EUR/USD
Challenging its declining trendline.
EUR/USD continues to rebound after its successful test of the support at 1.2358. The hourly resistance at 1.2504 (20/11/2014 low) has been broken. Resistances are now given by the declining trendline (around 1.2534) and 1.2577. An hourly support can be found at 1.2444 (26/11/2014 low, see also the rising trendline).
In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a downtrend since May 2014. The break of the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) has opened the way for a decline towards the strong support at 1.2043 (24/07/2012 low). A key resistance stands at 1.2632.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bullish breakout at 1.5736.
GBP/USD has broken to the upside out of its horizontal range between the support at 1.5593 and the resistance at 1.5736. The implied shortterm upside is given by 1.5879. A key resistance stands at 1.5945. Hourly supports can be found at 1.5736 (previous resistance) and 1.5679 (26/11/2014 low).
In the longer term, the break of the support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low) confirms an underlying bearish trend. A conservative downside risk is given by a test of the support at 1.5423 (14/08/2013 low). Another support can be found at 1.5102 (02/08/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.5945 (11/11/2014 high, see also the declining channel).
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Drifting lower.
USD/JPY is consolidating after having posted a 7-year high at 118.98. The current mild prices decline suggests an underlying strong buying interest. Hourly supports can now be found at 117.05 (previous resistance) and 116.34 (18/11/2014 low).
A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 105.23 (15/10/2014 high) holds. The break of the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high) opens the way for a further rise towards 120.00 (psychological threshold, see also the 61.8% retracement of the 1998-2011 decline). A major resistance stands at 124.14 (22/06/2007 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Short-term corrective phase underway.
USD/CHF is in a short-term corrective phase. The hourly support at 0.9606 (20/11/2014 high, see also the 61.8% retracement) has been breached. A key support stands at 0.9544/0.9531. An hourly resistance lies at 0.9666.
From a longer term perspective, the technical structure favours a full retracement of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The recent new highs above the key resistance at 0.9691 confirm this outlook. A strong support stands at 0.9368 (15/10/2014 low). A key resistance can be found at 0.9839 (22/05/2013 high).
The remaining of our long position has been stopped.
Our long position has been stopped.
USD/CAD
Succession of lower highs remains intact.
USD/CAD continues to move within its declining channel and has thus far failed to invalidate its succession of lower highs. Resistances stand at 1.1326 (21/11/2014 high, see also the declining channel) and 1.1369. Hourly supports can be found at 1.1225 (24/11/2014 low) and 1.1192.
In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, as highlighted by the recent prices behaviour, this expected rise is likely to be very gradual. A strong support stands at 1.1072 (02/10/2014 low).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Bouncing sharply.
AUD/USD is bouncing after having made 4- year low. Hourly resistances are given by 0.8620 (25/11/2014 high) and by the steeper declining trendline (around 0.8654). Hourly supports now lie at 0.8530 (intraday low) and 0.8480.
In the long-term, the break of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low) confirms the underlying long-term bearish trend and opens the way for further weakness. Supports can be found at 0.8316 (01/07/2010 low) and 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low). A key resistance stands at 0.8911 (29/10/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Monitor the resistance at 186.13.
GBP/JPY continues to consolidate below the resistance at 186.13. The potential short-term ascending triangle favours a bullish bias. Hourly supports can be found at 184.78 (26/11/2014 low) and 183.98 (21/11/2014 low).
In the long-term, the trend is positive as long as the strong support area between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds. The break of the strong resistance at 180.72 (19/09/2014 high) opens the way for further strength. A key resistance stands at 197.45 (24/09/2008 high). A key support lies at 180.72 (previous resistance).
Buy stop 2 units at 186.23, Obj: Close unit 1 at 187.95, remaining at 189.95, Stop: 185.42.
EUR/JPY
Fading near the resistance at 147.39.
EUR/JPY has thus far failed to break of the hourly resistance at 147.39. As a result, a break of the initial support at 146.30 (25/11/2014 low) would increase the odds to see a second leg lower towards 143.85. Hourly supports can be found at 145.59 and 144.79. Another resistance stands at 149.14 (20/11/2014 high).
The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the strong support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The break of the major resistance at 145.69 opens the way for a further rise towards the psychological resistance at 150.00. Another resistance stands at 157.00 (08/09/2008 high). A key support stands at 144.79.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Weak bounce thus far.
EUR/GBP's recent strength has thus far been unimpressive. As a result, the technical structure continues to favour a second leg lower. Monitor the test of the hourly support at 0.7903. Another hourly support lies at 0.7866. An hourly resistance stands at 0.7955 (17/11/2014 low), while a key resistance area can be found between 0.8047 (15/10/2014 high) and 0.8066 (see also the 200-day moving average).
In the longer term, the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) has held thus far. However, a decisive break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high, see also the declining channel and the 200-day moving average) is needed to confirm an improving technical structure.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Remains weak.
EUR/CHF's bounce near the SNB's threshold at 1.20 is thus far unimpressive and indicates persistent selling pressures. An hourly resistance can be found at 1.2039 (12/11/2014 high). Another resistance lies at 1.2069 (31/10/2014 high).
In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which will be enforced with the "utmost determination". For the time being, a break of this threshold is very unlikely.
Await fresh signal.
GOLD (in USD)
Fading near the resistance at 1208.
Gold is showing some signs of weakness near the resistance at 1208 (61.8% retracement). The hourly support at 1187 (21/11/2014 low) has held thus far. Another hourly support lies at 1175 (see also the rising channel), whereas another resistance stands at 1236.
In the long-term, the move below the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) confirms the underlying downtrend and opens the way for further declines towards the strong support at 1027 (28/10/2009 low). A strong resistance can be found at 1255 (21/10/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
SILVER (in USD)
The resistance at 16.68 has held thus far.
Silver is fading near the resistance at 16.68. The hourly support at 16.28 (24/11/2014 low) has been breached. A more significant support stands at 15.91 (previous resistance). Another resistance can be found at 17.04 (see also the declining trendline).
In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Although the strong support at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low) has held thus far, the lack of any base formation continues to favour a bearish bias. A resistance lies at 17.80 (15/10/2014 high). Another key support can be found at 11.77 (20/04/2009 low).
Await fresh signal.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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