U.S. Review
Third Quarter Growth Appears Solid
- Retail sales rose 0.6 percent in August as auto sales helped to boost the headline number. The stronger reading allayed some fears about consumer spending in the third quarter.
- Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in July signaling that the pace of inventory building may moderate in the third quarter. Inventory data for June were not revised higher and the rise in stocks remained at 0.4 percent.
- Import prices fell a sizable 0.9 percent in August with petroleum import prices accounting for most of the drop in the headline reading.
Global Review
Central Banks Moving in Different Directions
- July figures for U.K. industrial production bested consensus estimates, and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney indicated the Bank could hike rates as early as this spring. But political developments in the U.K. took center stage in global news this week. For perspective on the vote for Scottish Independence see our Topic of the Week on page 7.
- In the Global Review on page 4, we discuss economic developments in the United Kingdom, a record jobs report in Australia and how the Bank of Korea is reasserting its independence.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.