the USD. The consensus seems to be that the increase of the slope in the policy band is to accommodate higher inflation. The Singapore central bank raised its 2007 and 2008 inflation forecasts, projecting their 2007 GDP at the upper end of 7%-8% band. The SGD gained 0.34% against the USD between 17:00 ET and 23:04 ET.

- Aussie consumers worried about family finances: (AU Oct Westpac Consumer Confidence: -0.3% v +4.2% prior; Survey was conducted in the week after the RBA kept rates on hold for the month) WestPac pointed out that their index remains 4.5% below levels seen just before the last RBA rate hike, with consumer sentiment also being hurt by rising mortgage and rent costs. The largest drop came in family finances compared with a year ago, where the index fell by 4.1% in October.

- Equities: At 22:43 ET the Nikkei is higher by +0.34%, tracking the record gains on Wall Street as markets take the view that the Fed has things under control. However, the upside for Japanese stocks was limited, with sentiment soured by profit warnings from Alcoa, International Paper and Chevron after the U.S. close. In Sydney the benchmark ASX index is higher by +063%, rising to a new record high (above 6,700). The weakening USD boosted commodities, in turn lifting the Aussie miners. An improved outlook for the U.S. economy inspired South Korean investors to pick up exporters, sending the Kospi higher by more than +1.0%. China's benchmark index flirted with a new intraday record high as financials rallied. Few analysts expect the Peoples Bank of China to hike rates around the Communist Party's Congress, which begins on Monday, further supporting equity gains in Shanghai.

- Commodities: In the absence of other news, commodities remain focused on the low level of the USD. Crude oil continues to hover around $80/bbl ahead of Thursday's inventory data. Spot gold gained +0.22% between 18:00 ET and 23:00 ET, last quoted at $744.60/oz. Shanghai copper is little changed, despite earlier gains in the LME contract.

(by Eben Esterhuizen and Gavin Pierce)


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