USDCHF: Genuine breakout of the strong resistance at 0.9156?

EUR/USD

Persistent selling pressures underway.

• EUR/USD continues to move lower. The recent new lows confirm persistent selling pressures. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.3297 (22/08/2014 high). Another resistance stands at 1.3336 (12/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700) has been met. Monitor the key support at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low) given the general oversold conditions. A key resistance lies at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Monitor the support at 1.6460.

• GBP/USD is in a declining trend as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.6739. However, the proximity of the key support at 1.6460 and today's potential bullish intraday reversal increase the odds of a short-term rebound. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.6601 (21/08/2014 high) and 1.6679.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low, see also the 200 day moving average) invalidates the positive outlook caused by the previous 4-year highs. However, the lack of medium-term bearish reversal pattern and the short-term oversold conditions do not call for an outright bearish view. A key support stands at 1.6460 (24/03/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Pushing higher.

• USD/JPY continues to move higher, breaching the key resistance at 104.13. Hourly supports can now be found at 103.50 (22/08/2014 low) and 102.91 (intraday low, see also the rising trendline).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The break to the upside out of the consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 favours a resumption of the underlying bullish trend. Strong resistances can be found at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high) and 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Genuine breakout of the strong resistance at 0.9156?

• USD/CHF has moved above the strong resistance at 0.9156 (see also the 38.2% retracement). Supports can now be found at 0.9104 (22/08/2014 low) and 0.9059 (19/08/2014 low).

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. Monitor the test of the strong resistance at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high). Another resistance stands at 0.9250 (07/11/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

The resistance at 1.0986 has held thus far.

• USD/CAD has thus failed to move above the resistance at 1.0986. An hourly support now lies at 1.0928 (22/08/2014 low). Another support stands at 1.0861 (15/08/2014 low), whereas another key resistance can be found at 1.1053.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Trying to form a short-term base.

• AUD/USD made an intraday bullish reversal (hammer) on Thursday, confirming significant buying interest near the support at 0.9239. Monitor the resistance at 0.9345, as a break would validate a short-term double-bottom formation. Another resistance lies at 0.9374. A key support stands at 0.9206.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 (see also the 200 day moving average) and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The current succession of lower highs since early July 2014 favours a bearish bias.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Monitor the resistance at 172.63.

• GBP/JPY is consolidating near the support implied by the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline). Monitor the resistance at 172.63 (07/08/2014 high, see also the declining trendline), as a decisive break of this level would validate a bullish base formation. An hourly support can now be found at 171.63 (22/08/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) holds.

• Today's whipsaw above our trigger point at 172.73 has not activated our long strategy.

Buy stop 2 units at 172.73, Obj: Close 1 unit at 174.20, remaining at 179.15, Stop: 171.88

EUR/JPY

The resistance at 138.03 has held thus far.

• EUR/JPY has improved as can be seen by the break of its declining channel. However, monitor the resistance at 138.03 has held thus far. Hourly supports are now given by the rising trendline (around 137.37) and 136.77 (15/08/2014 low). Another resistance can be found at 138.45.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The recent successful test of the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low) favours further sideways moves. A strong resistance lies at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Weakening.

• EUR/GBP has failed to break the key resistance at 0.8034 and has broken the hourly support at 0.7970 (20/08/2014 low). Other hourly supports are given by the rising trendline (around 0.7948) and 0.7916.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Remains weak.

• EUR/CHF has failed to break the hourly resistance at 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high), confirming persistent short-term selling pressures. Monitor the recent low and support at 1.2086 (15/08/2014 low), as a break would confirm the bearish structure linked to the recent break of the support at 1.2104.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

GOLD (in USD)

Monitor the support implied by the rising trendline.

• Gold has moved below the support at 1279. However, the support implied by the symmetrical triangle (around 1271) has held thus far. Hourly resistances can be found at 1292 (21/08/2014 high) and 1304 (intraday high). Another support lies at 1258 (17/06/2014 low).

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Challenging its recent low at 19.32.

• Silver is thus far holding above its recent low and support at 19.32. However, the short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 19.72 (see also the declining channel). Another support can be found at 18.99 (10/06/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. However, a strong support area stands between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.