ECB Policy Meeting

[FXDementor]

On Thursday, the ECB announces rates. Will Trichet unveil his plan this time??? Where is the EU Monetary Policy heading to??? Vote the poll and share your opinion.

Regards,
FXD

[FRiverola]

I do not expect ECB will raise rates again soon.

I expect that and I keep my fingers crossed that ECB will listen to me as the mortatge I´ve got on the new office we moved to six months ago is quite big so any increase in rates it is a big quick in my butt

I recommend you this interesting reading about ECB's rate call.


Francesc

[FRiverola]

Btw, on thursday we will have a very interesting free webinar about the ECB with Joseph Trevisani, head of research at FXSolutions

Webinar of the Week
ECB Policy in 2007
Expert: Joseph Trevisani
Start: Thu, Feb 8 2007, 14:00 GMT

To register, go to: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/session...d-cc670cee4db3

[FXDementor]

Francesc, maybe ECB will take care of our mortgages, I sent an email to Trichet, .

I think we should pay special attention to Trichet speech at 14.30 h. CET (13.30 h. GMT, 08.30 h. EST). As Aurelio Maccario, UniCredito's economist, has said:

"We expect Trichet to ratify a March hike with the well-known reference to 'strong vigilance,' accompanied by no pre-commitment to further moves,"

"Each of the last six times Trichet used the word vigilance, a rate increase was handed down the next month."

"Even though markets have scaled back rate expectations after recent press speculations pointing to a prolonged pause at 3.75 percent, we remain confident that the ECB will move in the second quarter and rates will hit 4 percent in June"

So the key is in the speech and not in the rates announcement, which is fully discounted by the markets. We should pay attention to the magic word: vigilance.

Another fact to take into account is that since the last increase, French politicians have criticized ECB for letting the euro rise by nearly 15 percent in value against the U.S. dollar, an increase that could make the country's exports more expensive, particularly to the United States. Also the German economy recovery may have some impact in the ECB decision.

Regards,
FXD

[FXDementor]

ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected, but in his speech, Trichet has said that the European Central Bank has to exercise "strong vigilance" against potential risks to price stability in the medium term, making very likely that ECB will raise interest rates a further 25 basis points at the March meeting.

Nothing new under the sun...


Regards,
FXD