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Part VI: Using Fibonacci to determinate market goals

Tue, Jul 4 2006, 15:39 GMT
by Facundo Molina

MolFX - Management

Final Results

Then, and based on the model developed to prove the original hypothesis, we came to the following results:

Pair EUR/USD:

Pair USD/CHF:

Pair GBP/USD:

Pair YEN/USD:

If after finishing this job, someone ask me if it is possible to predict the future, mi answer will still be “NO”. I don’t believe that could be, in fact, I don’t believe either we can predict what will happen in the next minutes…

Although this seems the opposite of the objective of this work, I personally want to remark the difference between one thing and the other.

As a technical analyst and according to what was explained above, I maintain technical analysis postulates, and use them with statistics and mathematical tools, to forecast probable target price zones.

And here is the difference: in one hand, you have the certainty, in the other the probability. I personally believe there is no complete certain of what will happen, but using some specific tools, you can determinate probabilities in a defined scenario.

We use mathematic and statistics tools to analyze hundreds of data in order to prove the objective of this work.

That’s why we can affirm than more than 70% of the times, using Fibonacci retracements and ZigZag oscillator, we can determinate the target zones where prices will go, when they show retracements against major trend.

As a conclusion of this work, we propose to you to use Fibonacci tools in intermediate time frames, in order to obtain better results in markets with a defined trend, excluding moments of excessive volatility, but with enough price fluctuation, becoming and excellent tool for short term technical traders.

Finally, I want to invite you all to extend the application of this system to smaller time frames, and to the rest of the currencies in FOREX Market, and also, to other markets, such as futures, options, or any stock market.

Published on  Fri, Jul 7 2006, 20:47 GMT