Forex Analytics from PoltekFX

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USD
USD has strengthened after the FOMC had made decision to lower federal fund rate by 0.75 bps. In general, the market will take into accounting this reduction in advance, that’s why on the threshold of its announcement many people chose to fix position.
This decrease is very useful for market participants who will take advantage of the temporary strengthening of USD for its sale.
As it is mentioned above, the FOMC cut discount rate by 0.75%. 8 members of the committee voted for this decision. 2 members voted for a decrease of 0.5% (Fisher and Plosser).
Commenting on the decision the representatives of the FOMC acknowledged that economic activity has "weakened further":
- the prospects for the economy weakened further
- the market is still "under considerable stress"
- inflation is still elevated
- downside risks to growth remain
- Fed will act in a timely manner as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability
- Deepening housing contraction will weigh on the economic growth.
The president of the USA George W. Bush said: "We will continue to act, if this situation will require it. The unemployment level remains relatively low, but looking ahead long term everything will be all right. "
It is expected that at the Asian session or on Wednesday at the European one there will be turn out after which USD is under pressure again.
Today the US is absent from any significant scheduled news events, but for traders doing commodity futures trading the interest will be provided with data on the stocks of oil products, which are published at 18:30.

the source: http://blog.poltekfx.com

[FXinvestorss]

EUR
EUR/USD is going down after the announcement of the decision to reduce the discount rate. Reduction of pair was caused by fixation of long positions, but the price is expected to return very soon, and we will see continuation of ascending trend.
Intermediate buying of EUR | USD will start from the support line of ascending trend at around 1.56 (see chart). In the case of the further reduction the buying will increase approaching to 1.54. Counting in favor of further growth there are Bush's speech which was somewhat disturbing, as well as low inflation that allow the United States to lower discount rate to 1%.
On Wednesday Construction production as well as the trade balance on European economy will be published. The latter will be of interest because growth of EUR could affect the export of goods from the euro zone.

the source of info:http//blog.poltekfx.com

[FXinvestorss]

GBP
GBP | USD is strengthening against the background of growing inflationary pressures in Britain, which do not allow BoE MPC to lower discount rates by the paces they want to sustain growth.
Nevertheless, GBR is much weaker than EUR, so the growth of pair can be seen as a good opportunity for its sale.
On Wednesday there will be the publication of the BoE meeting minutes, which is expected that discount rates will be unchangeable. In addition statistical news will be published, but it is not of such importance.


the source: http://blog.poltekfx.com

[FXinvestorss]

USD
The dollar continues to strengthen third day in a row. However, this consolidation is correction rather than turnout. After lowering the discount rate to 2.25% in the United States and Bush's statements on the maintenance of economic growth, another lowering rate is expected to happen at the next meeting.
Inflationary data show that the United States still have the possibility of lowering discount rate, but in the future because of rescue of the growth’s rate, the country will have hyper inflation, the rate of which can grow to double meanings, and it will maintain USD in the medium term .
Today the data on USA will be released, among of which Leading Indicator and Index of business activity by data of the Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Phila Fed Survey are of great interest. Data will show the prospects of American economy.

EUR
The European economy is waiting for statistics on Service PMI and Manufacturing PMI. It is expected that the data will not have a strong influence, but it is the most important data of this week from the EU. In addition, on Friday there will no statistical data as most countries will celebrate Holy Friday.
Before the opening of European session, EURUSD is trying to overcome 1.56 support level. If the price can break this level, it is possible that the price fall in the area of 1.54 marks. Rebound from this level to upside can cause resumption of pair growth to the absolute maximum and above.


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[FXinvestorss]

GBP
GBP | USD is testing 1.9870 the area of the first intermediate support (closing of a second three-year period), which is located below the stop order. Breaking of this level will open the way to1.94 support level (closing of five-year period.) Area between the two levels is of great interest to participators as in the case of reducing prices below the second level there is a probability of further pair reducing and it can continue to decline for several years when the price doesn’t get back to the current position.

continuation is here: http://blog.poltekfx.com

[FXinvestorss]

21.03.2008

the source:http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=51&forex=1


USD

USD has completed the consolidation on Thursday (which is a technical correction) after a long decline. However, despite long decline and the high rate of other currencies against the dollar, it is expected that USD will continue to decline for some time. Inflationary data in the United States remains modest, which allow the discount rate cut to 2% as minimum for the maintenance of growth, but in the future this step will cause hyper-inflation, for deterrence of whitch it will be necessary to raise rates quickly up to 10%.
For financial markets today is not of interest, as most of the countries celebrate Good Friday, which will result in lack of news.

JPY

USD | JPY is traded with a slight increase, which is a technical correction after a long decline. It is possible that in the morning growth of pair will continue because of low volume of trading and lack of holidays in many countries.
Technical analysis shows that after a long time the price can grow up to 111.80 (50% of the downward movement), after that the decline will resume. But America should stop lowering interest rates for such a strong growth. Examining the fundamental analysis in the United States a few more downwards are possible, so this growth is not expected soon.
If we consider this correction of the pair as a temporary and expect further decline, taking into account the movement of the past two months, at the end of March closing price is expected at 99.50 (see chart). Thus, the price has already reached the point at which it will be closed at the end of the month.
Examining technical analysis, sideward trend can be expected for pair USD | JPY before the end of this month. Intermediate support of the price is at around $ 97, and an intermediate resistance is at 104,20 (closure of the previous maximum)



GOLD
Against a background of strengthening USD gold fell sharply. The collapse of gold was caused by the closure of a large number of speculative positions, which had been opened against the dollar decline. Sharp fluctuations in the gold were caused by USD decline, as it is quoted in USD value. Against the background of USD decline, many participants bought futures on goods to maintain their savings, and that led to their growth. However, the strengthening of the dollar led to outflows of speculative money to the foreign exchange market, and then it was followed by strong sales of commodity items. It is expected that the American currency will soon resume its decline, against the backdrop of which we will see a further increase in the cost of metals.
In the beginning of European session gold is traded near the strong support level, which is $ 905-885 area. (50% of the uptrend. see chart). This area is very important and even in the case of further USD growth breaking it from first attempt will not be successful.
If USD resumes its decline, it is recommended to buy metal from current levels with target of $ 1030.

