Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
The main release next week is the US labour market report for July, which is one of the important data releases ahead of the Fed meeting in September.
We expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 210,000, which is a pace that will move the core of the FOMC in favour of a rate hike in September, in our view.
In the euro area, retail sales for June are set to decline in line with the lower consumer confidence.
German factory orders and industrial production should continue to be supported by foreign orders.
In the UK, the policy announcement, minutes and latest Inflation Report will be released at the same time. We expect the MPC to be divided on whether to raise the interest rate or not. The new projections will also attract attention.
In Denmark, it will be interesting to see if the Danish central bank continued to intervene in July in order to prevent the DKK weakening.
Global macro and market themes
The FOMC statement suggests the Fed is not far from the first rate hike.
US data is key to our call for a September Fed hike and very important for financial markets.
We expect higher short-end bond yields and lower a EUR/USD in the short term.
In the euro area focus is back on better fundamentals following the Greek deal in mid-July.
In China we expect the impact on growth from the stock market turmoil to be modest.
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