Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
In the euro area the flash estimate for HICP inflation in November is released, and we expect it to decline back to this cycle’s low of 0.3% y/y .
German IFO expectations are expected to give a sign of improvement, as we forecast an increase for the first time since April. ZEW expectations increased for the first time in 10 months in November, and this is usually a good indication that IFO expectations will also increase.
Money supply and lending figures for October are also released in the euro area and we expect recent improvements to continue.
Consumers will be in focus this coming week in the US, with two US consumer confidence surveys up for release. The outlook on inflation expectations in the consumer surveys will be the most important item to watch, given the importance of these expectations for the Fed.
In Japan most of the hard economic data for October will be released next week, where we see industrial production and retail sales as the most important.
Next week OPEC meets in Vienna for its biannual assessment of its output target.
Global macro and market themes
The biggest stimulus to consumers from an oil price decline since 2008. It strengthens the recovery case in early 2015 and thus risk asset performance.
Bond yield decline stabilises on rise in risk appetite.
Tentative signs of bottoming in the euro area.
Rise in US core inflation eases downside inflation risks.
Rate cut in China underpins pick-up in growth.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends gains above 1.0700, focus on key US data
EUR/USD meets fresh demand and rises toward 1.0750 in the European session on Thursday. Renewed US Dollar weakness offsets the risk-off market environment, supporting the pair ahead of the key US GDP and PCE inflation data.
USD/JPY keeps pushing higher, eyes 156.00 ahead of US GDP data
USD/JPY keeps breaking into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 early Thursday, recapturing 155.50 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen remains vulnerable, despite looming intervention risks. The focus shifts to Thursday's US GDP report and the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold closes below key $2,318 support, US GDP holds the key
Gold price is breathing a sigh of relief early Thursday after testing offers near $2,315 once again. Broad risk-aversion seems to be helping Gold find a floor, as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the bright metal ahead of the preliminary reading of the US first-quarter GDP due later on Thursday.
Injective price weakness persists despite over 5.9 million INJ tokens burned
Injective price is trading with a bearish bias, stuck in the lower section of the market range. The bearish outlook abounds despite the network's deflationary efforts to pump the price.
US Q1 GDP Preview: Economic growth set to remain firm in, albeit easing from Q4
The United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is seen expanding at an annualized rate of 2.5% in Q1. The current resilience of the US economy bolsters the case for a soft landing.