Weak euro area retail sales, but private consumption should still increase in Q2


  • Euro area retail sales were weaker than expected in May as it was unchanged m/m. At the same time it was revised lower in April, where it declined 0.2% m/m.
  • Today’s release implies the upward trend in retail sales have lost a bit of momentum, but considering the yearly growth rate it is still around the highest since 2007.
  • The figures for retail sales in Q2 imply private consumption looks a bit weak in Q2. Nevertheless, retail sales still suggest that private consumption will increase in line with our forecast (there is even some upside risk).
  • Looking ahead consumer confidence points to stronger retail sales and also suggests there is upside risk to our forecast for private consumption.

The upward trend in retail sales lost a bit of momentum However, retail sales suggest upside risk to private consumtion

retail sales

Consumer confidence indicates stronger retail sales... ... and also suggest upside risk to private consumption

consumer confidence

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650

EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650

EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.

GBP/USD News

Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike

Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike

Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.

Gold News

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in

Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above  $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research. 

Read more

Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda

Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda

US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures