USD/JPY muted in anticipation of fundamental data

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD rebounds at 1.1263 on Thursday

"The euro-area economy showed little sign of impact from the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union with a second month of gains in the Purchasing Managers Index to 53.3 in August."

– based on Bloomberg

• Pair's Outlook
  On Thursday morning the currency exchange rate found support in the monthly R1 at 1.1263 and slightly rebounded. However it faces the weekly PP at 1.2806 from the upside, which might mean a flat trading session for the rate during today's trading session. However, afterwards it is most likely going to surge, as the SMAs approach from the south. Previously the common European currency depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday to such an extent that it fully discarded the previous pattern.

• Traders' Sentiment
  SWFX traders have slightly decreased the bearish sentiment, as 61% of open positions are short on Thursday, compared to 63% the previous session. In the meantime, pending commands are 55% short.

GBP/USD in limbo ahead of US data

"The strength of post-Brexit data, much monetary easing already priced into the rates market and a generally weak dollar should allow pound to rally towards $1.3450."

- Morgan Stanley (based on Business Recorder)

• Pair's Outlook
  The Sterling appreciated against the US Dollar for the third consecutive day yesterday, but with each rally being smaller than the preceding one, suggesting that a reversal is due. Stronger US fundamentals could trigger a Cable sell-off today, with the exchange rate returning under the 1.32 major level. However, technical studies are unable to confirm this outlook, as they retain mixed signals, but a possibility certainly exists. In case of a bearish development, the nearest significant support will be the monthly PP at 1.3170. Contrariwise, disappointing US data might only further strengthen the given pair, providing an opportunity to reclaim the 1.33 mark.

• Traders' Sentiment
  Today 56% of all open positions are short (previously 53%). Meanwhile, the share of sell orders declined from 61 to 56%.

USD/JPY muted in anticipation of fundamental data

"It [a recovery towards 102.00] probably won't happen on the back of Yellen's comments but it could happen over the next few weeks as long as 99.00 holds."

- BK Asset Management (based on Reuters)

• Pair's Outlook
  The USD/JPY currency pair succeeded in remaining above the 100.00 psychological level for another day, but risks of a slump even below that area persist. Technical indicators keep giving bearish signals in all timeframes, suggesting that a set of US fundamental data could disappoint today and drive the Buck lower against the Japanese Yen. The weekly PP, which is now the nearest support, will then most likely fail to hold the losses, with all focus shifting to the support cluster around 99.50, represented by the weekly S1 and the Bollinger band. On the other hand, potential gains will doubtfully exceed the 101.20 mark, where the 20-day SMA coincides with the weekly R1.

• Traders' Sentiment
  There are now 68% of traders holding long positions, compared to 67% yesterday. The number of buy orders, however, slid from 54 to 52%.

Gold falls and increases volatility on Wednesday

"As soon as we get some type of supportive candle, I more than willing to jump into this market because I believe in the longer-term uptrend."

– Christopher Lewis, Analyst (based on FX Empire)

• Pair's Outlook
  The yellow metal stopped the fluctuations around the 1,340 level, in which it had been in for the past weeks, as the metal fell on Wednesday due to being pressured by the 20-day SMA from the downside. In the fall the bullion almost reached the weekly S2 at 1,322.63 and ended the session at 1,326.32. On Thursday morning gold has rebounded against the weekly support level and slightly surged, as it has encountered the 55-day SMA at 1,327.31. As the metal is pressured between the two levels, it is most likely going to remain unchanged during today's trading session.

• Traders' Sentiment
  Traders remain slightly bearish on the metal, as 52% of open positions are short on Thursday. However, pending commands are clearly bullish, as 63% of placed orders are to buy.

 

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