|
Welcome to the FXstreet.com Forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact contact us.
|
| Fundamental Analysis The place to analyze the macroeconomic news. |
 |
|
Oct 28, 2009, 19:31
|
#41
|
|
Rookie
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 93
|
Inflation in Germany could be back as it reports its estimate for CPI. Although throughout much of the euro zone retail sales are low, unemployment is high, home sales are weak and banks are reluctant to lend, Germany is experiencing better times. German unemployment has stabilized and corporate confidence is improving. With Germany being the largest economy in the euro zone, an increase in inflation there or expectations for an increase in inflation could be thoughts about an increase in rates to the forefront sooner rather than later.
|
|
|
|
Oct 29, 2009, 14:02
|
#42
|
|
Newbie
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3
|
same thing happened today with positive and better than expected US GDP data.
USD/CHF down
EUR/USD up
"The dollar declined versus major rivals Thursday after the U.S. reported that its economy returned to growth in the third quarter, boosting stocks and reducing the appeal of the relative safety of the greenback." FXSTREET
My question is why did the USD/JPY go up at the same time? Is this because JPY is also a safe haven currency and was probably unwinding at the same time as USD?
Any thoughts?
Anyone know if FXSTREET makes recordings available of the live webinars? I'd like to watch the one from today...
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/session...b-d1580037ac60
Last edited by rjbowman; Oct 29, 2009 at 14:06.
|
|
|
|
|
Oct 30, 2009, 00:57
|
#43
|
|
Rookie
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 93
|
Interesting facts from today’s GDP report:
Fully 2.2 percentage points of the third quarter's 3.5% growth figure related to vehicle purchases and residential construction, both juiced by government support. Federal spending added 0.6%. What’s going to happen when all the stimulus spending is taken away? It won’t be good for the US economy and in that case the dollar will rally. Starting to worry about the longevity of the long euro trade.
|
|
|
|
|
Oct 30, 2009, 18:18
|
#44
|
|
Rookie
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 93
|
With interest rates so low investors have been using the dollar as a funding currency for riskier investments. The bearish case against the dollar is that interest rates are so low and that the US will increase interest rates far after other major countries. The bullish case for the dollar is that the US and global economy is still not out of the woods and will experience further pain and declines in GDP. It is starting to look as if the US equity rally has gone too far too fast – over 80% of S&P companies having reported have beaten earnings by the S&P is down from its highs during this period. With the decline in the S&P, foreign exchange investors are becoming increasingly worried about risk and are starting to move back into the dollar. I’ve taken off my long euro vs. the dollar trade. Waiting for further data points until I go long the dollar against the euro.
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 2, 2009, 16:21
|
#45
|
|
Rookie
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 44
|
More good news for the US economy today, and the AUDUSD and EURUSD had a nice hourly bear candle...
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 4, 2009, 20:44
|
#46
|
|
Newbie
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5
|
Well I suspect that it will trade sideways until Friday's NFP, because even though today's decision gives the bulls some power, the NFP numbers, if bad, will cause risk aversion and dollar advances.
__________________
"People who buy headlines eventually end up selling newspapers."
fxsignalstb.blogspot.com
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 5, 2009, 14:51
|
#47
|
|
Rookie
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 50
|
it seems that until the us interest rate will stay low, investors will escape to higher yielding investments...
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 8, 2009, 16:17
|
#48
|
|
Newbie
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5
|
Opposing forces at work here. We have high unemployment raising risk aversion (good for $$) but it also reinforces that low rates will stay for a while (good for EUR). Therefore today's news is not moving it either way. Let's wait for next week, no direction defined today.
__________________
__________________
"People who buy headlines eventually end up selling newspapers."
fxsignalstb.blogspot.com
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 8, 2009, 16:56
|
#49
|
|
Rookie
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 93
|
Cit is saying that the euro will climb relative to the dollar as it is finding support at its 55-day moving average. Recent declines in the euro stalled Nov. 3 at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from its Oct. 2 low of $1.4481 to its Oct 26 high of $1.5063. The euro may now gain to $1.5064 with a firm break of that level creating an opportunity up to $1.5285.
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 10, 2009, 14:33
|
#50
|
|
Rookie
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 50
|
the usd continues going bearish as the rumors for lowering us interest rate increase, plus the G20 meeting!
coming this week the release about the population optimism, and the fed s speech.
the eur/usd -> coming back to 1.50?
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
日本語
Español
中文
