US up, Europe down, China sideways

Market movers ahead

  • Although the US job market has picked up, we expect Ben Bernanke to argue that full-on recovery is still some way off – as is any tightening of monetary policy.

  • In Europe, the week’s PMI, IFO, ZEW and consumer confidence data are unlikely to signal any great sea-change in the economy.

  • The Chinese PMI for March will shed some light on what is actually going on there after the big swings in data around Chinese New Year.


Global update

  • US retail sales are continuing to climb despite higher taxes and gasoline prices, and there were some strong data from the job market.

  • The EU countries seem slightly more open to more expansionary fiscal policy, while industrial production data revealed further decline in the euro area, albeit at a slower rate.

  • Data from China generally disappointed and it does not look like GDP growth will pick up in Q1, but there is uncertainty due to Chinese New Year.

  • Norges Bank signalled that a first rate increase in Norway is a year off and there may even be a chance of a further rate cut, but we consider this unlikely.


Focus

  • We will be publishing new economic forecasts and analyses in the coming week: Global Scenarios on Tuesday and Nordic Outlook on Thursday.
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