Weekly Forex Market Preview: 26th October

Economic Data Summary

This week’s U.S. economic releases begin with Monday’s release of Pending Home Sales (+1.1%), followed on Tuesday by CB Consumer Confidence (+0.5%), Core Durable Goods Orders (+0.5%) and Durable Goods Orders (+0.4%). On Wednesday, the FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate (<0.25%). Thursday’s releases include Advance GDP (+3.1%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (277K) and the Advance GDP Price Index (2.0%). Also on Thursday, Fed President Janet Yellen will give the opening speech at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession, in Washington DC. Friday will have the release of Chicago PMI (60.2), Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (86.4), U.S. Personal Spending (+0.2%), the Core PCE Price Index (+0.1%) and the Employment Cost Index (+0.6%).

The Eurozone economic calendar began on Sunday as the ECB announced that 25 out of 130 European banks overseen by the ECB had capital shortfalls under an “adverse” economic scenario. On Monday, Eurozone numbers will have German Ifo Business Climate (104.6), the M3 Money Supply (+2.2%) and Private Loans (-1.3%). Tuesday’s sole data point is German Import Prices (-0.1%) followed by a tentative German 10-year Bond Auction on Wednesday. Thursday’s data includes German Preliminary CPI (-0.1%), Spanish Flash CPI (0.0%), Spanish Flash GDP (+0.5%), German Unemployment Change (+4K) and an Italian 10-year Bond Auction. The week concludes with Friday’s release of the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (+0.4%), German Retail Sales (-0.8%), French Consumer Spending (-0.3%), Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate (+0.8%) and the Eurozone Unemployment Rate (11.5%).

Japan’s economic calendar begins with Tuesday’s release of Retail Sales (+0.9%) followed on Wednesday by Preliminary Industrial Production (+2.3%). No significant data is expected on Thursday. Friday will have Household Spending (-4.0%), Tokyo Core CPI (+2.5%), National Core CPI (+3.0), the Japanese Unemployment Rate (3.6%) and Housing Starts (-17.1%). Also on Friday, the tentative release of the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ Outlook Report and a BOJ Press Conference.

The UK economic calendar is relatively sparse this week and begins with Monday’s release of CBI Realized Sales (29) and a speech by MPC member Shafik. Tuesday will have a speech by MPC member Cunliffe, followed by Wednesday’s release of Net Lending to Individuals (+2.8B) and a speech by MPC member Haldane. Thursday’s sole release is Nationwide HPI (+0.4%) followed by another speech from MPC member Cunliffe.

Swiss economic data this week is limited to Thursday’s release of the KOF Economic Barometer (99.2) and the UBS Consumption Indicator (1.35 last).

The Australian economic calendar is sparse this week with Thursday’s release of Import Prices (+0.3%) and the tentative release of HIA New Home Sales (+3.3% last). The week concludes on Friday with PPI (-0.1% last) and Private Sector Credit (+0.4%).

Canadian releases this week are limited to Wednesday’s release of RMPI (+1.5%) and a speech by BOC Governor Poloz. The week’s data ends with Friday’s release of Canadian GDP (0.0%).

New Zealand’s economic calendar begins with Wednesday’s RBNZ Official Cash Rate (3.5%), the RBNZ Rate Statement and ANZ Business Confidence (13.4 last), followed by Thursday’s release of Building Consents (0.0% last) .

Top Policymaker Speeches and Statements for the Coming Week

Upcoming speeches and statements from top monetary policymakers are listed below for this week, along with their start time in the GMT time zone and the affected currency. Unexpectedly hawkish comments will generally benefit the relevant currency.

Sunday, October 26th

12:00pm EUR EBA Bank Stress Test Results
12:00pm EUR ECB Stress Test Results

Monday, October 27th

7:30pm GBP MPC Member Shafik speaks

Tuesday, October 28th

6:30pm GBP MPC Member Cunliffe speaks

Wednesday, October 29th

6:30pm GBP MPC Member Haldane speaks
7:00pm USD FOMC Statement
3.50% NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
9:15pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz speaks

Thursday, October 30th

8:45am GBP MPC Member Cunliffe speaks
2:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen speaks

Friday, October 31st

Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
7:00am JPY BOJ Outlook Report
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference

Technical Chart Points and Forecast Market View by Currency Pair