[FXinvestorss]

the source of info:PoltekFX Analytics » Blog Archive » Review of FOREX 16.04.08
USD

American currency is still traded in the sideward trend, but taking into account the great importance of today's data as well as strong state of consolidation, we can expect sharp change in prices towards both a decline in the dollar and its growth.
The signals to decline in USD are strengthening pair of EUR | USD to the absolute maximums as well as updating maximums of oil futures, which are now traded in the region of $ 113 per barrel.
The signal to the strengthening dollar is the fact that the pair has not been able to form the triangle at H4 yet.
As most of analysts expect, the dollar is likely to continue decline. In this case, the most prospective pair for buying will be EUR | USD, which is expected to grow to 1.62 marks as well as a pair of GBP | USD which is suitable to the level of strong support 1.9575.
Today the attention should be paid to CPI ex food & energy as well as Consumer Price Index.
If inflationary pressures show growth, the monetary authorities of the United States will be significantly limited in further reducing of interest rates that in the medium term should support the American currency.
The inflation data apart, we should pay attention to Housing Starts and Building Permits.
These indicators show how construction sector copes with the crisis mortgage, which has been suffered from the mortgage crisis. If the construction shows growth for a few months, then it will be a good signal for the coming completion of the crisis. Market could not apprehend single growth of indicators because of their strong decline.


GBP

GBP | USD is approaching to the area of closing five-year cycle (end of 2006) located in the area of 1.9575. It is expected that there will be fixation of some positions opened for the sale of GBP and the pair will make rebound upwards.
In the case of turnout signs, it is recommended to open up long positions with intermediate target in the region of 1.9720 and make stop loss below 1.9550.
Among the news about British economy which will be published today, unemployment should be pointed out, however taking into account issue of an important bloc of statistics of the United States it is likely that it will not make any impact.


CAD

USD | CAD fell sharply in the beginning of European session. If the decline continues, the price will be on very attractive levels, making use of which is recommended after the completion of USD decline impulse, which is expected to lower in the nearest 2 days.
Turnout of the pair can happen in the area of 1.0015 (closing January and the level of 50% of the growth impulse), or in an area of 0.9925 (closure of a three-year cycle), but, in any case, the couple is directed towards the growth and each time of correction opening of long positions is recommended.
Monetary authorities of Canada started lowering the interest rate, following the United States, but unlike America in Canada inflation is at an acceptable level, which will let resumption of lowering rates for several years.
Before the opening positions to buy the pair, it is recommended to wait until EUR | USD stabilizes in the region of 1.62 as the lowering of the dollar could lead to a decline in USD | CAD to even more attractive levels.

[FXinvestorss]

USD

Over the last trading day USD fell to one more level. The cause was a general uncertainty of investors in the American economy.
Yesterday’s statistics were not very optimistic. The Consumer Price Index showed an increase by 0.3% and CPI ex food & energy increased by 0.2% during the month. Housing Starts declined once again, reaching all 947 thousand and Building Permits fell to 927 thousand.
The data show that the construction sector continues to slow down, while inflationary pressures are still remaining within acceptable ranges and can lower interest rate once again, but as most analysts expects we will see a surge of inflation soon.
Today in the USA block of statistics will be issued, but it will not have great significance. Some fluctuation in the currency market could be caused by Jobless Claims and Leading Indicator, but, as it is expected, the market will move under the effect of technical factors.

EUR

Yesterday EUR | USD broke 1.5850 resistance level, but strong resumption of growth has not happened yet, as the market has still uncertainty about the future direction of motion. On the one hand, the continuation of decline in the American economy increasingly convinces to lower the dollar. On the other hand, the statement about concern of G7 heads about relatively low dollar can cause a strong downward pressure at any time.
Nevertheless, the price has been able to be above the level of 1.5850, which now is a strong level of support, and from which it is recommended to open positions to buy the pair if correction continues.

the source: http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=74&forex=1

[FXinvestorss]

CAD

USD | CAD is at a good level to buy it, but the overall uncertainty in the future movement of the American currency restrains investors from buying dollar against the Canadian dollar.
Opening positions on the pair is not recommended before issue of CPI, which will be published in 15:00. Reducing of the index could put pressure on the Canadian currency, because there will be more opportunities for lowering the interest rate by the Central Bank of Canada.
At present USD | CAD has two levels of support, from which turnout is likely to happen and positions should be opened: 0,9925 (area of closure of the second three-year cycle, the completion of 2007), 0,9815-0.9845 (area of closure of February and area of local minimums).
Before opening positions on buying it is recommended to consider 1.0250-70 as the first intermediate target.
the source: http://blog.poltekfx.com/?p=74&forex=1