USDCHF: Remains near the high of its rising channel

EUR/USD 

Bouncing near its recent low.

• EUR/USD continues to hold at the lows but rallies have lost momentum. The proximity of the key support at 1.3296, a short-term rebounds are likely. Resistances can be found at 1.3444 and 1.3503 (05/06/2014 low). An hourly support stands at 1.3333 (06/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD 

Recovery rally?

• GBP/USD traded higher today off the recent lows. In the short-term,the key resistance at 1.6893 will be hard to break given the overextended rise. A break of the resistance at 1.6893 (01/08/2014 high) is needed to suggest exhaustion in short-term selling pressures. Another resistance can be found at 1.6955 (30/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A key support stands at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low, see also the 200 day moving average).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.6938, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7167, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.6865

USD/JPY 

Extending higher.

• USD/JPY continues to rise and is now challenging the resistance at 102.46 (07/08/2014 high). Hourly support can be found at 102.00 (07/08/2014 low) and key resistance is located 102.66 (06/08/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. Another resistance can be found at 104.13 (04/04/2014 high), while a major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Buy limit 2 units at 101.10, Obj: Close 1 unit at 102.40, remaining at 103.93, Stop: 100.65

USD/CHF 

Remains near the high of its rising channel.

• USD/CHF displays many significant daily upper shadows near the resistance at 0.9107, suggesting strong selling pressures close to these levels. Monitor the support at 0.9041 (01/08/2014 low), as a break would invalidate the short-term bullish technical structure. Other supports can be found at 0.9008 (24/07/2014 low) and 08969 (17/07/2014 low).

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. As a result, a test of the strong resistance at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Moving sideways near the support at 1.0905

• USD/CAD is further fading near the key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement). Hourly supports stand at 1.0905 (04/08/2014 low) and 1.0845 (intraday low). Another resistance can be found at 1.1053.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Pickup in buying interest.

• AUD/USD has broken the resistance at 0.9287but need to clear hourly resistances can be found at 0.9292 (06/08/2014 low) and 0.9374 to reverse bearish pattern. Dominate bearish reversal pattern suggests a downside risk at 0.9206.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 (see also the 200 day moving average) and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The break of the support at 0.9319 calls for a test of the low of the range.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY 

Challenging resistance

• GBP/JPY continues to rise, breaking hourly resistance at 171.92 and is now challenging the resistance at 172.63 (07/08/2014 high). Hourly support can be found at 169.51 (see also the rising trendline and the 200 day moving average).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY 

Buying interest seems to be stalling. 

• EUR/JPY continue to move within its declining channel and has breached the key support at 136.23. Another support stands at 134.11. Hourly resistances can be found at 137.12 (07/08/2014 high) and 138.03 (01/08/2014 high).

• A decisive break of the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low) would invalidate the long-term succession of higher lows.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance lies at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Extending lower

• EUR/GBP is extending its decline. Hourly supports can be found at 0.7904 (28/07/2014 low) and 0.7874.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Further consolidation likely.

• EUR/CHF continues to rise and is now challenging the resistance at 1.2140 (07/08/2014 low)).The support is located at 1.2122 . A key support stands at 1.2104. Hourly resistances can now be found at 1.2140 (07/08/2014 low) and 1.2155 (01/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

GOLD (in USD)

Consolidating.

• Gold continues to bounce. The hourly resistance at 1311 has been broken. Resistances stand at 1325 and 1345. Hourly supports can be found at 1302 (07/08/2014 low) and 1279.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD) 

Range consolidation.

• Silver continues to bounce within its declining channel. Hourly support lie at 19.40 (see also the declining channel) and 18.23 (05/23/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. However, a strong support area stands between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.