U.S. Review
Data Details Show Economy Continues to Firm
- Second quarter GDP was revised higher to a 4.2 percent annualized rate, with the details painting a brighter picture of the economy. Compared to the first release, trade was less of a drag, nonresidential fixed investment was stronger and inventories provided a smaller—although still sizeable—boost.
- Headlines for housing data were mixed this week, but reports generally suggest the sector continues to gradually improve as home prices are increasing at more reasonable rates, supply is coming back and future recorded sales look to improve.
- Consumers' willingness to spend remains somewhat questionable, with personal spending slipping 0.1 percent.
Global Review
Canada Firming as Europe Struggles and Japan Falters
- Real GDP in Canada grew at a 3.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter as a 3.0 percent increase in final domestic demand and a boost from trade offset a 1.9 percent drag from slower inventory investment. See our website for complete write-up on this week’s Canadian GDP report.
- In the International Review on page 4, we look at what the latest signal of slow growth in Europe means for ECB policy as well as how the Japanese economy is faring in the wake of the deleterious effects of the April consumption tax hike.
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EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
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Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
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Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
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