USDCHF: Pullback from key resistance

EUR/USD 

Lower range holds

• EUR/USD is holding the low implied by Wednesday's hammer. Coupled with the proximity of the key support at 1.3296, a shortterm rebound is likely. Resistances can be found at 1.3444 and 1.3503 (05/06/2014 low). An hourly support stands at 1.3333 (06/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD 

Still bearish

• GBP/USD remains weak, as can be seen by the recent new lows (1.6786 intraday) below the hourly support at 1.6814 (01/08/2014 low). A break of the resistance at 1.6893 (01/08/2014 high) is needed to suggest exhaustion in shortterm selling pressures. Another resistance can be found at 1.6955 (30/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A key support stands at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low, see also the 200 day moving average).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.6938, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7167, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.6865.

USD/JPY 

Recovery bounce

• USD/JPY has strengthened but bearish pressures remain. Last week, the hourly support at 101.72 was broken. Another minor support lies at 101.32, while a key support stands at 101.07. Hourly support can be found at 102.00 (07/08/2014 low) and resistance is located 102.46 (07/08/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. Another resistance can be found at 104.13 (04/04/2014 high), while a major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Buy limit 2 units at 101.10, Obj: Close 1 unit at 102.40, remaining at 103.93, Stop: 100.65.

USD/CHF 

Pullback from key resistance

• USD/CHF displays many significant daily upper shadows near the resistance at 0.9107, suggesting strong selling pressures close to these levels. Monitor the support at 0.9041 (01/08/2014 low), as a break would invalidate the short-term bullish technical structure. Other supports can be found at 0.9008 (24/07/2014 low) and 08969 (17/07/2014 low).

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. As a result, a test of the strong resistance at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD 

Sideways below 1.0961 resistance

• USD/CAD is fading near the key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement). Coupled with short-term overbought conditions, a shortterm correction is likely. Hourly supports stand at 1.0905 (04/08/2014 low) and 1.0845 (intraday low). Another resistance can be found at 1.1053.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD 

Moving lower.

• AUD/USD has broken the key support at 0.9319, validating a bearish reversal pattern with a downside risk at 0.9206. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9292 (06/08/2014 low) and 0.9374.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 (see also the 200 day moving average) and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The break of the support at 0.9319 calls for a test of the low of the range.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Bearish pause ahead of key support

• GBP/JPY continues to weaken after the break of the key support at 172.38, as can be seen by the break of the rising channel. However, prices are now close to the strong support at 169.51 (see also the rising trendline and the 200 day moving average). Hourly resistances can be found at 171.92 (intraday high) and 172.63 (07/08/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY 

Dominate bearish channel

• EUR/JPY continue to move within its declining channel and has breached the key support at 136.23. Another support stands at 134.11. Hourly resistances can be found at 137.12 (07/08/2014 high) and 138.03 (01/08/2014 high).

• A decisive break of the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low) would invalidate the long-term succession of higher lows.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP 

Breaking above resistance

• EUR/GBP is trying to form a short-term base. Monitor the resistance at 0.7981, as a clear break would validate a short-term bullish head and shoulders. Hourly supports can be found at 0.7904 (28/07/2014 low) and 0.7874.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF 

Bearish pressure building 

• EUR/CHF has broken the support at 1.2134, indicating persistent selling pressures. The support at 1.2122 is challenged. A key support stands at 1.2104. Hourly resistances can now be found at 1.2140 (07/08/2014 low) and 1.2155 (01/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD) 

Improving.

• Gold continues to improve after the break of its short-term declining channel. The hourly resistance at 1311 has been broken. Resistances stand at 1325 and 1345. Hourly supports can be found at 1302 (07/08/2014 low) and 1279.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD) 

Buyers disappear

• Silver continues to bounce within its declining channel. Hourly support lie at 19.40 (see also the declining channel) and 18.23 (05/23/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. However, a strong support area stands between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.