Market movers ahead
Although the US job market has picked up, we expect Ben Bernanke to argue that full-on recovery is still some way off – as is any tightening of monetary policy.
In Europe, the week’s PMI, IFO, ZEW and consumer confidence data are unlikely to signal any great sea-change in the economy.
The Chinese PMI for March will shed some light on what is actually going on there after the big swings in data around Chinese New Year.
US retail sales are continuing to climb despite higher taxes and gasoline prices, and there were some strong data from the job market.
The EU countries seem slightly more open to more expansionary fiscal policy, while industrial production data revealed further decline in the euro area, albeit at a slower rate.
Data from China generally disappointed and it does not look like GDP growth will pick up in Q1, but there is uncertainty due to Chinese New Year.
Norges Bank signalled that a first rate increase in Norway is a year off and there may even be a chance of a further rate cut, but we consider this unlikely.
- We will be publishing new economic forecasts and analyses in the coming week: Global Scenarios on Tuesday and Nordic Outlook on Thursday.