AUD/USD: Validates double-bottom formation

EUR/USD

Weak recovery bounce

• EUR/USD was able to bounce of 2014 lows at 1.3153 yet buying pressure is thin. The technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.3297 (22/08/2014 high). A first hourly resistance lies at 1.3220 (25/08/2014 low). A key support stands at 1.3105.

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. A long-term decline towards the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) is favoured. However, in the shorter term, monitor the key support at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low) given the general oversold conditions. A key resistance lies at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Up against resistance at 1.6601.

• GBP/USD made an intraday bullish reversal (hammer) on Monday. Coupled with the key support at 1.6460 and the oversold conditions, a short-term rebound is likely. An initial resistance lies at 1.6601 (21/08/2014 high). Other resistances can be found at 1.6679 (see also the declining trendline) and 1.6739. An hourly support lies at 1.6501 (25/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low, see also the 200 day moving average) invalidates the positive outlook caused by the previous 4-year highs. However, the lack of medium-term bearish reversal pattern and the short-term oversold conditions do not call for an outright bearish view. A key support stands at 1.6460 (24/03/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.6611, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.6883, remaining at 1.7165, Stop: 1.6527.

USD/JPY

Bulls cant hold highs.

• USD/JPY has failed to hold above the key resistance at 104.13, suggesting a weakening short-term buying interest. A break of the hourly support at 103.50 (22/08/2014 low) would confirm a deterioration of the short-term technical structure. Another support lies at 102.91 (intraday low). A resistance now stands at 104.49 (25/08/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The break to the upside out of the consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 favours a resumption of the underlying bullish trend. Strong resistances can be found at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high) and 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Failure to make new highs

• USD/CHF has broken the strong resistance at 0.9156 but rally faltered at 0.9183. The short-term technical structure is positive as long as the hourly support at 0.9138 (26/08/2014 low) holds. Another support stands at 0.9104 (22/08/2014 low).

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9250 (07/11/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Marginal buying appears.

• USD/CAD has broken the hourly support at 1.0861 (15/08/2014 low, see also the 38.2% retracement) suggesting another bearish leg to 1.7097 (28/07/2104 basing low). A resistance now stands at 1.0998 (26/08/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Validates double-bottom formation

• AUD/USD has violated 0.9345, and validate a short-term double-bottom formation with a target at 0.9450. Another resistance lies at 0.9374. An hourly support can be found at 0.9272 (26/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 (see also the 200 day moving average) and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The current succession of lower highs since early July 2014 favours a bearish bias.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

The declining trendline has held thus far.

• GBP/JPY is bouncing near the support implied by the 200 day moving average at 172.77 (see also the long-term rising trendline). A resistance area is given by the declining trendline (around 173.04) and 173.51. An hourly support can be found at 171.63 (22/08/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Monitor the support at 136.77.

• EUR/JPYis stuck in a consolidating range. Range is between resistance at 138.03 and support at 136.77 (15/08/2014 low). Another hourly support lies at 136.37 (12/08/2014 low). An hourly resistance can now be found at 137.42 (26/08/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The recent successful test of the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low) favours further sideways moves. A strong resistance lies at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Challenging its short-term rising trendline.

• EUR/GBP has weakened after its successful test of the key resistance at 0.8034. The hourly support implied by the rising trendline is challenged. Another support lies at 0.7916. An initial resistance can be found at 0.7984 (intraday high).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Persistent selling pressures in place.

• EUR/CHF has made new lows, confirming persistent short-term selling pressures. Supports stand at 1.2063 (10/12/2012 low) and 1.2030 (28/11/2012 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2093 (26/08/2014 high) and 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23). 

GOLD (in USD)

Bounce finds demand

• Gold has recovered well above the low of its symmetrical triangle (around 1272). The hourly resistance at 1292 (21/08/2014 high) has held thus far. Another hourly resistance can be found at 1304 (intraday high), whereas another support lies at 1258 (17/06/2014 low).

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Strong rally

• Silver has spiked to 19.85 clearing resistance at 19.72 (see also the declining channel). The move short-term negative pressure. Resistance can be found at 19.93 (15/08/2014 high). Support is now at a distant 18.99 (10/06/2014 low), whereas another resistance stands at 20.18 (08/08/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. However, a strong support area stands between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.