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Asia Market Update

BoJ leave rates unchanged, as expected

Thu, Aug 23 2007, 04:03 GMT
by Trade The News Staff

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- The BoJ voted 8-1 to leave rates unchanged, with Mizuno being the only member voting for a rate hike. This was the 2nd consecutive meeting the BoJ vote was split, and focus now shifts to BoJ governor Fukui's press conference, scheduled for 2:30 ET. Markets will watch what Fukui has to say about the current market volatility. If he says a rate hike was delayed due to market turmoil, traders may think that there is still a possibility for a rate rise in September. But if he cites risks to the real economy, the BOJ could wait for the Tankan and may need to change its economic scenario in its outlook report in October. So there is a risk that a rate hike may be delayed to as late as November.

- Carry traders gain confidence as equities rally: Today's treasuries trading shows that risk appetite may be making a comeback, with the 10-year Treasury note forming a bearish double-top formation at the contract high of 109-09+ (just above the Aug. 16 high). News that Bank of America will invest $2B in Countrywide (15.9% of Countrywide's market cap) also boosted risk appetite, fueling the carry trade. The NZD/USD moved above 0.71 and AUD/USD is back above 0.81. The USD is also coming under pressure with the renewed risk appetite, with EUR/USD stalling near key resistance at 1.3550/60. Between 17:00 ET and 23:45 ET: AUD/JPY +1.48%, NZD/JPY +2.22%, NZD/USD +1.71%, AUD/CHF +0.93%, EUR/JPY +0.60%, USD/JPY +0.48% (but unable to break 116.00)

- Equities: Asian equities are higher across the board after it was disclosed that Bank America would invest $2B in US mortgage lender Countrywide. At 23:57 ET, the Nikkei is higher by 2.52%, hovering around 16,300 on gains in shares of banks and exporters. The ASX is higher by 2.54% on gains in shares of BHP (strong earnings) and Macquarie Bank (tracking gains in U.S. financials). In China, the Shanghai Composite index rose above the 5,000 level as new mutual funds enter the market.

- Commodities: Crude oil gained 28c between 18:00 ET and 0:00 ET, higher on bargain hunting. During the U.S. session it was reported that weekly refinery utilization rates rose by 91.6% v 92.1%e. Spot gold is higher by 0.37%, tracking the weakness in the USD. Shanghai Copper is higher by more than 2%, tracking the LME contract.


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