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Hi everybody! During the ITC 2009 we have asked to some of our speakers to make their forecasts on EURUSD. This is what they have said about it:
> Rob Booker expects the EURUSD to fall 0.1500 to reach the 1.3500 level in the next months
> Ashraf Laidi is very bullish on the pair, considering we will touch 1.5700 level and higher by the end of the year
> James Chen is very bullish too, expecting to make new highs in the EURUSD
> Kim Cramer Larsson probably is the more bullish of the four speakers, pointing out a a target of 1.6000 for the pair in the next months, and a long term target at 1.7500
Hmmm three bullish and one bearish, so it looks like EUR should make a big rally . OK, now want to make your own forecast? Do you agree with the experts or they are just wrong? Vote in the poll attached to this message, share with us your analysis and see if you can do it better than our speakers
We will update this thread regularly so we can compare the forecasts with what is actually happening in the currency market.
Great forecasts from the 4 speakers. Personally Ashraf''s view sounds reasonable for me
Gold, oil and commoditiy pairs seems have more potential to go up...
High unemployment rate in the USA,,, it is now 9.8% it is still risk as it's increasing,,,
Probably Fed would hike the rate in the 2nd quarter. what do you think guys??
I'm affraid Kim Cramer Larsson could be right and EUR/USD could go all the way up to 1.70 or 1.75 as he predicts. I do not see the EUR/USD reaching those levels in a 6 months period as he predicts, but I'm not a technical analyst so my vision is more biased towards macroeconomics.
I'm truly concerned by the tons of liquidity added into the system by the FED. If they do not take this liquidity out of the system at the right time and the right pace, the consequences could be devastating for the USD.
As removing this liquidity from the system too early could bring the US back to recession - and maybe depression? - I expect the FED to be so cautious that the liquidity removing pace will be too slow. That should have a big impact in driving down the USD.
I hope I'm wrong... I was a quiet bad student at the economics university even though I got the degree
Sorry Francesc not agree, I think Rob is right (as usually). Have you seen how EURUSD has turned at 1.5000??? If it finally breaks 1.4800 level, it will confirm a bullish trendline breakout so I think we're going to come back to at least 1.4500 in the short term.
Everybody see:
Credits, jobs, consume... all shrinking.
East countries not yet ready for internal consumers, where is the middle class?
Western countries loosing middle class like water falling in a cascade.
Assets rising prices because of pure speculation that everybody "will" consume again?
Consume? So why all the bad credits all-round the world are increasing?
Remember Corporations are like us: Don't admit the losing positions until there’s no more to hang up... only showing the good ones... Always need one with the courage to be the first.
So when all this work ultimately is dollar that wins. Remember:
Dollar will be, some day, no more the reference but until then, every dollar strength is an opportunity to the BIG sharks exchange dollar for other currencies. Example to you to think:
- How can a country like China reduce its dependency from the dollar without losing to much of its richness?
I agree Oriencio, also fundamentals and market sentiment point to the same place: everybody, including media, thought that breaking slightly above 1.5000 was a bullish signal and that we would see 1.6000 in the next weeks. That's why EURUSD is 3 figures below 1.5000 today.
BTW, this question is nice starting point to think about... The answer seems implicit to me
Quote:
How can a country like China reduce its dependency from the dollar without losing to much of its richness?
Just one month away from the end of this quarter and it looks like the EURUSD is going to finish inside the 1.4820 - 1.5000 range. Were all the experts wrong?
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ITC 2009 EURUSD Forecasts
. OK, now want to make your own forecast? Do you agree with the experts or they are just wrong? Vote in the poll attached to this message, share with us your analysis and see if you can do it better than our speakers 
Rob Booker definitly
