Watching AAPL, Keeping an Open Mind

Harry Boxer, on Stocks to Watch for Tuesday (TheTechTrader.com)

Wall Street had a nice day on Monday. The indices opened strong, and ran all day in a rising channel. Stocks that we follow did well, but it looks like the indices are still a little short-term long in the tooth. Nevertheless, momentum is strong, and Apple's (AAPL) earnings were pretty much blow-out, and should be an impetus for the market on Tuesday. Let's take a look at some of the stocks we're following closely.

BioDelivery Sciences International Inc. (BDSI), one of our swing trades, is looking great. It spiked down, took out some stops, and ran right back up four days in a row. This rally is taking a lot of the biotech stocks up with it. The resistance on this stock is going to be at 18, and if it gets through that, look for it to head up to the 20-21 zone.

BioFuel Energy Corp. (BIOF) had a good day, up 41 cents, or 5.9%, to 7.29 on 809,700 shares. In a week or so, the company's going to become JBGL. They have about $200 million in revenue, $45 million in EBITDA, and what I'm hearing is that it should be worth something like 45-55 cents a share. It could spur that stock to the 10-11 range again, maybe all the way up to 13 short-term.

NQ Mobile Inc. (NQ) had a nice day on Monday. After the spike down in July, the spike up, and then consolidation, this stock had gone from 5.68, all the way up to 9.35 in the last four weeks. More importantly, on Monday, it broke out over the August highs. Now we can set up a target around 10 1/2-11.

SunEdison, Inc. (SUNE) is looking good. I am very pleased about how it had pulled back on Friday, and then snapped right back on Monday, holding support, and then moving up 1.28, or 7.7%, on 25 million shares. That's very heavy volume. There may be some more upside up toward the 20-21 zone.

Other on Harry's Charts of the Day are Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO), Akorn, Inc. (AKRX), Anacor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ANAC), Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AVNR), BlackBerry Limited (BBRY), ITT Educational Services Inc. (ESI), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), NewLink Genetics Corporation (NLNK), Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD), and ShoreTel, Inc. (SHOR).

Mike Paulenoff, on AAPL Still in Corrective Confines? (MPTrader.com)

Apple (AAPL) beat on both EPS and Revenues, with excellent sales in iPhones but perhaps a touch light on iPads. AAPL was up 1.4% from its 4 pm close at 99.76, which itself was up 2% from last Friday's close.

As I noted ahead of earnings, while it might have been very compelling to be long with Carl Icahn into earnings, let's remember the recent "Icahn high" was 102.38, at which point AAPL reversed into a nosedive to a low of 93.70 on Oct 16.

Apple, with a post-earnings high so far of 101.75, still remains within the confines of its Sep-Oct sideways corrective period.

My preferred scenario calls for another loop down to a minimum of 98.50 and possibly 95.00 prior to my expectation of a thrust towards 107-109.

Jack Steiman, on Watching AAPL, Keeping an Open Mind (SwingTradeOnline.com)

I'd anticipated a snapback off the 10% down-move on the S&P 500, with a retrace to around the gap at 1928, or thereabouts. Thus far, the market is playing out as expected. Of course, we could go somewhat higher or lower than my target. It's just that you have the confluence of gap, moving average, and a 50% retrace, all coming together at that approximate level.

When a market wants to do something, it's very hard to deny it. For instance, there was absolutely terrible news from market and economic leader International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). They actually paid someone else $1.5 billion just to take their semiconductor business off their hands. The stock was absolutely crushed, yet only the Dow was affected in an adverse way relative to all the other major indexes. A week ago this news would have totally crushed the indexes across the board. IBM had every chance to destroy the rally off the lows, and it couldn't do it, so it shows this is really a ridiculous game. News one day can crush a market, while the same news a day or two different can cause the market to laugh it off. It's about recognizing where you're at in the maze.

For now, the market continues its countertrend move off the S&P 500 1820 lows, with my target remaining around 1928. Nothing is guaranteed, and the market will need Apple Inc. (AAPL) to help out this evening. We shall see what they bring to the table.

Remember that the market can fool you in a heartbeat. When you think one thing is destined to happen it can throw you off course in a moment's time. Never think only one way. Learn to adapt and adjust as you go along day to day. While it's my belief we'll see 1928 to 1949 on this move -- closer to 1928, but 1949 is the 50-day exponential moving average, and that is never out of play -- the market doesn't have to get there. There are no rules. Just your best judgment based on what's presented to you on those charts. Also, it's not impossible that the market keeps going higher than we think simply because that, too, would be very unexpected.

If we get to the 20's, gap or 50's, you'll need to see a strong reversal stick before thinking about taking on anything to the short side. There are so many unknowns such as what may happen from the Fed out of no where, because Yellen panics based on price action. Never think you're that smart or above the game. Don't get emotionally tied in to only one thought process. That's how the majority get burned.

If and when I see the proper topping stick I will strongly consider shorting an ETF. Never a stock. Only an ETF. That all said, we see what AAPL brings to the table later this evening and how the market reacts to it. Keep an open mind at all times.

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline, a journal of his market analysis and stock trading alerts.

Avi Gilburt, on Small Window Open for Bulls (ElliottWaveTrader.net)

This past weekend, I left members with several possibilities that can occur from the pattern set up we were left with at the end of last week. The least likely in my mind was the bullish count with the wave (iv) completed at the lower target we set last week. However, as of right now, the bulls have a small window open for that potential, and Tuesday will be a HUGE day to see if they can capitalize.

As you can see on the 60 minute chart, I have added the bullish count as a series of i-ii, (1)(2). This means that the market MUST continue with a strong gap up tomorrow, and move strongly through the 1913ES region. Should this occur, then we have gone a long way to confirming that wave (iv) has indeed completed.

But, as I said, that is a very small window at this time. I have a hard time seeing the market make it through the 1906ES level. Should we turn down hard from our blue box of resistance, rather than see the big gap up in the bullish count, then it should confirm that a lower low will be seen into the end of the month, or into Thanksgiving, depending on if we hold support below in a (b) wave of the larger b-wave, or if the next drop provides us with a 5 wave structure for wave I of 5 down.

So, I am going to give this market until tomorrow to either prove to us that wave (iv) has potentially completed, and we have begun the trek to 2150 into the first quarter of 2015, or if we are setting up for another loop down to target the 1700's next.