EUR/USD - Weak bounce thus far

EUR/USD

Weak bounce thus far.

• EUR/USD is trying to bounce from its oversold decline. However, the hourly resistance at 1.2988 (05/09/2014 high) has held thus far. A break of the hourly support at 1.2860 would signal the resumption of the underlying downtrend. Another hourly resistance can be found at 1.3110 (02/09/2014 low).
  

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The break of the key support at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low) opens the way for a decline towards the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3221 (28/08/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bouncing.

• GBP/USD is bouncing. An hourly resistance can be found at 1.6340 (05/09/2014 high), while a key resistance stands at 1.6497 (03/09/2014 high). A break of the hourly support at 1.6186 (11/09/2014 low) would indicate a weakening short-term bullish momentum. Another support stands at 1.6052. 

• In the longer term, prices have collapsed after having reached 4-year highs. The breach of the key support at 1.6220 confirms persistent selling pressures and opens the way for further decline towards the strong support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low). A key resistance now stands at 1.6644.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Pushing higher.

• USD/JPY continues its steep rise despite the deep short-term overbought conditions. The short-term technical structure is positive as long as the support at 106.64 holds. Another hourly support can be found at 106.04.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The break to the upside out of the consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 favours a resumption of the underlying bullish trend. A test of the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Consolidating.

• USD/CHF has faded near the resistance at 0.9404 (61.8% retracement). However, the hourly support at 0.9315 (09/09/2014 low) has held thus far. Another hourly support can be found at 0.9287 (05/09/2014 low). A key resistance stands at 0.9456.

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure calls for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The break of the strong resistance at 0.9250 (07/11/2013 high) opens the way for a move towards the next strong resistance at 0.9456 (06/09/2013 high). Supports can be found at 0.9176 (03/09/2014 low) and 0.9104 (22/08/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Pushing higher.

• USD/CAD has broken to the upside out of the horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0811 and the key resistance at 1.0998. A second leg higher towards 1.1188 (second leg of the same size as the first one) is likely. The break of the resistance at 1.1053 confirms this scenario. Supports can be found at 1.1029 (12/09/2014 low) and 1.0934 (10/09/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Declining sharply.

• AUD/USD continues its steep decline. The psychological support at 0.9000 has been breached. Another support lies at 0.8891. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9080 (intraday high) and 0.9218 (10/09/2014 high). 

• In the medium-term, the break to the downside out of the 5 month horizontal range between 0.9206 and 0.9505 (bearish head and shoulders formation) calls for a further decline towards the support at 0.8891 (03/03/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Approaching the key resistance at 175.37.

• GBP/JPY is now close to the key resistance at 175.37. Given the short-term overextended rise, short-term caution is favoured. Hourly supports can be found at 173.27 (intraday low) and 172.78 (11/09/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). A decisive break of the strong support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) is needed to invalidate this scenario.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Aproaching a key resistance area.

• EUR/JPY has broken the key resistance at 138.03/138.28, validating a bullish base formation. Monitor the key resistance area defined by the declining trendline (around 139.62) and 140.09 (see also the 200 day moving average). Hourly supports can be found at 138.12 (intraday low) and 137.67 (intraday low).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance stands at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high).

Await fresh signal

EUR/GBP

Moving sideways.

• EUR/GBP continues to consolidate within the horizontal range defined by the support at 0.7874 and the key resistance at 0.8034. An hourly support lies at 0.7941 (12/09/2014 low). The long-term declining channel continues to favour a bearish bias.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Monitor the resistance at 1.2121.

• EUR/CHF has improved. However, the resistance at 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high) has held thus far. Hourly supports are given by 1.2083 and by the rising trendline (around 1.2071). Another resistance can be found at 1.2145.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Drifting lower.

• Gold has broken the support at 1240, confirming an underlying bearish momentum. Resistances can be found at 1258 (09/09/2014 high) and 1278 (04/09/2014 high). Another support lies at 1219 (08/01/2014 low).

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured. The recent break to the downside out of the symmetrical triangle confirms this scenario.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Challenging a major support area.

• Silver is challenging its major support area defined by 18.64 and 18.23. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 19.15 (10/09/2014 high) and 19.37 (04/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the underlying downtrend and the potential declining triangle underway since August 2013 favour a bearish bias despite the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). Another support can be found at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A key resistance lies at 21.58 (10/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.