USDCHF: Pausing near the key resistance at 0.9037

EUR/USD

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/USD has broken the key support area defined by 1.3503 (see also the long-term rising trendline from the July 2012 low) and 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low), confirming an underlying downtrend. Hourly resistances for a short-term rebound can be found at 1.3496 (intraday high) and 1.3513 (21/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. Downside risks are given by 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) and 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Declining further.

• GBP/USD is in a corrective phase. An hourly support can be found at 1.6953. The key support at 1.6923 is expected to cap short-term downside risks. Hourly resistances now stand at 1.7054 (24/07/2014 high, see also the declining channel) and 1.7118 (18/07/2014 high). Another resistance stands at 1.7192.

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.7202, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7328, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.7158.

USD/JPY

Challenging the resistance at 101.86.

• USD/JPY continues to improve and is now challenging the top of its horizontal range defined by the support at 101.07 and the resistance at 101.86 (see also the declining channel). Hourly supports can be found at 101.60 (22/07/2014 high) and 101.32 (23/07/2014 low). Another resistance lies at 102.36.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Pausing near the key resistance at 0.9037.

• USD/CHF is consolidating near the key resistance at 0.9037 (see also the declining channel). An hourly support can be found at 0.9001 (intraday low). Another support lies at 0.8969 (17/07/2014 low).

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 (04/04/2014 high) suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, a break of the resistance at 0.9037 would favour a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. A strong resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Persistent buying interest near the support at 1.0710.

• USD/CAD remains below its declining trendline. However, the support at 1.0710 has held thus far, indicating persistent buying interest. A key resistance lies at 1.0814 (previous support, see also the 200 day moving average). Another hourly support lies at 1.0694 (08/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0637) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Exhaustion in buying interest?

• AUD/USD has failed to hold above the resistance at 0.9457, suggesting a false breakout. Monitor the support implied by the short-term rising trendline (around 0.9398). Another support lies at 0.9380 (intraday low). An hourly resistance now stands at 0.9471.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. A break of the support at 0.9319 is needed to suggest significant exhaustion in the buying interest.

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

Short-term indecision.

• GBP/JPY remains weak. However, the recent daily small real bodies (dojis) indicate short-term indecision. A break of the hourly resistance at 173.59 (see also the declining trendline) is needed to improve the short-term technical structure. Another resistance stands at 174.57. A support stands at 172.38.

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds.

• We have updated our long strategy.

Buy stop 2 units at 173.69, Obj: Close 1 unit at 175.24, remaining at 179.80, Stop: 173.00.

EUR/JPY

Bouncing near the key support at 136.23.

• EUR/JPY is bouncing near the key support at 136.23. Hourly resistances for a temporary bounce are given by 137.34 (22/07/2014 high) and 137.83 (50% retracement of the decline from 139.28).

• The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Bouncing.

• EUR/GBP is bouncing. The hourly resistance at 0.7934 has been breached. Other resistances are given by the top of the declining channel (around 0.7946) and 0.7981. An hourly support lies at 0.7874.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Challenging the resistance at 1.2158.

• EUR/CHF is moving within its horizontal range defined by the support at 1.2134 and the resistance at 1.2166. A break of the hourly resistance at 1.2158 would signal increasing buying interest. However, the aforementioned horizontal range needs to be broken to negate the downside risk at 1.2104 implied by the previous symmetrical triangle.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

The support at 1292 has been breached.

• Gold further weakened yesterday, moving below the support at 1292. However, the lack of follow-through suggests persistent buying interest. An hourly resistance can be found at 1302 (22/07/2014 low). Another resistance stands at 1325. Supports now lie at 1288 (24/07/2014 low) and 1258.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Bearish breakout of the support at 20.58.

• Silver has broken the supports at 20.74 and 20.58. A key support stands at 20.00. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 20.58 (previous support) and 20.76 (intraday low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.