USDCHF: Challenging a key resistance area

EUR/USD

Pushing lower.

• EUR/USD has broken the support at 1.3576, confirming a bearish bias. A further short-term decline towards the key support at 1.3503 is likely. An hourly resistance lies at 1.3587 (intraday low), while a key resistance now stands at 1.3651. An hourly support can be found at 1.3536 (17/06/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. A long-term downside risk at 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3775. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Failure to hold above the resistance at 1.7180.

• GBP/USD moved sharply higher yesterday, only to fade near the resistance at 1.7180. Hourly supports can be found at 1.7110 (61.8% retracement of yesterday's rise) and 1.7060. An hourly resistance now stands at 1.7192.

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

• The failure to hold above the resistance at 1.7180 has stopped our long position.

Our long position has been stopped.

USD/JPY

Approaching the resistance at 101.86.

• USD/JPY continues to bounce. Monitor the resistance at 101.86 (09/07/2014 high). Hourly supports can be found at 101.44 (15/07/2014 low) and 101.07. A key resistance stands at 102.36 (see also the declining trendline).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Challenging a key resistance area.

• USD/CHF has broken out of its declining channel and is now challenging the key resistance area between 0.8959 and 0.8975 (see also the 61.8% retracement). Another resistance stands at 0.9013. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8938 (09/07/2014 high) and 0.8898.

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Monitor the key resistance at 1.0814.

• USD/CAD continues to bounce, breaking the resistance at 1.0752 (25/06/2014 high). However, the upside potential implied by the recent base formation has been reached and a key resistance stands at 1.0814 (previous support, see also the declining trendline and the 200 day moving average). Hourly supports can be found at 1.0710 (14/07/2014 low) and 1.0694 (08/07/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0656) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Monitor the key support at 0.9319.

• AUD/USD is approaching the key support at 0.9319. Monitor this level as the technical configuration since June looks like a bearish head and shoulders. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9409 (11/07/2014 high) and 0.9457.

• In the longer term, the false breakout at 0.9461 confirms a limited upside potential, favouring a bearish bias. However, a break of the key support at 0.9206 (03/04/2014 low) is needed to open the way for a new significant phase of decline.

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

Pickup in buying interest.

• GBP/JPY has improved, breaking the resistance at 173.89 (38.2% retracement of the recent decline) and breaching the resistance at 174.43. Hourly supports are given by the shortterm rising trendline (around 173.40) and 172.97 (10/07/2014 low). Hourly resistances now stand at 174.57 (08/07/2014 high) and 175.37.

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) holds.

Buy stop 2 units at 175.47, Obj: Close 1 unit at 179.80, remaining at 183.85, Stop: 174.47.

EUR/JPY

Remains weak.

• EUR/JPY's short-term technical structure remains weak as long as prices remain below the resistance at 138.83 (07/07/2014 high, see also the declining trendline). Furthermore, a key resistance stands at 139.28. The hourly support at 138.05 (11/07/2014 high) has been broken. Another support lies at 137.50.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong support can already be found at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Making new lows.

• EUR/GBP declined sharply yesterday. The support at 0.7915 has been breached, confirming an underlying downtrend. A resistance stands at 0.7981, while a break of the hourly resistance at 0.8034 is needed to invalidate the bearish technical structure.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8153 (29/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Moving sideways.

• EUR/CHF is moving sideways within the horizontal range between the support at 1.2134 and the resistance at 1.2166. A break to the upside is needed to improve the technical structure and negate the implied downside risk at 1.2104. Another support lies at 1.2122.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Bearish breakout of the support at 1305.

• Gold has broken the support at 1305, confirming persistent selling pressures. Other supports can be found at 1285 and 1258. A short-term bearish stance is favoured as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1314 (15/07/2014 high). A key resistance now stands at 1345.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Monitor the support at 20.58.

• Silver weakened further yesterday. The support at 20.83 has been broken. Monitor the support at 20.58. Another support lies at 20.00. An hourly resistance can now be found at 21.08.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.