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Perceiving Forex Volatility via Descriptive Statistics… Deriving Trending and Reversals − Part 2
Thu, Feb 5 2009, 11:45 GMT
by Mark Whistler
WallStreetRockStar.com
Even when traders embody substantial technical and fundamental knowledge, risk prevails without the proper understanding of the larger probability/volatility paradigm behind currency trading. Here, traders are encouraged to boldly challenge typical pre-conceived notions of charting, in an effort to see beyond the fallacy of technical analysis. In the end, traders who understand descriptive statistics will find greater clarity and perception of volatility, before it even appears.
Words of Caution
4. Within Forex, there is no “holy grail”, so please do not read this article thinking that what I am about to show you will solve any/all trading issues. What you are about to learn is an incredibly effective guidance tool that helps identify trending, volatility and at times, reversals; however, it must be used with common sense.
5. You are about to read about descriptive statistics, which within itself has many different approaches, methodologies and studies. I will not delve into the math underneath the model in this article. Instead I am presenting descriptive statistics from a simple, conceptual framework. However, there are many resources available to explain the empiricism of descriptive statistics; you will find several at the end of this article.
6. Never forget that economics and fundamentals rule all. Traders who do not take the time to properly uncover the true economic paradigm within the market – and the future possibilities of such – will likely often find themselves on the wrong side of the trade, especially those who hold for longer timeframes.
Technicals lie, fundamentals do not.
Published on
Thu, Feb 5 2009, 11:45 GMT
WallStreetRockStar.com
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
PairsTrader.com, Inc. LLC, [WallStreetRockStar.com, FXVolatility.com and Mark Whistler] ("Company") is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. The principals, analysts and employees or affiliates of Company may hold positions in the stocks, currencies, and/or industries discussed here.
You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities and/or currencies.
The Company, the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates of Company assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. Factual statements on the Company's website, or in its publications, are made as of the date stated and are subject to change without notice. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by Company are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which be realized by you.
In addition, the indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features of Company's products (collectively, the "Information") are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Examples presented on Company's website are for educational purposes only. Such setups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the Information in making any investment. Rather, you should use the Information only as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor and tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING AND MAY NOT BE IMPACTED BY BROKERAGE AND OTHER SLIPPAGE FEES. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVERCOMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
ADDITIONAL NOTICE TO FOREX/CURRENCY TRADERS
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.
THE INFORMATION AND STRATEGIES IN THIS BOOK DO NOT MAKE ANY PROMISE, OR GUARANTEE. MARKET CONDITIONS CONTINUALLY CHANGE AND THUS, INFORMATION PROVIDED IN VOLATILITY UNLIMITED COULD CHANGE AS WELL.
YOU SHOULD SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE PROACTIVELY, DURING AND AFTER ATTEMPTING TO IMPLEMENT ANY STRATEGY/INFORMATION NEW TO YOU AND YOUR TRADING KNOWLEDGE, OR STYLE.
NEARLY 95% OF ALL RETAIL TRADERS LOSE.
PLEASE DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRADE FOREX IF YOU FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED EVEN REMOTELY APPROACHES YOUR RISK TOLERANCE. THE BEST ADVICE TO MOST INDIVIDUAL'S CONSIDERING TRADING FOREX – IS UNLESS YOU HAVE PROFESSIONAL HELP – DON'T.
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