Elliott charts with Grega H.

[EWtrader]

Hello traders my name is Grega Horvat and make the elliot wave analyses for the LFB.

In this thread I will post one pair each day with the comentaries and the charts.
If you would like to receive more pairs daily in the report, then please contact me on trader@trading-fx.com

My EW page at the LFB
https://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=35084

[EWtrader]

Hello Elliott Wave traders.

GOLD

We were recently talking about possible gold lows on Friday, if the dollar strength would be able to continue. Well, this one could be very tricky right now, especially as we have already seen near-term dollar highs on Monday against the major currencies. Euro made the fifth wave on the downside, aussie also, and swissy on the upside. Temporary dollar bulls could be looking to switch sides it seems, and this is the reason why we labeled possible waves I and II or A and B on the chart below. It is better to stay away on this one for some time, to see how market reacts to this critical period of trade; above the trend-line and below the 838.00 resistance. Any break to the upside should lead us much higher; in that case 838.00 should react as a support in the future, in a ‘resistance turns to support’ move. Traders should also pay their attention to the black, lower trend-line; any move below it could lead to new lows very fast. That is why we are saying to let this one play out; there is enough room either way to wait for market momentum and confirmation.




Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.

e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com

[EWtrader]

Hello Elliott Wave traders.

Gold went higher yesterday, getting above $840 before quickly returning to $825 support. There were many overlaps in the last few days, so no clear trend at all is seen. Small profits are the winners here. There is also something similar on the aussie chart; prices just hit the trend line mentioned yesterday. We can expect some buyers in this area with stops below the trend line (look to the charts posted from yesterday).
For today we prepared two possible wave counts on the dollar index chart, which should be the right one to look at to find the right way on some major pair moves. We have also included the wave count on cable which is showing us possible bottom, and higher prices in the next few trading days.

USDX

Below is our first triangle wave count, where the sub-waves are 3-3-3-3-3. This count is valid if the prices continue to new highs in the next week or two. On the chart we labeled the first zig-zag in wave A and also in wave B, which has ended above the wave three high. In this case will this be running triangle. We labeled the current live structure with red square. If we are on the right track, then we should see prices around the lower trend line probably in the next week. Price should not move lower off wave A (76.00), otherwise it will this wave count be invalidated. For this case we made another wave count.

Basic chart


Live chart


Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.

e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com

[EWtrader]

Hello Elliott Wave traders.

OIL

We did not complicate the wave count on this chart; we are just looking for the bottom of the correction in red wave 4. The most interesting thing on this one is the significant resistance around $121 per barrel. Prices bounced from it several times recently; this resistance could be the key for a move lower in this, or next week if fundamentals align. Right now we a have really triangle in process which should make another move up to test resistance again.

The short targets are sitting on the black weekly trend line support, which held prices since the start of 2007. Traders that are still waiting on the reversal should pay their attention to another move up to the 120.00 resistance, which could be good set-up for move lower. Otherwise they should wait on a break through the lower blue trend-line before they get involved. As you know, these are just couple of technical reasons for possible move in the next few days or weeks. Do not forget that Hurricane Gustav could also push Oil prices higher in the next few days as it continues to disrupt U.S. refining.




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Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.

e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com

[EWtrader]

USD/JPY

This pair has been in consolidation over the last two weeks. Prices tested the 300 day moving average several times in the last week and bounced lower on Friday after the stronger yen moves. If the double zig-zag is not over yet, then we should see another move to new highs to make this (Y) complete. In this case we should be in the A)-B)-C) correction of the red wave B right now. It looks as though prices may trade lower in the near future; we are talking about the 50% retrace of wave A, which is sitting on the lower support line of the bull channel around 107.00. We can expect some traders with the positions against this trend line, to try push the dollar back up buoyed by the positive equity moves that Europe has put on the U.S. futures outlook. The stochastic indicator is also showing a possible move in to the “over-bought” on that read area before market will move sustainably higher again.



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Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.

e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com

[EWtrader]

USD/CAD

We are still following this pair, especially today when we have the Interest Rate statement from Canada. Traders should pay attention on this info before they make any moves on the market. We have the one hour Canadian chart, with the current prices in wave v) after the triangle in the fourth wave. We might expect prices up in the next few hours, around the Fibonacci resistances at 38.2%. The market could trade lower from here if the BOC decision indicates that the economy is robust enough for a higher move on rates over the next quarter. The RSI is also signaling for possible moves lower in the future, so any good numbers for Canada could bring us below the temporary trend line support, which could be also the signal to sell U.S dollars. That however is against the near-term trend, and against forex and oil market momentum right now.





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Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.

e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com

[EWtrader]

Usd/Cad Updates from the BOC rate decision

We have the updated picture from yesterday. BOC rate decision made stronger Canadian dollar and pushed prices down through the 1.0610 support. The current prices are threatening the 61.8% Fibonacci support of the last five waves up around 1.0562. Right now the market could be trading somewhere on the end of the black wave i and then further back up in to the correction of wave ii. Short traders should closed their positions here and wait on a new opportunity before they make any new move. We could see a three wave correction move up in to the resistance level around 1.0660, which could be nice chance to jump short again, if the tomorrows Payroll numbers will be poor.




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Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.

e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com

[EWtrader]

Aud/Usd A Turning Point?

Prices on this pair are trading in a very critical support area right now. The market is threatening some strong Fibonacci levels just below 0.8200 so traders are expecting the turning point here especially because of this two year long support trend line. On this pair, we have very similar situation as on the Eur/Usd, we should pay close attention on today’s closed weekly candle. If the prices after today’s trading hours will be above the 0.8200 level then we can expect a huge bounce in the coming weeks. As you know this pair is also highly correlated with the commodities, so in this case we can also expect a bounce on the Oil.



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Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.

e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com

[EWtrader]

U.S. $ index

Here we have the updated chart from Friday, when we discussed the possible bounce lower this week. Prices are already down in the same area as previous wave IV is, around 76.00 levels. Short-term traders should already have booked their profits in this zone, or trailed stops lower to protect gains. The market can easily make a small bounce to the upside from the current prices, especially after the touching the 50% retracement Fibonacci zone. If a bounce in this area is the case, then we can expect prices to move up into the resistance zone around 77.25. This possible move will also have an impact on some other currency pairs; on the Usd/Cad for example.



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Contact Grega and the Elliott Wave team and subscribe to the daily Elliott Wave analysis service via email. Each week we track the movements of a different pairs and update as the daily momentum unfolds, we then analyze the pairs and commodities each day that we see as being impacted the most by current market mechanics.

e-mail: trader@trading-fx.com

[EWtrader]

Read the information for a Free weekly Elliott wave service lower


EUR/USD

Market made an amazing bounce yesterday from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level down in to the current wave v) of the black iii). Interestingly, the market is still pushing it down very strongly in the last hour or two, but the prices should slow down sooner or alter as the support area is shown on the chart. We are talking about the yearly 1.3882low, which has already been broken for a few pips. If this one will not hold, then we can expect prices a little bit lower, somewhere at 1.3830; where you will notice the Fibonacci support area that we already discussed yesterday. Traders should already be out with from the short positions or at least trailed stops lower; just above the 1.3882 for the case if this one reacts as a resistance for the move below 1.3800. From the Elliott wave view we should see a pullback in black wave iv in the near term, especially if we consider that the extension wave iii could be completed very fast. Simple zig-zag move may be the case.

eur-usd6.jpg


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