FXstreet.com

2009 Annual Outlook

2

0

When Will This Horror Show Come to an End?

Wed, Dec 10 2008, 15:03 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC


Table of Contents Executive

Summary.............3

The Credit Markets: From Boom to Ka-Boom............5

Momentum Shift: The Fundamentals...............5

Credit in the New Era: Implications for Growth..............6

Housing: The Weakest Link............7

The Vicious Cycle............................7

Unusual Breadth...................8

The Party is Over for the U.S. Consumer...................10

This Cycle Will be Different........................10

Retrenchment in Consumer Spending...................11

Policy Implications of a New Administration.......................12

Evaluating the Policy Initiatives.........................12

Implications of the Incoming Administration...............13

Deepest Global Recession Since Early 1980s..................14

Outlook for the Dollar............................14

Implications for U.S. Net Exports.............16

Forecast Tables.................18

chart 5

Executive Summary

The 2008 economic story could have been written and directed by a Hollywood horror master. Watching the developments in financial markets this year was like squinting through closed fingers during the iconic shower scene in Alfred Hitchcock’s 1960 thriller, Psycho. You could almost hear the soundtrack of screeching violins during televised financial news, and this time it was your assets that were going down the drain.

Since the credit bubble burst in August 2007, banks and other lenders have grown increasingly more restrictive in their lending practices. As a result, our outlook is framed by the character of America’s credit cycle, which will dictate the pace and nature of the recovery. The pattern of the credit cycle and its focus on risk avoidance dictates a de-leveraging of the American financial system on both the demand and supply sides. On the demand side, consumers must strengthen their balance sheets by paying down debt, boosting savings and rebuilding equity in their homes. All of this will require the consumer to reduce spending. On the supply side, the banking system must rebuild its capital base, which means it must sell stock and restrain lending.

One of the early victims of the credit crunch was the housing market as the lack of available credit made it tougher for potential homebuyers and builders to qualify for new loans. This put downward pressure on housing prices. This caused lending standards to tighten further, making it tougher still for potential buyers to qualify. This vicious cycle is still playing out as home values are falling across the country and the pool of qualified potential homebuyers is growing smaller.

New home construction is likely to fall further. Rising unemployment, plunging stock prices and tight credit conditions are hardly a formula for increased home sales. These days, one gets the feeling that potential homebuyers would be less afraid staying at the Bates Motel than they are buying a new home. Existing home sales will also likely decline, as deteriorating economic conditions make it tougher for investors to buy foreclosed homes and rent or improve them for resale. Sales of both new and existing homes should bottom in early summer and home construction is expected to bottom in the first half of next year. Home prices should find a floor sometime between late 2009 and early 2010, with the most challenged markets seeing prices begin to stabilize near the end of that period. Foreclosures will not likely top out until 2010. While housing may bottom in the next year or so, the recovery will be agonizingly slow.

The last recession in 2001 was characterized by steady consumer spending supported by rising home prices and easy credit. This cycle, however, will be different as de-leveraging compels strapped consumers to repair their balance sheets. Real personal consumption expenditures tumbled at nearly a four percent annual rate in the third quarter, the largest decline since 1980. We look for further retrenchment over the next few quarters. Consumers have turned exceptionally cautious in light of the recent spike in the unemployment rate and abrupt tightening in credit. Significant declines in house and equity prices this year have eroded household wealth, which will also weigh on consumer spending. In many ways consumers are like the counselors at Camp Crystal Lake in Friday the 13th; the fun has stopped, the horror has started, and no matter where you try to hide, the axes keep falling. Consumers are not the only ones feeling rattled. Businesses will likely tighten spending by continuing to pare back fixed investment spending and by drawing down inventories significantly, which will also depress growth over the next few quarters.

In an effort to revive the ailing economy, various policy measures will be considered. The incoming Obama administration is likely to enact a second stimulus program, which will provide a boost to growth, at least in the short run. However, unintended consequences of the policy mix could offset much of the stimulus. Higher taxes on dividends and capital gains as well as increased income taxes for higher-income individuals could provide a disincentive to work. A more interventionist government could alter private risk/reward calculations, which could be negative for long-run growth prospects. What little economic growth we had in 2008 was made possible by strong global growth.

Indeed, net exports have helped to prop up U.S. GDP growth over the past few quarters despite weakness in domestic demand. However, that support is in the process of winding down. Every major foreign economy is either already in recession or about to slip into one, due in large part to the pernicious effects of the global credit crunch. Economic growth in the developing world has also slowed this year. Global GDP will expand only one percent or so in 2009, the slowest year for global growth since 1982. We project that the dollar will trend modestly higher against most major currencies in the coming year as the U.S. current account deficit continues to shrink and foreign central banks cut rates sharply.

In sum, further declines in consumer spending, business fixed investment spending and residential construction translate into continued contraction in real economic activity. By the time the economy hits bottom in the middle of 2009, real GDP will probably have contracted nearly three percent, the worst downturn since 1981-82. Underlying our forecast is the assumption that policymakers will take the necessary steps to prevent the global financial system from locking up again. Should that assumption prove overly optimistic, global economic growth would end up even weaker than our already bleak outlook projects.

After the year we just finished, you might feel like covering your eyes rather than looking at what might be lurking ahead. In this outlook, we explore how the unprecedented financial developments of the past year will unfold over the next 12 months. The villains in this horror flick are the credit crunch, poor public policy decisions and diminishing foreign trade. At the risk of spoiling the ending to this movie, the good news is that we are going through some of the scariest parts right now; by the end of 2009, economic growth should return.

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC  | P.O. Box 025383 Miami, FL 33102-5383
https://www.wellsfargo.com/ | sam.bullard@wachovia.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.

Related reports

Week in Focus - Another one bites the dust… by RANsquawk
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 09:20 GMT

Today's Trading Signals by Financial Trend Analysis
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 08:42 GMT

Weekly Commodity Update - Gold shines despite signs of risk fatigue by Saxo Bank
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 08:12 GMT

Start the Day - Japanese Labour and Thanksgiving holiday today by Mizuho Corporate Bank
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 07:25 GMT

Daily Technical Analysis - EUR: Attempt longs at 1.4930; stop below 1.4800 by Mizuho Corporate Bank
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 07:13 GMT

indicator, crisis, us, recession, highlighted

View All

Related content


Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!


ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
FOREX.com
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
Interbank FX, LLC
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
Saxo Bank A/S
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
Alpari (US), LLC
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account

GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES!   Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program

Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.