USDCHF: Short-term indecision?

EUR/USD

Unimpressive bounce thus far.

• EUR/USD is in an underlying downtrend. However, the last two days have displayed large lower shadows, indicating potential short-term exhaustion in selling pressures near the hourly support at 1.3367. A break of the initial resistance at 1.3415 is needed to suggest a pickup in buying interest. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high) and 1.3485 (24/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk implied by the double-top formation (1.3379) has been met. However, another downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Challenging its rising channel.

• GBP/USD continues its relentless decline since its mid-July peak. The overextended decline and the underlying uptrend continue to favour a rebound in the next few days. However, the support implied by the rising channel is challenged and the short-term declining trend is intact as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.6928 (intraday high). Another hourly resistance lies at 1.6955 (30/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A key support stands at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low).

• We have updated our long strategy.

Buy stop 2 units at 1.6938, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7167, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.6847.

USD/JPY

Challenging the key resistance at 103.02.

• USD/JPY is challenging the key resistance at 103.02 after its recent sharp rise. The current mild correction in price suggests a persistent buying interest. Hourly supports stand at 102.73 (31/07/2014 low) and 102.36 (18/06/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. Another resistance can be found at 104.13 (04/04/2014 high), while a major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Short-term indecision?

• USD/CHF has broken the resistance at 0.9037 (see also the declining channel), opening the way for a medium-term rise towards the strong resistance at 0.9156. In the shorter term, yesterday's long legged doji suggests market indecision. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9065 (30/07/2014 low) and 0.9035 (28/07/2014 low).

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. A strong resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Approaching the key resistance at 1.0961.

• USD/CAD is bouncing sharply. Monitor the test of the key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement). An hourly support can be found at 1.0877 (31/07/2014 low). Another support stands at 1.0797 (29/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Pushing lower.

• AUD/USD has broken the key support at 0.9319, validating a bearish reversal pattern with a downside risk at 0.9206. Hourly resistances now lie at 0.9317 (intraday high) and 0.9355 (intraday high, see also the declining trendline).

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The break of the support at 0.9319 calls for a test of the low of the range.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

A bottom is likely in place.

• GBP/JPY has moved higher after days of indecision, suggesting that a bottom has likely been made at 172.61. Hourly resistances can be found at 174.22 (30/07/2014 high) and 174.57. An hourly support can be found at 173.41 (31/07/2014 low, see also the 50% retracement of the current rebound).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds.

Long 2 units at 173.69, Obj: Close 1 unit at 175.24, remaining at 179.80, Stop: 173.00 (Entered: 2014-07-30).

EUR/JPY

Challenging the resistance at 137.83.

• EUR/JPY has broken the resistance at 137.34, confirming short-term exhaustion in selling pressures. However, prices need to break the resistance at 138.45 to invalidate the current declining channel. The hourly resistance at 137.83 (50% retracement) is challenged. Hourly supports can be found at 137.51 (31/07/2014 low) and 137.34 (22/07/2014 high).

• The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Monitor the resistance at 0.7940.

• EUR/GBP has moved out of its declining channel but has thus failed to break the resistance at 0.7940. Another resistance lies at 0.7981 (see also the declining trendline). A break of the hourly support at 0.7904 (28/07/2014 low) is needed to suggest the end of the recent rebound. Another hourly support stands at 0.7874.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

The resistance at 1.2178 has held thus far.

• EUR/CHF has broken the resistance at 1.2166, confirming an improving technical structure. The double-bottom formation favours a further rise towards the resistance at 1.2200. However, the resistance at 1.2178 has held thus far. Hourly supports are given by 1.2160 (30/07/2014 low) and the rising trendline (around 1.2151).

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Making new lows.

• Gold remains in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since its peak at 1345. Hourly supports are given by the 61.8% retracement (1281) and 1258. Hourly resistances can be found at 1299 (31/07/2014 high) and 1311 (23/07/2014 high).

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Challenging its recent lows.

• Silver continues to move within its declining channel and is now challenging its support at 20.31. A resistance stands at 20.82. Another support stands at 20.00.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.