Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
We expect the ECB to remain on hold and we believe Mario Draghi to sound as dovish as he can without actually easing. We expect more easing in 2015.
The US November employment report is due to be released on Friday and we expect payrolls to post another healthy gain of 240,000 and we look for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.8%.
We expect ISM Manufacturing to decline to 57.5 in November, down from 59.0. The ISM has been at a lofty level for some time now and has largely overshot actual manufacturing production.
The investment outlook for the oil sector in Norway will be a major indicator of the extent to which the fall in the oil price has affected the mainland economy.
November figures for Danish FX reserves are set to be released on Tuesday and are likely to attract attention due to the very low EUR/DKK.
Global macro and market themes
The lower oil price is set to support consumers but keep eye on financial risks.
Risk assets are supported by recovery expectations and liquidity.
The euro area is bottoming.
We expect the US soft patch to be short.
Norway's growth outlook has weakened, while Denmark is stronger than expected and domestic demand is still driving Swedish growth.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD regains traction, recovers above 1.0700
EUR/USD regained its traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0700 in the American session. The US Dollar struggles to preserve its strength after the data from the US showed that the economy grew at a softer pace than expected in Q1.
GBP/USD returns to 1.2500 area in volatile session
GBP/USD reversed its direction and recovered to 1.2500 after falling to the 1.2450 area earlier in the day. Although markets remain risk-averse, the US Dollar struggles to find demand following the disappointing GDP data.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
XRP extends its decline, crypto experts comment on Ripple stablecoin and benefits for XRP Ledger
Ripple extends decline to $0.52 on Thursday, wipes out weekly gains. Crypto expert asks Ripple CTO how the stablecoin will benefit the XRP Ledger and native token XRP.
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI, a reliable indicator of the national number and then the BoJ policy announcement. Tokyo CPI ex food and energy in Japan was a rise to 2.90% in March from 2.50%.