USDCHF: Moving lower

EUR/USD

Bullish breakout at 1.3677.

• EUR/USD has broken to upside out of its horizontal range defined by 1.3503 and 1.3677. The short-term bullish momentum is intact as long as the hourly support at 1.3651 (previous resistance) holds. Resistances now stand at 1.3734 and 1.3775.

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. A long-term downside risk at 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3775. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Making fresh 5 year highs.

• GBP/USD has broken the major resistance at 1.7043. A short-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 1.7007 (27/06/2014 low) holds. Another support lies at 1.6953 (25/06/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Further short-term weakness remained favoured.

• USD/JPY has broken the support implied by the 200 day moving average, confirming persistent selling pressures. A further decline towards the strong support at 100.76 is likely. Hourly resistances stand at 101.74 (27/06/2014 high) and 101.89 (26/06/2014 high, see also the declining channel).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. A break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Moving lower.

• USD/CHF has broken the supports at 0.8908 (05/06/2014 low, see also the 38.2% retracement) and 0.8883. A break of the hourly resistance at 0.8915 (30/06/2014 high) is needed to negate the short-term bearish trend. A support area now stands between 0.8841 and 0.8831 (61.8% retracement). A key resistance lies at 0.8975.

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

• The persistent weakness has forced us to close the remaining of our long position.

Our remaining position has been stopped.

USD/CAD

No real buying interest thus far.

• USD/CAD is testing the key support implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0638). Another strong support stands at 1.0559. An hourly resistance for a short-term bounce can be found at 1.0752 (25/06/2014 high). An initial resistance now lies at 1.0697 (27/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom with a minimum target at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0632) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Challenging the key resistance at 0.9461.

• AUD/USD has broken the resistance at 0.9438, validating a short-term ascending triangle. Monitor the test of the key resistance at 0.9461. A short-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 0.9388 (30/06/2014 low, see also the rising trendline) holds. An initial support lies at 0.9439 (30/06/2014 high).

• In the medium-term, prices are moving within a horizontal range between 0.9206 and 0.9461. The direction of the breakout is likely to give the next significant trend. Other resistances can be found at 0.9543 (06/11/2013 high) and 0.9758 (23/10/2013 high).

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

Buying interest remains strong.

• GBP/JPY bounced sharply yesterday, breaking the resistance at 173.45 (26/06/2014 high) and invalidating a bearish head and shoulders formation. Resistances now stand at 174.10 and 174.85. Supports lie at 172.38 and 170.97.

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) and the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline from the February 2013 low) holds. A key resistance lies at 174.85 (02/01/2014 high).

Buy stop 2 units at 174.20, Obj: Close 1 unit at 174.95, remaining at 179.80, Stop: 173.59.

EUR/JPY

Grinding higher.

• EUR/JPY has breached the resistance at 138.89. However, prices remain thus far below the resistance implied by its 200 day moving average (around 139.13), indicating persistent selling pressures. Another resistance can be found at 139.43 (10/06/2014 high). Hourly supports stand at 138.35 (intraday low) and 137.73.

• Despite the strong support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Persistent selling pressures underway.

• EUR/GBP continues to consolidate near the key support at 0.7961 (08/11/2012 low). A break of the hourly resistance at 0.8033 (intraday low) is needed to indicate some exhaustion in the selling pressures. Other hourly resistances are given by 0.8065 (12/06/2014 high) and the declining trendline (around 0.8082).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8184 (14/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Challenging the support at 1.2141.

• EUR/CHF continues to slowly decline towards the support at 1.2104. The support at 1.2141 is challenged. Another support can be found at 1.2122 (14/03/2014 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2166 (27/06/2014 high) and 1.2178 (20/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Challenging the resistance at 1331.

• Gold improved yesterday, breaking a shortterm symmetrical triangle. The key resistance at 1331 (see also the 61.8% retracement) is challenged. Another resistance lies at 1343. The short-term trend is positive as long as the support at 1305 holds. Another support can be found at 1285.

• Longer term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Consolidating.

• Silver remains well supported despite the current overextended rise. Monitor the current consolidation phase between 20.71 and 21.17. Another support lies at 20.58, whereas another resistance can be found at 21.79.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.