USDCHF: Monitor the test of the strong resistance at 0.9156

EUR/USD

The strong support at 1.3296 has been broken.

EUR/USD continues to decline as can be seen by the break of the strong support at 1.3296. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.3336 (12/08/2014 low). An initial resistance can be found at 1.3297 (intraday high).
In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. A downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A key support now stands at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low), whereas a key resistance lies at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Selling pressures remain strong.

GBP/USD made an intraday bearish reversal yesterday, confirming persistent selling pressures. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.6739 (see also the declining trendline). An initial resistance lies at 1.6679. A support can be found at 1.6556.
In the longer term, the break of the key support at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low, see also the 200 day moving average) invalidates the positive outlook caused by the previous 4-year highs. However, the lack of medium-term bearish reversal pattern and the short-term oversold conditions do not call for an outright bearish view. A key support now stands at 1.6460 (24/03/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Approaching the key resistance at 104.13.

USD/JPY continues to rise and is now close to the key resistance at 104.13. Hourly supports can be found at 103.20 (intraday low) and 102.91 (intraday low).
A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The break to the upside out of the consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 favours a resumption of the underlying bullish trend. Strong resistances can be found at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high) and 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).
We have removed our long strategy.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Monitor the test of the strong resistance at 0.9156.

USD/CHF has broken the resistance at 0.9115 (06/08/2014 high) and is now close to the strong resistance at 0.9156 (see also the 38.2% retracement). Hourly supports can be found at 0.9106 (intraday low) and 0.9088 (intraday low).
From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. Monitor the test of the strong resistance at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Challenging its recent highs.

USD/CAD remains well supported. The recent highs at 1.0986 are challenged. Another key resistance stands at 1.1053. An hourly support can be found at 1.0932 (20/08/2014 low). Another support lies at 1.0861 (15/08/2014 low).
In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Drifting lower.

AUD/USD is in a succession of lower highs. Monitor the test of the support at 0.9239. A key support stands at 0.9206. Hourly resistances can be found 0.9292 (intraday high) and 0.9318 (20/08/2014 high).
In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 (see also the 200 day moving average) and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The succession of lower highs since early July 2014 favours a bearish bias.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Trying to form a short-term base.

GBP/JPY is consolidating near the support implied by the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline). A break of the resistance at 172.63 (07/08/2014 high) is needed to confirm a bullish base formation. An hourly support can now be found at 171.68 (18/08/2014 high).
In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) holds.

Buy stop 2 units at 172.73, Obj: Close 1 unit at 174.20, remaining at 179.15, Stop: 171.88

EUR/JPY

Challenging its declining channel.

EUR/JPY continues to bounce and is now challenging the resistance implied by its declining channel (around 137.71). Another resistance stands at 138.03 (01/08/2014 high). Hourly supports lie at 136.77 (15/08/2014 low) and 136.37 (12/08/2014 low).
The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The recent successful test of the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low) favours further sideways moves. A strong resistance lies at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Fading near the resistance at 0.8034.

EUR/GBP is fading near the key resistance at 0.8034. An hourly support now lies at 0.7970 (20/08/2014 low). Another support stands at 0.7916.
In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Failing thus far to break the resistance at 1.2121.

EUR/CHF needs to break the hourly resistance at 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high) to confirm fading short-term selling pressures and to alleviate the bearish outlook linked to the break of the support at 1.2104. Another resistance can be found at 1.2146 (08/08/2014 high). Hourly supports stand at 1.2100 (19/08/2014 low) and 1.2086 (15/08/2014 low).
In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

GOLD (in USD)

Challenging its support at 1279.

Gold is challenging the support at 1279. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 1292 (intraday high) and 1298 (20/08/2014 high). Another support lies at 1258.
In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Moving lower.

Silver has broken the support at 19.47, confirming an underlying downtrend. The shortterm technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 19.77 (see also the declining channel). A key support lies at 18.64.
In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. However, a strong support area stands between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

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